Portugal vs Denmark Prediction, Betting Tips & Preview

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Portugal

vs

Denmark

KickoffSaturday 14 November 2026, 7:45pm

VenueEstádio Nacional do Jamor

CompetitionUEFA Nations League

Portugal are cruising. Four wins from four in this Nations League group, already through to the quarter finals, and now embarking on a genuinely historic moment as they officially step into life without Cristiano Ronaldo. Jorge Jesus has built something that does not rely on one man, and the results this campaign have shown exactly that. Denmark, by contrast, are still fighting. Brian Riemer’s side sit six points back and need results to go their way across their final two fixtures just to secure that second qualification spot. The gap in context between these two sides heading into this game could not be much wider.

What makes this interesting, though, is that Denmark are not a soft touch. They have shown enough quality in this group to suggest they can hurt Portugal, and with their Nations League future on the line, Riemer will have his side wound up and ready. Portugal may have already wrapped up top spot, but Jesus will not want his team sleepwalking into the quarter finals on the back of a slip here. There is pride and momentum at stake, and a new era to set the tone for.

Portugal vs Denmark Match Details

This UEFA Nations League Group A4 fixture takes place at the Estadio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica in Lisbon. Portugal have already secured their place in the quarter finals and sit six points clear at the top of the group. Denmark are second and need points from this game and their final fixture against Norway to guarantee their own progression. It is a dead rubber for one side and a must not lose for the other, which gives the evening a fascinating edge.

Team News

Portugal are dealing with a couple of notable absences, and of course this is the first fixture the Selecao will play without Ronaldo in the squad following his retirement from international football. Beyond that landmark moment, Jesus has selection headaches to work through on the right side of his team.

• Joao Cancelo is suspended and will miss the game
• Francisco Conceicao is also suspended and unavailable
• Nuno Mendes is out through injury, which opens the door for Monaco’s Flavio Nazinho at left back, potentially on debut
• Cristiano Ronaldo has retired from international duty and is not in the squad

Denmark have a cleaner bill of health in terms of suspensions, though six players are one booking away from missing a future game, so Riemer may need to manage that carefully. Patrick Dorgu is absent having only just recovered from the hamstring injury he picked up during the last international break, which is a blow going forward.

• Patrick Dorgu out through injury
• No suspension issues for the visitors
• Six players on a yellow card warning

Predicted Lineups

Jesus looks set to line up with Diogo Costa in goal and a back four of Dalot, Dias, Veiga and debutant Nazinho filling in at left back for the injured Mendes. The midfield three of Vitinha, Bruno Fernandes and Joao Neves has the quality to control possession and create chances, while Joao Felix and Pedro Neto are expected to provide the width and creativity ahead of them. Goncalo Ramos should lead the line through the middle.

Riemer will likely go with Hermansen between the sticks and a back four of Kristensen, Andersen, Provstgaard and Maehle. Hjulmand and Hojbjerg should anchor the midfield with Isaksen and Daramy adding legs and energy in the more advanced positions. Hojlund leads the attack with Victor Froholdt expected to get a start alongside him in an attacking role.

Recent Form

Portugal have been genuinely impressive in this Nations League campaign. Four games, four wins, 12 points, and they have already wrapped up the group before the final round of fixtures. That included a 4 to 2 win over Denmark in the reverse fixture in early October, as well as back to back victories over Norway and a win against Wales. This is a team playing with confidence and structure, and Jesus has them functioning as a proper unit rather than a side built around one superstar.

It is also worth remembering that Portugal won the 2024 to 25 Nations League, beating Spain in the final on penalties. They have now won the competition twice, also lifting the trophy in the inaugural 2018 to 19 edition. So this is not a squad that lacks experience of going deep in this tournament. The hunger to do it again looks very real.

Denmark have had a more turbulent campaign. They lost their opener 3 to 2 against Norway before beating Wales 2 to 0, then suffered that heavy 4 to 2 reverse to Portugal, and most recently ground out a 1 to 0 win over Wales. Two wins and two defeats leaves them second on six points, three ahead of both Wales and Norway with two games to go. The 1 to 0 win over Wales was not vintage stuff but it was what they needed, and it has left them in control of their own fate. They need this game to go well.

Head-to-Head Record

Portugal have comfortably had the better of this fixture across the years. Out of 19 previous meetings, Denmark have only come out on top four times. The most recent of those victories was a 1 to 0 first leg win in a Nations League quarter final back in March 2025, which at first glance looked like a decent result for the Danes. What followed told the real story, though. Portugal went to Denmark and won the second leg 5 to 2 to progress 5 to 3 on aggregate and knock the Danes out in emphatic fashion.

That sequence sums up the pattern between these sides. Denmark can nick a result against Portugal when the momentum is with them, but sustaining it over a full tie or when Portugal are really switched on is a different matter entirely. The reverse fixture in this very group produced another reminder of that, with Portugal winning 4 to 2 at the start of October.

Key Stats

• Portugal are unbeaten in their last five meetings with Denmark, winning four of those
• Portugal beat Denmark 4 to 2 in the reverse fixture in October, scoring four goals in a Nations League group game for the second time this campaign
• Denmark have won just four of 19 all time meetings with Portugal
• Rasmus Hojlund has 16 goals in 39 international appearances, an impressive record for a player of his age

Portugal vs Denmark Betting Tips

Portugal are strong favourites here and rightly so, but Denmark have enough about them to contribute to an open game rather than simply rolling over. The Danes need something from this fixture, they have a striker in Hojlund who can find the net at international level, and history shows they are capable of scoring against this Portugal side. With that in mind, the value is in markets that account for goals at both ends rather than backing Portugal to shut the game out completely.

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) Prediction

Yes, back both teams to score. Denmark are not here to park the bus. They need points, they have a goalscorer in form at the top of their attack, and Portugal gave them two goals in the reverse fixture. Jesus’s side will score, that feels nailed on, but Denmark have the attacking quality to respond and they showed in that first meeting they are not easily shut out.

Over and Under Goals Prediction

Over 2.5 goals looks a solid call here. The reverse fixture produced six goals, and while that was partly an afternoon when things opened up quickly, both sides have the attacking personnel to generate chances. Portugal have been free scoring throughout this group and Denmark will not be sitting deep. Take the overs.

First Goalscorer Prediction

Goncalo Ramos is the pick here. With Ronaldo gone and Conceicao suspended, Ramos steps into the spotlight as the focal point of this Portugal attack, and he will be desperate to make a statement in this new era. He is sharp, he runs the channels well and he holds the ball up for Felix and Neto to work around him. If Portugal get in behind early, Ramos is the man most likely to be on the end of it.

Corners Prediction

Back over 9.5 corners. Portugal play with width through Neto and Felix and they will be generating crosses and cutbacks throughout. Denmark, pressing for a result, will also be getting forward and looking for set pieces when their direct play breaks down. High corner counts tend to follow games where one side is chasing the game, and Denmark may well find themselves in that position from midway through the second half.

Bet Builder Tip

These three picks complement each other perfectly, with a goal heavy game in Lisbon providing the foundation and Ramos leading the charge for the hosts in what is a landmark night for Portuguese football.

Final Match Prediction

Portugal win this, but not without Denmark making them work for it. Jesus’s side are too well organised, too talented and too motivated by the new chapter they are opening to slip up at home. The question is whether Denmark can keep it competitive long enough to nick a goal, and on balance I think they can. The Danes have the attacking tools to threaten, particularly through Hojlund, and they will be throwing everything at this.

Portugal to win 3 to 1 is the call. The hosts assert their dominance without it ever being a comfortable evening, Denmark get the goal their effort warrants, and Ramos marks his moment in the spotlight with a finish that sets the tone for where this team goes next.

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