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Crawford to win on points

Canelo Alvarez vs Terence Crawford

9/4

Canelo Alvarez vs Terence Crawford Fight Preview

Saul ‘Canelo’ Alvarez (63-2-2, 39 KOs) defends his undisputed super-middleweight championship to two-weight undisputed champ Terence Crawford (41-0, 31 KOs) on Saturday, September 13 at the Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas.

The pound-for-pound superstars will clash over 12-rounds, live on Netflix, which will see them make their ringwalks at approximately 11pm in the States, and around 5am on Sunday morning for UK fight fans.

As is often the case in boxing, this fight is not straightforward, however the opponents about to lock horns share many similarities.

Crawford was the first male boxer to ever become an undisputed champion over two weight divisions in a four-belt era, and Canelo is the first and only undisputed super-middleweight champion in a four-belt era.

Both in their mid-thirties, they have each been world champions for well over a decade and conquered world titles in four different weight classes. Their names have occupied the pound-for-pound top 10 rankings for many years and they will be voted straight into the Hall of Fame in the first ballot after retirement.

But the difference and key factor in this fight is the weight difference. Canelo rules the super-middleweight division, and Crawford is coming up two weight classes to challenge the undisputed king for his crown.

The 35-year-old Mexican, trained by Eddy Reynoso, has won world 11 world title contests at super-middleweight, but Bud has only ever fought as high as super-welterweight before; in his last fight in August 2024, winning the WBA super-welterweight title from Israil Madrimov (UD 12).

In order to challenge the king, he is having to come up two weight divisions, and that extra stone he will be carrying in the fight will be something he has never experienced before and could affect his performance on the night.

There are so many questions – will his power carry up? Will the extra weight drain his strength and stamina? Will he be able to take Canelo’s power at super-middleweight?

Trained by Brian ‘BoMac’ MacIntrye, Crawford is a complete fighter, with high intelligence, exceptional ringcraft, power in both fists, the ability to switch-hit, set traps, and find and exploit awkward angles. He is very cerebral and downloads his opponents’ data early to find ways to break them down over time, which is why a lot of his stoppages occur from round nine onwards.

Canelo is an excellent counter puncher, who you would expect to target the body of Crawford to slow him down and sap his strength. As the fight wears on, his intensity and workrate will increase until it’s turned up to full power. Having shared 36 rounds with Gennady Golovkin, he has proven to possess one of the strongest chins in modern boxing.

With that said, it’s very highly likely this contest is going to go long, and it’s potentially the championship rounds where this ‘Fight of the Century’ could be decided.

My Prediction

Crawford is such a complete fighter that his intelligence and ringcraft should see him take an early lead, however that may not happen instantly as Canelo will be the more comfortable and experienced at the weight in the opening rounds.

Crawford may take a few rounds to get into his groove, but he will be very technical and careful in those first few rounds to not give much away. As the fight wears on, he may begin to win a lot of the rounds, but Canelo will be imposing throughout, and that will intensify with each passing round.

Canelo has struggled with clever fighters who are good movers before – Floyd Mayweather and Dmitry Bivol. Each of those were masters at range with good feet and high IQ.

They often say that ‘a good big’un beats a good little’un’, but I’m going to back who I think is the better fighter – Terence Crawford.

The extra weight could affect Bud in the later rounds, but even if he becomes exhausted and pushed to the limit, I still believe his brain and expert ringcraft can get him through the trenches to hear the final bell sound.

Prediction: Crawford to win on points 

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Free Boxing Betting Tips

Tim Rickson is the WhichBookie boxing analyst who joined the team midway through 2022 and will be providing boxing betting tips throughout the year for all of the big fights.

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Are Past Tips Archived?

Yes. All tips remain live here on WhichBookie. You can view all past boxing tips here on this page.

Which Bookie Should I Place The Tips With?

If you’d like to back any of the selections, we recommend a bookmaker to do so with. These are usually the bookies offering the best odds on the selection at the time of posting the tip but it may be worth checking other bookies in case the odds have changed. There may also be betting offers associated with the tip that are only available with specific bookmakers that are worth taking into consideration.

What Stakes Should I Use?

We never recommend an actual stake to use for each bet as this will vary between people depending on the size of their betting bank. Never bet more than you can afford to lose and always stick to your staking plan.

How Regularly Are Boxing Tips Published?

WhichBookie boxing analyst Tim Rickson will publish tips whenever he finds value in a bet. If there is a big fight coming up, it’s likely that he will cover it but generally, they’ll be posted whenever a good bet comes about.

Can You Watch Boxing Online?

Many of the big boxing matches are only available via Pay Per View. However, you may be able to find streams of some of the less-popular fights via the Bet365 Live Streaming service. Bet365 provides over 100,000 live streams of sporting events every year and is regarded as one of the best services for streaming sports online without charge.

How To Bet On Boxing

There are several options when it comes to betting on boxing, and the more you know, the better your chances of success. We will now go into more detail about some of the different betting markets that you will find, and discuss a few potential strategies you could use.

Outright / To Win Fight

As with most sports, the outright market is probably the simplest, because you’re just betting on who will win the fight. There are no other criteria to consider, other than the fact that with many of the best bookies for boxing, you can also bet on the draw. However, draws in boxing are very rare and not many people tend to back this outcome.

Bear in mind that in many fights, one boxer tends to be a heavy favourite and it’s usually quite easy to pick the winner. There don’t tend to be that many shock results. Therefore, the odds on the favourite are often very low, even if you use the bookie with the best odds as described earlier in the article.

If you’re happy betting at short odds, you can certainly get a good success rate simply by backing short price favourites in boxing. But many people prefer to look for bigger wins. So you may sometimes need to look at some of the other markets to get a better return on your bet.

Fight Outcome / Method of Victory

This market lets you choose not only who will win the fight, but how they will win. Different methods of victory are usually grouped as follows:

• By KO (knockout), TKO (tecnhical knockout) or DQ (opponent disqualified).
• By Decision (on points) or Technical Decision.

So because there are more possible outcomes in this market, the odds are higher than just the outright win market.

Round Betting

The Round Betting market offers the opportunity to get the highest odds. Here you can bet on which fighter will win, and which round he/she will win in.

Options to bet on a fighter to win on points, or to bet on the draw, are both also included in this market. In a 12 round bout, that gives 27 different possible outcomes. Therefore, the odds on each one are naturally going to be much higher. Think of it as the equivalent of the correct score market in football betting.

So the round betting market offers the biggest potential wins when betting on boxing. But of course, it’s harder to predict the outcome. You do have the option to split your stake to cover more than one outcome though. So if you felt that a fighter would win within the first 3 rounds, you could split your stake to back him to win in round 1, round 2 and round 3. The odds would mean you’d get a good profit if any of those outcomes happened.

To Go The Distance

This is a simple market in which you decide whether the fight will last all 12 rounds or not. Therefore there are only two outcomes to bet on, Yes or No.

It’s possible to get a decent success rate when betting on this market. Check the stats and the history of each boxer and ask yourself the following:

• Are the fighters evenly matched?
• Do they have a reputation for durability and rarely having been stopped in the past?
• If there is a favourite, is he/she an aggressive boxer or does he/she prefer to wear their opponent down?
• How many of their previous fights have gone the distance?

The answers to these key questions should give you a good idea of whether the fight is likely to go the distance or not. There can still be surprises, but you’ll certainly win more bets than you lose.

Total Rounds Over/Under

This market allows you to bet on the total number of rounds the fight will last for. The advantage here is that you do not need to specify who will win, just how long it will last.

For example, let’s consider a market of Over/Under 3.5 Rounds. There are only two options to bet on, either Over 3.5 Rounds or Under 3.5 Rounds. Therefore, you would approach the market as follows:

• If you think the fight will last for 3 rounds or less, you would bet on Under.
• If you think it will last for 4 rounds or more, you would be on Over.

You will find that similar markets are available for Over/under 4.5, Over/Under 5.5, Over/Under 6.5 etc.

Where To Get The Best Odds On Boxing

As any professional punter will tell you, the key to making a profit is not knowing who will win every time. Because obviously, that is not possible. The real trick is making sure that when you do win, you get the best possible odds on your bet.

We studied the odds for outright bets on every professional boxing match over a period of three months. We wanted to find the best bookies for boxing odds over a prolonged period of time.

As you would expect, Betfair and Bet365 are better than most of the competition. But the results showed that Betfred have the highest odds overall and came out well in some of the other markets like round betting.

Betfred were consistently best or equal best odds on nearly every outright market we recorded. They blew some of the other online bookies away in terms of the value they offered on boxing, and their user ratings are good too. So if you don’t have an account with them yet, we would definitely recommend joining.

Best Bookies For Boxing
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