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RB Leipzig
AugsburgLeipzig have not conceded a single Bundesliga goal at Red Bull Arena this season. Not one. That is the kind of defensive record that makes you sit up and take notice, and when you combine it with a frontline that has plundered 22 league goals already, only Bayern Munich have scored more, you start to understand why this is such a daunting assignment for anyone arriving in Saxony. Augsburg are that anyone this weekend, and they come into this fixture winless in their last six Bundesliga outings. The gap between these two sides right now is not just a few places on the table. It feels like a chasm.
Martin Demichelis is under real pressure despite Leipzig sitting fourth with 15 points. The midweek Champions League defeat to Manchester City, a 3-2 thriller that ended a three-game winning run, also ended that pristine home clean sheet record for the first time this season in all competitions. Bundesliga domestically though, the fortress remains intact. Win here and Leipzig could pull level with Dortmund and Bayern at the top. Lose, and the knives will be out for Demichelis again. The stakes feel very real for the home side too.
This Bundesliga fixture takes place at Red Bull Arena, Leipzig’s imposing home ground in Saxony. Leipzig come into it off the back of European action midweek, while Augsburg have had a full week to prepare. The gap in quality and momentum between these sides heading into this one is hard to ignore.
Leipzig have a couple of injury concerns to manage, while Augsburg are genuinely short in some key areas, particularly at the back.
Augsburg losing three centre backs for the same game is a real headache for Manuel Baum. The defensive options he has left are not exactly what you would choose when facing one of the sharpest attacks in the division.
Demichelis looks set to line up with Vandevoordt in goal behind a back four of Henrichs, Orban, Lukeba and Raum. Neil El Aynaoui and Rocco Reitz should anchor the midfield in a double pivot, with the front line built around Christopher Nkunku. If Nusa is passed fit he takes the left wing, otherwise Gomis slots in. Romulo and Gomis or Nusa flank Nkunku with the Brazilian striker leading the line.
Augsburg are likely to set up in a back three out of necessity given their centre back crisis. Jeffrey Gouweleeuw, Yannik Keitel and Chrislain Matsima could form that three, with Robin Fellhauer and Hennes Behrens pushing forward as wing backs. Hamza Massengo and Niklas Dorsch or Ruben Vargas in midfield, with Steve Kade and Arne Maier supporting Ermedin Demirovic or Michael Gregoritsch up top.
Leipzig’s domestic form has been genuinely impressive. Three consecutive Bundesliga wins before the Manchester City defeat had them looking like a team hitting their stride, and the City result, though a loss, came in Europe against genuinely elite opposition. In the Bundesliga specifically they have been a different beast entirely at home, rock solid defensively and clinical going forward with that 22-goal haul placing them second only to Bayern in the scoring charts.
Augsburg’s season is essentially a tale of two halves that have come in very quick succession. They won their first two league games and looked like a side with real intent. Since that 4-1 hammering of Eintracht Frankfurt on September 6 though, they have not won a single Bundesliga match. Three losses and three draws have followed, leaving them 10th on nine points and uncomfortably close to the relegation zone. The points tally looks better than it feels given that eight clubs below them have the same number of points or just one fewer.
The one crumb of comfort for Augsburg is that three of their four wins in all competitions this season have come away from home. That is worth flagging, though it has to be weighed against the quality of the opposition they face here compared to those earlier away wins.
Leipzig have historically been the stronger side in this matchup and that dominance has only grown as the gap between the clubs has widened in recent seasons. Augsburg have rarely been able to contain Leipzig’s forward movement when these sides have met, and the Red Bull Arena in particular has been a difficult place for them to come and get anything from. Leipzig’s pace and pressing game tends to cause exactly the kind of problems that Augsburg’s current squad is least equipped to handle.
Recent meetings have generally gone the way of the home side when Leipzig have had home advantage, and there is little in the current form or squad situation of either team to suggest this one will buck that trend.
This fixture shapes up as one of the more one-sided matchups in this round of Bundesliga games. Leipzig at home, unbeaten on their own patch in the league, full of goals and facing a defensively depleted Augsburg side that cannot buy a win. The angles here point pretty firmly in one direction, and the value looks to be in backing Leipzig to win comfortably while also looking at goals markets given how free-scoring the hosts have been.
Leipzig generate a huge number of attacking actions at Red Bull Arena and they tend to force corners through their pressing and wide play. Against a side defending with a makeshift back three, expect Leipzig to dominate territory and rack up set piece opportunities. Over 10 corners in this game looks well worth considering.
Christopher Nkunku is the standout pick here. He is the creative heartbeat of this Leipzig side and consistently gets into goalscoring positions. With Augsburg’s defensive options stretched and their back line essentially cobbled together from necessity, Nkunku has the quality and the movement to get in early and punish them.
Augsburg are going to have to work extremely hard and put their bodies on the line to stay in this game. A makeshift defence under sustained pressure from one of the division’s most dynamic attacks is a recipe for frustration and fouls. At least three bookings across the match feels likely, with one or more coming from an Augsburg defender trying to hold the line.
The source material points to 3-0 and it is hard to argue. Leipzig are clinical, their home defensive record is extraordinary in the Bundesliga, and Augsburg simply do not look like a side capable of threatening them right now. A 3-0 Leipzig win is the call.
Leipzig’s 22-goal tally in the Bundesliga this season tells you everything you need to know about their attacking output, and they are facing opponents who have conceded freely during their current miserable run. Over 2.5 goals looks nailed on. You could even make a case for over 3.5 if the game opens up quickly.
No. Leipzig have not conceded a Bundesliga goal at home all season, and Augsburg’s attacking output during their six-game winless run has not been convincing. The hosts keeping a clean sheet here feels very achievable. BTTS No is the selection.
| Market | Selection |
|---|---|
| Match Result | RB Leipzig to Win |
| Both Teams To Score | No |
| Over 2.5 Goals | Yes |
Leipzig winning with a clean sheet and at least three goals between them fits perfectly with their Bundesliga home record this season and the sorry state Augsburg’s depleted defence is in.
Everything points to a Leipzig victory here. The home side are unbeaten in the Bundesliga at Red Bull Arena, they are second only to Bayern for goals scored, and they are facing a side that has not won in six league games and has turned up missing three first choice centre backs. Demichelis needs a response after the City defeat and his players have the quality to deliver one.
Augsburg will give it a go, they have enough pride and enough away form in all competitions to suggest they will not simply roll over, but the class gap is significant and the defensive problems they are carrying make it very hard to see them keeping Leipzig quiet. RB Leipzig 3-0 Augsburg is the prediction, and it feels like one of the more confident calls of the weekend.
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