Arnold Palmer Invitational Tips

Rory McIlroy heads the market for this week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational Tournament at the Bay Hill Club at best odds of 8/1 with a range of bookies but it is hard to get excited at those odds even in a slightly depleted field with Dustin Johnson and Jon Rahm leading the list of those not playing this week. McIlroy played well to finish sixth in last week’s Workday Championship having missed the cut a week earlier and is surely looking to fine-tune his preparation before the upcoming Players Championship.

Tyrell Hatton represents far better value at double the odds of McIlroy this week. Hatton is ranked at No.6 in the world rankings compared with No.8 now for McIlroy and he actually won this tournament last year. On top of that Hatton has already won this year and finished a very respectable six under par at the Concession Club last week despite having a torrid time around the greens. Hatton is a very solid pick at 16/1 for 8 places each way at William Hill or 14/1 and 10 places each way at Boylesports.  

European players have a great record at Bay Hill and Francesco Molinari won here in 2019. The Italian has made a good start to 2021 with three Top 10 finishes and he looks primed for another big week in Florida. The best odds of 30/1 for Molinari reflect the fact that the field this week is nowhere near as strong as others we have seen this year and that Molinari is once again approaching his best form. Molinari at 30/1 each way with William Hill is our 2nd selection this week. If any extra reassurance is needed as to the value of Molinari here, he can be layed on the Betfair Exchange in the each way 10 places market at odds of only 24/1 

Our final selection this week is also a European with great course experience and Matt Fitzpatrick at 20/1 for 10 places with Boylesports is too big to ignore.  Fitzpatrick is ultra-consistent now ranked No.16 in the world rankings and still improving. He has finished 11th and 5th in the last two US tournaments but more to the point he has amazing form at Bay Hill finishing 2nd in 2019 and top 10 last year. 

Bay Hill plays very tough particularly when the wind blows and the weather forecast does suggest that the weekend conditions could get quite blowy with winds up to 25mph expected. Driving the golf ball a long distance is not the key element in the Arnold Palmer Invitational and accurate iron play and putting will most likely determine the winner. Birdies are hard to come by here and the Par Fives will be crucial in that respect. It is a course where experience is a crucial factor and hopefully a good week for our European selections.