Libya vs Tunisia Prediction, Betting Tips & Preview

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Libya

vs

Tunisia

KickoffTuesday 17 November 2026, 4:00pm

VenueBenghazi International Stadium

CompetitionAfrican Cup of Nations Qualifying

Libya beat Tunisia on Friday. Read that again. Libya beat Tunisia 2-0 in Sfax, in what was described as the heaviest home defeat the Eagles of Carthage have suffered in AFCON qualifying in over 25 years. So when these two sides line up again just days later, the question every bettor is asking is simple: was that a genuine shift in power between these two Mediterranean rivals, or was it a freak result that Tunisia will correct the moment they cross the border? This preview digs into the form, the context and the numbers to help you work out where the value sits.

Libya vs Tunisia Match Details

This is a Group H Africa Cup of Nations qualifying fixture played at the 11 June Stadium in Tripoli. Libya host Tunisia in the second leg of a double header that has already thrown up one of the genuine shocks of the qualifying round, and the atmosphere inside that stadium is going to be a world away from the tension Tunisia faced at home in Sfax.

Team News

Both squads have named 27-man groups for this double header, so there is cover throughout. The key concern for Libya is Hamdou El Houni, who scored the second goal in Sfax before being forced off with an injury. Whether he recovers in time will shape how dangerous the hosts look on the break. Tunisia are without Elias Achouri, who was ruled out before the first leg and has not travelled.

• Hamdou El Houni (Libya) – injury doubt after coming off in Sfax
• Elias Achouri (Tunisia) – ruled out, not in the squad
• Ali Maaloul (Tunisia) – picked up a yellow card for the foul that led to Libya’s penalty in the first leg, no suspension concern but worth watching

Predicted Lineups

Libya gaffer Youssouph Dabo will want to keep things tight and compact, leaning heavily on the counter attacking structure that caused Tunisia so many problems in the first leg. Ezoo El Mariamy leads the line with pace, and if El Houni is passed fit he slots back in behind. If not, Dabo has options from his home based players.

Libya: Al-Tihar; Jaddour, Elfadli, Musrati, Salama; Al-Shuraimi, Al-Hbeishi; Eissa, Ellafi, Tajouri; El Maremi

Tunisia coach Mouine Chaabani has publicly admitted the defeat was deserved, which suggests he may look to restore some defensive structure rather than go gung ho. Expect experienced heads like Ferjani Sassi, Aissa Laidouni and Montassar Talbi to be leaned on heavily, with the full backs pushed forward to get crosses into the box.

Tunisia: Dahmen; Ghram, Talbi, Maaloul; Drager, Laidouni, Ben Romdhane, Gharbi; Letaief, Saad; Chaouat

Recent Form

Tunisia’s current run of form is genuinely alarming for a nation that qualified for each of the last 17 AFCON finals. Nine games without a win. Nine. That includes a 5-1 hammering by Sweden, a 4-0 defeat to Japan and a 3-1 loss to the Netherlands at the 2026 World Cup, where they finished bottom of their group without picking up a single point. Back in September they drew 1-1 with Uganda and 2-2 with Botswana in qualifying. And then came Friday’s 2-0 defeat at home in Sfax. The pattern here is not a blip. This is a team in serious structural decline.

Libya’s journey to this point has been bumpier but the momentum is now firmly with them. They opened the campaign with a dramatic 2-2 draw against Botswana, coming from two goals down in the final minutes through Al-Habashi and a stoppage time penalty from El Mariamy. They then lost 1-0 in Uganda. So heading into Friday’s game, they had one point from two matches and Dabo had not won a competitive game since taking over. What happened in Sfax was not just a result, it was a statement. Two goals, a clean sheet, and the Tunisian crowd throwing bottles by the final whistle.

Libya currently sit third in Group H but the gap between them and Tunisia at the bottom is now significant in terms of confidence and momentum. With only the top team from the group qualifying automatically for AFCON alongside co-hosts Uganda, every point matters. Libya are now pushing for that automatic spot. Tunisia are genuinely in danger of ending a 17-tournament qualifying streak.

Head-to-Head Record

Tunisia had won the previous six meetings before Friday’s result, so this was not exactly a rivalry where Libya had shown they could mix it. Those wins included a 5-2 victory for Tunisia away from home in 2021 and 3-0 and 1-0 victories in 2023. On paper, the head to head screams Tunisia. In practice, the last result has completely flipped the narrative.

The key caveat here is venue. Several of those Tunisia wins came on neutral or home turf. Libya are now hosting this return leg with a raucous crowd behind them, fresh off their biggest qualifying result in years. That changes the dynamic considerably.

Key Stats

• Tunisia have gone nine games without a win across all competitions
• Libya came from 2-0 down to draw with Botswana, showing real character and attacking threat from deep
• Tunisia have scored just three goals in three qualifiers while conceding five, including two in Sfax on Friday

Libya vs Tunisia Betting Tips

The betting angle here is shaped almost entirely by Tunisia’s collapse and Libya’s growing belief. The hosts have shown they can hurt Tunisia on the counter, they have a crowd that will be electric after Friday’s result, and they face opponents who are low on confidence and historically poor at breaking teams down from open play. This does not feel like a fixture where Tunisia suddenly rediscover their best football.

Correct Score Prediction

A narrow home win feels right here. Libya will defend their advantage from the first leg, absorb pressure and hit on the break. Something like 1-0 to Libya suits the pattern of this tie perfectly, keeping Tunisia scoreless again and extending Libya’s momentum through qualifying.

Over and Under Goals Prediction

Under 2.5 goals. Tunisia have only managed three goals across three qualifiers and their creativity in the final third has been genuinely poor. Libya are well organised defensively and will not need to open up and chase the game. This one has low scoring written all over it.

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) Prediction

No. Tunisia need to score but their recent record strongly suggests they will struggle. Libya kept a clean sheet in Sfax and they have the defensive shape and counter attacking threat to do it again. BTTS No is the call.

Cards Prediction

Expect cards. The first leg ended with Tunisian players and staff confronting the referee, supporters throwing bottles and flares being set off in the stands. The frustration from the Tunisia camp has been very public. Add in that Libya will be defending a lead and stopping Tunisia breaking them down quickly, and the tackle count in midfield is going to be high. Over 3.5 cards looks a reasonable shout.

First Goalscorer Prediction

Ezoo El Mariamy is the standout pick for first goalscorer. The Al Hilal Benghazi forward has already shown he can score from the spot and his pace on the counter is exactly what Libya will be looking to use against a Tunisia side that has to push forward and leave space in behind. He is Libya’s most dangerous outlet.

Corners Prediction

Over 8.5 corners. Tunisia will dominate the ball and generate corners as they press for a way back into this tie across both legs combined. Even if they are not creating clear chances, they will be winning corners through crosses and long balls into the area. Libya sitting deep will invite that kind of pressure.

Bet Builder Tip

Libya winning to nil fits perfectly with their defensive solidity and Tunisia’s attacking struggles, while the cards line reflects the tension and frustration this fixture is almost guaranteed to carry after the events of the first leg.

Final Match Prediction

Libya 1-0 Tunisia. The hosts will set up defensively, stay compact and trust El Mariamy and the counter to do the damage. Tunisia have the better squad on paper but form, momentum and the hostile atmosphere in Tripoli all point one way. Chaabani’s side need a performance and a result to keep their extraordinary AFCON qualifying record alive, but nothing in their recent run suggests they are capable of delivering either right now.

Libya to win and extend what is becoming a genuinely historic run for Libyan football. Back them on a low scoring home win and do not be surprised if the Tunisia bench has a very long evening.

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