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Mansfield Town
Notts CountyThere are local derbies and then there is this. Mansfield versus Notts County carries that extra edge that only a proper Nottinghamshire rivalry can bring, two clubs separated by less than twenty miles and a whole lot of pride. One side is riding a wave of confidence, the other is trying to prove their recent upturn is genuine and not just a blip in what has been a difficult season. Throw in the stakes of a League One table that still has plenty of movement in it and you have got yourself a Saturday afternoon fixture that will grip supporters of both clubs from the first whistle to the last.
What makes this one especially compelling for the neutral is the contrast in trajectories. Mansfield have been rolling, putting goals past teams and looking genuinely dangerous going forward. Notts County had a torrid start to life in the third tier but have quietly started to claw their way back into contention. A win for County would breathe real life back into their season. A win for Mansfield would send a message that they are serious about pushing up into that top six conversation.
This Nottinghamshire derby takes place at the One Call Stadium, home of Mansfield Town, in League One. It is a ground that has seen some feisty local encounters over the years and with both sets of supporters packed in, the atmosphere should be absolutely crackling for what is a significant fixture in the context of both clubs’ seasons.
Mansfield come into this one with a couple of injury concerns picked up during the victory at Blackpool, which could force Nigel Clough into changes he would rather not have had to make ahead of a derby. That said, the squad looks to have cover in the right areas.
Notts County have no fresh injury concerns to report and Martin Paterson is expected to name the same starting eleven that held second placed Stockport to a draw last weekend. Continuity of selection will be important for a side still finding their feet in League One.
Clough will set Mansfield up in a shape that allows them to get Tyler Roberts on the ball in advanced areas while giving Smith the service he needs to be a threat. Oates should return after the Thompson and Abbott setbacks, with Hendry also expected to slot in.
Mansfield Town: Roberts; Hewitt, Oshilaja, Sweeney; Reed; Moriah-Welsh, Hendry, Russell, McLaughlin; Oates, Smith
Paterson will trust the group that performed well against Stockport. Robertson earned his starting spot with a goal last time out and will line up again in central midfield alongside Finneran. Kanu provides width and creativity while Grant leads the line.
Notts County: Belshaw; Ness, McDonald, Bedeau; Tsaroulla, Finneran, Robertson, Samuels-Smith; Smyth, Grant; Kanu
Mansfield are genuinely purring right now. Six league games without defeat is a run that tells you something real about a side, and the quality of the performances backs it up. The 4-1 win away at Blackpool was outstanding, a complete team display on the road at a ground that is never easy to visit. That came just days after a 3-0 dismantling of Wimbledon, meaning Mansfield have hit seven goals in the space of two matches. Smith, Oates and Roberts have all chipped in, and Clough has spoken about the sheer volume of chances his side are creating. This is not a side grinding results out on the back of defensive work, they are genuinely positive and attacking.
Notts County’s form picture is more complicated. Their start to League One life was pretty grim, one win from nine is the kind of return that has managers looking over their shoulders and fans growing restless. But there are signs that Paterson is starting to get his ideas across. Ending a four match losing streak with a 2-0 win over Sheffield Wednesday was significant, and then to follow that up by taking a point against a Stockport side sitting second in the table suggests the character in the dressing room is genuine. Robertson’s early goal against Stockport showed they can be a threat going forward too.
The momentum gap between these two sides is obvious. Mansfield look like a team that knows exactly what it is doing. Notts County look like a team finding its feet. That said, derby football has a way of making form guides feel irrelevant once the referee blows his whistle.
The historical record here swings very heavily in Mansfield’s favour for this fixture. They have lost just once in their last ten meetings with Notts County across all competitions, which is a remarkable statistic when you consider how fiercely contested these local derbies tend to be. That kind of dominance over a long stretch of encounters is not luck, it speaks to a pattern of Mansfield being the more settled and organised side when these two clubs collide.
Notts County will be desperate to close that gap and a result at the One Call Stadium would be a significant statement, but the weight of recent history sits firmly with the home side heading into this one.
Mansfield are the clear form team here and the home advantage in a derby environment should work in their favour. Smith is flying and the attack looks genuinely threatening. Notts County have shown some fight in recent weeks but walking into the One Call Stadium on derby day, against a side this hot, is a completely different proposition. Most of the value in this fixture points toward the home side, and quite a few of the market angles support that view.
Mansfield have been putting teams to the sword lately and at home in a derby they will be fired up from the off. Notts County have enough about them to grab a goal, as they showed against Stockport, but the hosts should have too much quality over the course of ninety minutes. Mansfield Town 2-1 Notts County looks the right call.
Mansfield are an attack minded side who commit numbers forward and create chances in volume, Clough has spoken about that himself. Notts County will need to push on if they go behind, which should open the game up further as it progresses. Over 9.5 corners looks like a solid shout in a game where both sides will be getting forward with intent.
Michael Smith is the standout pick here without much debate. Seven goal contributions in five league games tells you everything about the kind of form he is carrying into this fixture. He leads the line for a side that creates chances in abundance, and in a home derby with a crowd behind him, he has every ingredient to get on the scoresheet early. Back Smith to open the scoring.
Nottinghamshire derbies rarely stay neat and tidy. There is genuine history between these two clubs and the intensity that comes with a local rivalry tends to push the card count up. Players will be competing hard in every fifty-fifty, and the emotion of the occasion brings extra edge to challenges that might go unpunished in a more routine fixture. Over 3.5 cards looks well within reach here.
Mansfield have been scoring freely and Notts County have shown they can find the net too, with Robertson on the goal trail in midfield and Grant leading the line with purpose. A tight, cagey nil nil this is not. Over 2.5 goals fits the profile of this game perfectly given the attacking intent on both sides and the heightened emotion of a derby.
Notts County scored against Stockport and won against Sheffield Wednesday, so they clearly have an attacking threat of their own. Mansfield’s backline will be tested. Given the attacking quality on show from both sides and the nature of a derby where no team sits back and absorbs pressure, both teams to score looks like a yes. County will get their goal, but so will Mansfield, and probably more than once.
| Market | Selection |
|---|---|
| First Goalscorer | Michael Smith |
| Both Teams To Score | Yes |
| Over 2.5 Goals | Over 2.5 |
Smith’s red hot form makes him the obvious first scorer pick, and if Notts County find the net as expected in a feisty derby, the goals total and BTTS legs take care of themselves nicely.
Everything points toward a Mansfield win here. They are the team in form, they have home advantage, they have a striker playing some of the best football of his career, and history says they get the better of County more often than not in this fixture. Notts County have improved and will make this a proper contest but the gap in form and confidence between these two sides is real.
Expect Mansfield to edge this one with a 2-1 victory in what should be a genuinely entertaining and fiercely contested Nottinghamshire derby. Smith to be at the centre of things and County to grab a consolation that keeps the scoreline interesting without changing the outcome.
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