The Beijing semifinals are locked in and the draw has thrown up two genuinely compelling matches. Both contests have proper storylines behind them, and the later stages of this tournament have delivered the kind of quality you hope for when the big names make it through. Here is how I see both semifinal ties playing out.
De Minaur has been in superb touch all week and showed real character to turn around his quarterfinal against Andrey Rublev after dropping the opening set. Rublev was exceptional early on but de Minaur simply refused to go away, lifted his level from the second set onwards and ended up controlling the match comfortably. The Australian reaches his second straight Beijing semifinal and his fourth of the season overall, which tells you everything about where his game is right now. He came close to the final here last year before falling to Sinner in a tight three setter, so he will be determined to go one better this time.
Hurkacz is not short of confidence himself. He has beaten the in form Karen Khachanov to reach back to back Beijing semis and his serve will always give him a platform in any match. That said, the numbers do not lie when it comes to this head to head. De Minaur leads 3 to 1 overall and Hurkacz has never managed to beat him on a hard court. On a slower hard court surface like this one, that problem only gets worse for the Pole. De Minaur thrives on exactly these conditions, pushing his opponents back with relentless returning and wearing them down physically. I expect him to crank up the pressure on Hurkacz’s serve and get the breaks he needs over the course of a three setter.
Djokovic produced arguably his best performance in some time to knock out top seed Alexander Zverev in the quarterfinals, extending his astonishing Beijing record to 32 wins from 32 matches at this tournament. The match was high quality from both ends but Djokovic absorbed losing the first set and gradually made life impossible for Zverev on return, picking the right moments to break and never letting the German settle. The main question mark going into that match was Djokovic’s fitness and he answered it emphatically. He looked sharp and physically comfortable throughout.
Medvedev has been a machine this week. He has won seven matches in a row, beaten Francisco Cerundolo without dropping a set, and is playing some of his cleanest tennis of the entire season. When Medvedev is locked in on a hard court he is one of the most suffocating opponents on tour, and this will be their first meeting since 2023 which adds an extra layer of intrigue. The head to head stands at 10 wins to 5 in Djokovic’s favour though, and you simply cannot ignore the fact that this court belongs to Novak in a way that it belongs to nobody else on tour. His ability to keep raising his level as a match progresses is the defining quality that tips this one his way.
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