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WBC Interim super-welterweight champion Vergil Ortiz Jr (23-0, 21 KOs) defends his title for a second time to Erickson ‘The Hammer’ Lubin (27-2, 19 KOs) in the main event of Golden Boy’s Texas bill, titled ‘Dare to Enter’, on Saturday, November 8, live on DAZN.
A seven-time national amateur champion, Vergil Ortiz Jr won the WBC Interim belt from Serhii Bohachuk in August 2024, despite going down twice in rounds one and eight, but the latter looked more like a slip.
‘The Texas Machine’ then defended the honours in February this year against the Israil Madrimov in Riyadh via unanimous decision.
Now 27, Ortiz Jr was flying at welterweight until a skin condition kept him out of action for 19 months between 2022-2024. When he returned to the ring, it was up at super-welterweight, where he instantly made an impact with two successive first-round KOs, taking just five minutes in total to dispatch of Fredrick Lawson and Thomas Dulorme.
His next two bouts with the aforementioned Bohachuk and Madrimov went the distance, making him four fights unbeaten at 154lbs.
Erickson Lubin enjoyed a stellar amateur career with a record of 143-7. He reached 18-0 as a pro, before he was KO’d in one round by WBC world super-welterweight champion, Jermell Charlo, when he was in red-hot form in 2017.
He bounced back with six straight wins, scalping the likes of Ishe Smith, Terrell Gausha and Jeison Rosario, until his challenge for the WBC Interim super-welterweight title against Sebastian Fundora in 2022 ended after nine bruising rounds.
Before his corner pulled him out of the bout, Lubin floored Fundora with a series of jackhammer shots to the head that forced the champion back onto the seat of his pants. A true champ, ‘The Towering Inferno’ came back strongly to hand ‘The Hammer’ his second stoppage defeat.
Ortiz has a high guard and uses it to get in close to his opponents where he likes to throw curved shots in hooks and uppercuts. He has a great engine, able to push his opponents back all fight long and keep going to the last. He makes his opponents work at a high pace and intensity from the first second of the fight. He has raw Texan-Mexican power too, so far able to stop 21 of his 23 foes, clocking up a 91% KO ratio. His shots are not only strong and powerful, they’re fast too.
Lubin is relentless and powerful, but he can be guilty of staying put in one spot for too long and receiving excessive punishment. Four from his last three victories have ended in a knockout. When he gets the bit between his teeth, there is no stopping him.
It’s likely these two will meet in the middle and produce fireworks on the Bonfire Night weekend. Both boxers like to fight up close and exchange blow for blow, so there will be guaranteed sparks flying on Fireworks Night.
For me, Ortiz has more in his locker to draw from. He won’t leave his head on the firing line while they go toe-to-toe as much as Lubin is likely to. Ortiz has more moves and fluidity, able to land shots then roll under or spin off.
I think Lubin just lingers too long and doesn’t move his head as much as he should, and will therefore receive more punishment during their exchanges, which are bound to be brutal, and take their toll on both boxers over time.
Ortiz’s last two wins up at the highest level at super-welterweight have ended via points after 12 close rounds, suggesting his skill and power are not as devastating now that he’s operating 7lbs heavier at the highest level.
However, this fight is going to see a lot of punches landed, on each fighter, so a knockout is just as likely an outcome as another points decision is.
I’m picking Ortiz to either drop and stop Lubin with one of his pinpoint body blows within around six rounds or to batter him into submission in the second half of the contest.
I wouldn’t rule out an early knockdown from Lubin, as the pace will be intense and heavy from the first bell, so either one could score an early knockdown before they get settled into their stride.
Prediction: Ortiz to win
Extra Tip: Ortiz to win via KO
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Tim Rickson is the WhichBookie boxing analyst who joined the team midway through 2022 and will be providing boxing betting tips throughout the year for all of the big fights.
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If you’d like to back any of the selections, we recommend a bookmaker to do so with. These are usually the bookies offering the best odds on the selection at the time of posting the tip but it may be worth checking other bookies in case the odds have changed. There may also be betting offers associated with the tip that are only available with specific bookmakers that are worth taking into consideration.
We never recommend an actual stake to use for each bet as this will vary between people depending on the size of their betting bank. Never bet more than you can afford to lose and always stick to your staking plan.
WhichBookie boxing analyst Tim Rickson will publish tips whenever he finds value in a bet. If there is a big fight coming up, it’s likely that he will cover it but generally, they’ll be posted whenever a good bet comes about.
Many of the big boxing matches are only available via Pay Per View. However, you may be able to find streams of some of the less-popular fights via the Bet365 Live Streaming service. Bet365 provides over 100,000 live streams of sporting events every year and is regarded as one of the best services for streaming sports online without charge.
There are several options when it comes to betting on boxing, and the more you know, the better your chances of success. We will now go into more detail about some of the different betting markets that you will find, and discuss a few potential strategies you could use.
As with most sports, the outright market is probably the simplest, because you’re just betting on who will win the fight. There are no other criteria to consider, other than the fact that with many of the best bookies for boxing, you can also bet on the draw. However, draws in boxing are very rare and not many people tend to back this outcome.
Bear in mind that in many fights, one boxer tends to be a heavy favourite and it’s usually quite easy to pick the winner. There don’t tend to be that many shock results. Therefore, the odds on the favourite are often very low, even if you use the bookie with the best odds as described earlier in the article.
If you’re happy betting at short odds, you can certainly get a good success rate simply by backing short price favourites in boxing. But many people prefer to look for bigger wins. So you may sometimes need to look at some of the other markets to get a better return on your bet.
This market lets you choose not only who will win the fight, but how they will win. Different methods of victory are usually grouped as follows:
So because there are more possible outcomes in this market, the odds are higher than just the outright win market.
The Round Betting market offers the opportunity to get the highest odds. Here you can bet on which fighter will win, and which round he/she will win in.
Options to bet on a fighter to win on points, or to bet on the draw, are both also included in this market. In a 12 round bout, that gives 27 different possible outcomes. Therefore, the odds on each one are naturally going to be much higher. Think of it as the equivalent of the correct score market in football betting.
So the round betting market offers the biggest potential wins when betting on boxing. But of course, it’s harder to predict the outcome. You do have the option to split your stake to cover more than one outcome though. So if you felt that a fighter would win within the first 3 rounds, you could split your stake to back him to win in round 1, round 2 and round 3. The odds would mean you’d get a good profit if any of those outcomes happened.
This is a simple market in which you decide whether the fight will last all 12 rounds or not. Therefore there are only two outcomes to bet on, Yes or No.
It’s possible to get a decent success rate when betting on this market. Check the stats and the history of each boxer and ask yourself the following:
The answers to these key questions should give you a good idea of whether the fight is likely to go the distance or not. There can still be surprises, but you’ll certainly win more bets than you lose.
This market allows you to bet on the total number of rounds the fight will last for. The advantage here is that you do not need to specify who will win, just how long it will last.
For example, let’s consider a market of Over/Under 3.5 Rounds. There are only two options to bet on, either Over 3.5 Rounds or Under 3.5 Rounds. Therefore, you would approach the market as follows:
You will find that similar markets are available for Over/under 4.5, Over/Under 5.5, Over/Under 6.5 etc.
As any professional punter will tell you, the key to making a profit is not knowing who will win every time. Because obviously, that is not possible. The real trick is making sure that when you do win, you get the best possible odds on your bet.
We studied the odds for outright bets on every professional boxing match over a period of three months. We wanted to find the best bookies for boxing odds over a prolonged period of time.
As you would expect, Betfair and Bet365 are better than most of the competition. But the results showed that Betfred have the highest odds overall and came out well in some of the other markets like round betting.
Betfred were consistently best or equal best odds on nearly every outright market we recorded. They blew some of the other online bookies away in terms of the value they offered on boxing, and their user ratings are good too. So if you don’t have an account with them yet, we would definitely recommend joining.
| Best Bookies For Boxing | ||
|---|---|---|
 | Betfred | Visit |
 | Bet365 | Visit |
 | Betfair | Visit |
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