Leeds United
Tottenham HotspurLeeds have had the air of a team running on fumes lately. After a sharp start to the season that had Elland Road genuinely buzzing, the Whites have gone five games without a win and that early promise feels like a distant memory. Daniel Farke is keeping calm in public, talking about the 40 point target and trusting his group, but results against Crystal Palace, Manchester United and Sunderland all ending in draws tells you something about where this side is right now. Meanwhile Tottenham are heading up the M1 with a full head of steam, three straight wins having blown away the fog of a miserable six game winless run to open their campaign.
Roberto De Zerbi has found something in recent weeks. Back to back 2-0 wins over Chelsea and Palace, sandwiched around a 3-1 thumping of Coventry, have lifted Spurs into ninth and they are now genuinely sniffing around the top five. The Italian wants more from his forwards, calling out a lack of cutting edge after Palace was reduced to 10 men and Spurs still only scored twice. That hunger to improve is exactly the kind of attitude that makes a team dangerous. Leeds will need to be at their very best to contain this Spurs side this weekend.
This Premier League fixture takes place at Elland Road, one of English football’s most iconic grounds and a place where Leeds have made life very difficult for visiting sides this season. Spurs make the trip north knowing a win would put real daylight between them and the lower reaches of the table while keeping them in touch with the European places above.
Farke has a couple of concerns heading into this one, though there is at least some cautious optimism around his main striker. Spurs are without several names but De Zerbi has enough quality in reserve to cover.
Farke looks set to stick largely with what he knows. James Trafford keeps his place in goal despite the costly error at Bournemouth, and the back three of James Justin, Nico Elvedi and Tarik Muharemovic should continue. The big question is Calvert-Lewin. He has scored seven goals in his last seven home games and is irreplaceable in terms of that threat, so Farke will give him every chance to prove his fitness.
Leeds United: Trafford; Justin, Elvedi, Muharemovic; Bogle, Ampadu, Tanaka, Gudmundsson; Wilson, James; Calvert-Lewin
De Zerbi is expected to make a couple of tweaks, with Pedro Porro pushing to come back in at right back ahead of Archie Gray. James Maddison could slot into the attacking midfield role, with the battle between Omar Marmoush and Dominic Solanke for the centre forward spot one to watch. Solanke feels the likelier pick given the physical demands of this fixture.
Tottenham Hotspur: Kinsky; Porro, Van Hecke, Van de Ven, Robertson; Fernandes, Tonali; Kudus, Maddison, Tel; Solanke
Leeds started the season like a team that had something to prove, picking up eight points from their opening four games with two wins and two draws. That version of this side looked organised, energetic and genuinely hard to break down. What has followed is far less convincing. Five games without a win, defeats to Arsenal and Bournemouth, and three draws against sides who are themselves struggling near the bottom of the table. That is not the form of a team pushing upwards, that is a team fighting to stay above water.
The bright spot for Farke is what this team can do at Elland Road specifically. Eight Premier League games unbeaten at home, four wins and four draws, puts Leeds among only a handful of clubs yet to taste defeat on their own patch this season. There is clearly a fortitude here, a togetherness that shows up when the fans are behind them. Getting the crowd on side early will be crucial because if Spurs find an early goal, the atmosphere could quickly turn.
Spurs look like a completely different side to the one that went six games without a Premier League win at the start of the season. Three victories on the spin, keeping consecutive clean sheets against Chelsea and Palace, suggest that De Zerbi has finally got his defensive shape sorted. They have not been blowing teams away but they have been efficient, controlled and professional. Away from home they are also unbeaten across their last three league outings, which makes them a genuinely tricky proposition for Leeds to deal with.
The historical record between these two sides in the Premier League era does not make for comfortable reading if you are a Leeds supporter. Over their last 13 top flight meetings, Leeds have collected only five points against Spurs, losing 10 of those games. That is a pretty damning run of form against a single opponent. The away record is particularly brutal for the Whites, with Spurs winning each of their last three trips to Elland Road by an aggregate score of 10 goals to 2.
Even the defensive record makes grim reading. Leeds have not kept a clean sheet against Spurs since February 2000, a streak that now runs to 16 consecutive meetings. The most recent clash ended 1-1 at Spurs in May, with Mathys Tel opening the scoring before Calvert-Lewin converted a penalty to earn a share of the spoils. It was a decent result for Leeds on the road but the overall picture is very much in Tottenham’s favour.
The stats point clearly toward a cagey game. Leeds are hard to beat at home but are not scoring freely, Spurs are picking up wins without lighting the world on fire in front of goal, and the head to head history suggests this rivalry tends to produce competitive if not particularly open football. The smart money is on a tightly contested match where every goal matters enormously.
Both teams are likely to set up with structure and patience rather than chasing corners through sheer volume of attacking play. Spurs will probe without overcommitting and Leeds at home tend to be compact. Under 10 corners looks the sensible call in what should be a relatively controlled affair.
If Calvert-Lewin passes his fitness test, he is the standout pick. Seven goals in his last seven home league games is a remarkable return and he will be absolutely fired up to perform in front of the Elland Road faithful against a side that carries real threat. He thrives in those big occasion moments.
Leeds have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their last 16 meetings with Spurs, while Tottenham’s attack has the quality to find a way through most defences even when not at their sharpest. Leeds equally will carry a threat through Calvert-Lewin if fit. BTTS yes looks the right call here despite the low scoring nature of this Leeds side at home this season.
The numbers are quite clear on this one. Seven of Leeds’ nine Premier League matches this season have gone under 2.5 goals, and Spurs have been winning games by the odd goal rather than putting sides to the sword. Under 2.5 goals is the play and it carries real confidence behind it given the evidence of both sides this campaign.
This fixture carries a bit of edge. Leeds at home with something to prove, Spurs coming in full of confidence and wanting to maintain their momentum. Farke’s side will need to be physical in midfield to contain Maddison and Kudus, and Spurs will not shy away from that battle either. Over 3.5 cards feels achievable in what should be a competitive, feisty midfield battle.
A 1-1 draw has the feel of a result that suits the occasion perfectly. Leeds will not capitulate at home having protected that record so fiercely, Spurs have enough to find a goal, and history tells us both teams will get on the scoresheet. The spoils shared in a tight one, just as they were when these sides met in May.
| Market | Selection |
|---|---|
| Both Teams To Score | Yes |
| Total Goals | Under 2.5 |
| First Goalscorer | Dominic Calvert-Lewin |
A 1-1 scoreline satisfies all three legs, with Calvert-Lewin’s outstanding home form giving the first goalscorer leg genuine value in a match that has low scoring draw written all over it.
This is a game between a team that has found its groove and one that has lost its way somewhat, but the venue is a leveller. Leeds at Elland Road are a different animal to Leeds on their travels and that home fortress record will not be surrendered lightly. Farke’s side will be organised, determined and backed by a crowd desperate for a performance.
Spurs have the quality and the momentum to take something from this trip, but winning at Elland Road has never been straightforward. A 1-1 draw feels right. Tight, competitive, and ultimately fair on both sides.
Top Casinos
Top New Bookmakers
Top Offers
Top Rated Bookmakers
ADO Den Haag vs Sparta Rotterdam Prediction, Betting Tips & Preview
Featured OfferBetAhoyBet £10 Get a £10 Free BetClaim Free Bet →Code ALLABOARD10 – Place qualifying bet within…
Roma vs Sassuolo Prediction, Betting Tips & Preview
Featured OfferBetAhoyBet £10 Get a £10 Free BetClaim Free Bet →Code ALLABOARD10 – Place qualifying bet within…
Birmingham City vs Swansea City Prediction, Betting Tips & Preview
Featured OfferBetAhoyBet £10 Get a £10 Free BetClaim Free Bet →Code ALLABOARD10 – Place qualifying bet within…
Best Football Bookies
£5 FREE AT VERSUS!
No Deposit Needed
Get £5 completely free to use on a trade at VERSUS! No deposit. No card. Just enter your email address to get instant access to the offer.
