Day six at WTA Beijing brings us the fourth round, and the quality on offer is seriously impressive. Several of the biggest names left in the draw are stepping out onto court in the Chinese capital, so let’s get into who I think comes through and why.
Ostapenko holds a 1-0 lead in the head to head, though that sole meeting came back in 2019. Still, when you watch how Ostapenko plays, historical records almost feel secondary. She is built to take the racket head to the ball from the first point, and if that’s clicking, opponents rarely get comfortable. Her second round win over Paula Badosa was a proper white knuckle affair, coming back from 5-3 down in both sets before closing out 7-6 (5) 7-5. That kind of result tells you everything about Ostapenko: completely capable of putting herself in trouble, but equally capable of hitting her way back out of it.
Mertens is no soft touch here though. The Belgian dispatched Katie Volynets in a match that lurched all over the place, winning the first set 6-0 before nearly letting a 4-1 lead in the second slip away entirely, eventually taking the decider 7-5. Neither woman produced their cleanest tennis last time out, which means this really comes down to who sorts themselves out first.
Ostapenko going route one and bombing the lines should trouble Mertens, who prefers to build rallies and wait for opponents to blink. If the unforced errors are kept to a reasonable level, the Latvian’s ball striking should be too powerful for the Belgian to handle consistently. Ostapenko to edge a three set battle.
Prediction: Ostapenko in 3
Li actually leads this head to head 1-0, having beaten Bencic in straight sets at Flushing Meadows last year, so she comes in with a psychological edge worth noting. The American has looked sharp in Beijing too, reeling off eight consecutive games from 4-2 down against Ashlyn Krueger and saving eight of nine break points along the way. She is the kind of player who makes life uncomfortable for higher ranked opponents, and she genuinely enjoys that underdog role.
Bencic’s tournament started with a 6-1 7-6 win over Anastasia Zakharova, which was solid enough if not entirely convincing. She cruised the first set then had to dig in during a tighter second, eventually seeing it out in a tiebreak. It was also her first competitive match since a first round exit at the US Open, so rust was always going to be a factor. The good news is she handled it and came through.
This should be closer than the rankings suggest. Li is a genuine threat on hard courts and her consistency from the baseline can neutralise Bencic’s more aggressive instincts. That said, when Bencic is timing the ball well and pressing forward, she is a level above Li on her best day. I’ll take Bencic to come through, but not without being pushed hard first.
Prediction: Bencic in 3
Svitolina leads this head to head 3-2 overall, though on outdoor hard courts it is level at 1-1, and every completed meeting between them has gone the distance. Don’t expect that pattern to change here. These two always seem to find a way to drag each other into a long match.
Sakkari is looking seriously good right now. She swept past Storm Hunter 6-2 6-2, winning eight straight games and looking like a player who has found her rhythm again after a frustrating run of results. Her forehand has real venom when she is in this kind of form and her serve is holding up nicely. She will fancy herself against anyone left in this draw.
Svitolina’s path to the last 16 was considerably bumpier. She dropped the opening set 6-1 to Katerina Siniakova before turning it around to win 1-6 6-4 6-2 in just over two hours. That kind of slow start is a real concern against someone in Sakkari’s current mood. If Svitolina gives away the first set cheaply again, she might not have enough in the tank to fight back a second time. That said, her defensive resilience and mental toughness are elite, and she has the head to head in her favour. I think she finds a way, but it won’t be pretty.
Prediction: Svitolina in 3
This is the first meeting between the pair, and the contrast in experience and expectation could not be more stark. Gauff came through a genuinely scrappy opener against Camila Osorio, 7-6 (4) 4-6 6-2, after being broken four times and sending down five double faults. It was far from the performance of a player who reached a US Open semi-final, but the third set showed she still has the gears to shift into when she needs them. Her first tournament since that defeat, she will want to hit her stride quickly.
Sun Xinran is only 16 years old and has absolutely nothing to lose. She knocked out Cristina Bucsa 6-4 7-5, recovering from a break down in the second set, and became the first player born in 2010 to reach the third round of a WTA 1000 event. That is a remarkable achievement and she clearly has a serious game. The momentum and fearlessness of youth are real weapons.
Even so, Gauff has too much. The American’s serve should be sharper this time around, and once she settles into her patterns she is genuinely hard to live with. Sun will have her moments and deserves enormous credit for getting this far, but Gauff has the experience, the motivation and the firepower to wrap this up inside two sets.
Prediction: Gauff in 2
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