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Another busy week on the PGA Tour as we head to McKinney, Texas for the CJ Cup Byron Nelson at TPC Craig Ranch, a venue that has built a reputation for low scoring, birdie runs and very little margin for error if you fall behind.
Our golf tipster has three each way selections this week ranging from 20/1 out to 45/1 as we try to take advantage of what is usually one of the more attackable setups on the schedule.
This event has a long and rich history, originally dating back to the 1940s when it was known as the Dallas Open. Over the decades it has been won by some of the biggest names in the game including Ben Hogan, Sam Snead, Jack Nicklaus, Tom Watson, Fred Couples and Payne Stewart, which shows just how strong a field this once attracted.
More recently it has still produced elite winners, with the likes of Adam Scott, Jason Day, Sergio Garcia and most recently Scottie Scheffler all getting it done, although the move around different venues over the years has slightly changed its identity. Since settling at TPC Craig Ranch, it has become a pure scoring test where anything around 25 under par is usually right in the mix.
TPC Craig Ranch is a par 71 measuring around 7,400 yards, designed by Tom Weiskopf and first opened in 2004. It is a fairly modern, open layout with zoysia fairways and bentgrass greens, and there is very little rough to speak of, meaning players are rarely punished off the tee.
Instead, this is all about opportunity creation. Water comes into play regularly with Rowlett Creek weaving through the course, but for the most part players are allowed to be aggressive and take on pins. It is not unusual to see stretches of holes where players simply trade birdies for several holes in a row.
The scoring history here backs that up. We have seen winning totals reach the low 30 under par, and rounds of 60 or even better are very much in play when conditions are calm. Scottie Scheffler blew the field away last year with a record breaking total, while previous editions have also seen multiple 60s and low 62s across the week.
Driving numbers have not been a strong separator here historically, with neither pure length nor accuracy proving decisive. Instead, the key trend has been strong greens in regulation combined with excellent putting on these fairly smooth but not overly fast bentgrass surfaces.
Approach play is still important, but it is more about volume than precision under pressure. Players who consistently give themselves birdie chances tend to rise up the board, and once someone gets hot with the putter they can quickly move into contention.
Scrambling does still have its place, but generally the winners here are those who are already putting themselves in position far more often than they are having to dig themselves out of trouble. When it does come down to short game, it tends to be about saving the occasional par rather than grinding out full recovery rounds.
There are also a few interesting course correlation angles. Similar low scoring, resort style setups have proven useful, particularly in Mexico at El Cardonal, where birdie fests tend to produce similar profiles of winner. That type of form often transfers well here, especially for players who are comfortable going low rather than grinding out tougher tests.
Overseas players have also historically done well in this event, particularly Australians and Koreans who tend to cope well with Texas conditions. Wind can still play a factor at times, but more often than not this is about staying aggressive and taking advantage when the scoring windows open.
From a betting perspective, this has also been a strong tournament for outsiders. Many recent winners have gone off at big prices, and even in strong fields there is often a wide group of players still in contention heading into the weekend. It is not uncommon to see someone emerge from several shots back if they catch fire across the final 36 holes.
All things considered, this looks set to be another birdie-heavy week where patience matters, but aggression wins out. Players arriving in form, comfortable on low scoring tracks and able to stack birdies in bunches should be the ones best suited.
We head into the week with three each way selections ranging from 20/1 to 45/1, all looking to take advantage of what is usually a very open and volatile leaderboard at TPC Craig Ranch.
For some advice on where to place your bets, we recommend taking a look at our best golf betting sites page.
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