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Borussia Dortmund
Eintracht FrankfurtBorussia Dortmund cannot afford to let this one slip. Sitting level on points with Bayern Munich at the top of the Bundesliga, BVB know that dropping more ground at Signal Iduna Park would hand their rivals the initiative in what is shaping up to be a genuine title tussle. Two draws on the bounce in the league have already let Bayern breathe easier, and Niko Kovac will be absolutely desperate to get back to winning ways in front of their own fans this weekend.
Eintracht Frankfurt arrive in a very different mood. The Eagles are hovering in mid table, uncomfortably close to the relegation playoff spot, and their defensive record this season has been alarming. Adi Hutter needs a performance, and ideally a result, but history suggests they are going to find this a very tough afternoon.
This Bundesliga fixture takes place at Signal Iduna Park, one of the most atmospheric grounds in world football when the home support is behind the team. With the title race as tight as it is, you can expect the Yellow Wall to be in full voice and the pressure on Frankfurt to defend well from the first whistle.
Dortmund are still missing Emre Can, who has been out for nine months and is not expected back until November at the earliest. Beyond that, Kovac has a largely fit squad to choose from and should be able to name a strong lineup.
Kovac looks set to go with a back three of Joane Gadou, Waldemar Anton and Nico Schlotterbeck, with Julian Ryerson and a left sided option providing width from deeper positions. In the middle, Bellingham and Nmecha should provide the platform, with Nwaneri and Maximilian Beier supporting Guirassy in the final third.
Frankfurt’s Adi Hutter will likely set up with a flat back four featuring Luca Brassier and Nnamdi Collins either side of Koch. Ritsu Doan and Fares Chaibi will look to provide creative spark from wide areas, while Jonathan Burkardt and Younes Ebnoutalib lead the line. Whether Hojlund is fit or not shapes the midfield significantly, and Hutter may be forced into a reshuffle if his man cannot go.
Borussia Dortmund: Kobel; Gadou, Anton, Schlotterbeck; Ryerson, Bellingham, Nmecha, Svensson; Nwaneri, Beier; Guirassy
Eintracht Frankfurt: Atubolu; Collins, Koch, Brassier, Kosugi; Doan, Aseko, Onyedika, Chaibi; Burkardt, Ebnoutalib
Dortmund are one of only two unbeaten sides in the Bundesliga this season, which tells you something about their overall quality. But the last couple of weeks have been a little flat in the league, and the goalless draw with Union Berlin on October 17 was particularly uninspiring. They managed just two shots on target and were barely a threat in the first half. That is not the Dortmund who were flying earlier in the campaign, and Kovac will know his side need to rediscover that cutting edge quickly.
The midweek Champions League win over Sabah FC helped snap a run without a victory, and there is always a lift that comes from a winning performance. At home this season, BVB have been largely impressive. Their only defeat at Signal Iduna Park came in the Supercup against Bayern back in August, and since then they have won three times and drawn once in their own backyard, scoring 10 goals and conceding four in those four fixtures. The signal is clear. Dortmund at home are a different proposition to Dortmund on the road.
Frankfurt’s form makes for uncomfortable reading for Hutter. Yes, they beat Koln 1-0 last time out, and they have won two of their last four. But conceding 16 goals in the Bundesliga already, including a 6-0 thumping at RB Leipzig, is genuinely alarming for a side with top half ambitions. Away from home they have actually shown some resilience, losing just once in four away trips before that Leipzig hammering, but Signal Iduna Park in front of a full crowd is a very different test to anything else they have faced on their travels.
The recent head to head record tells a pretty clear story. Frankfurt have lost two and drawn one of their last three meetings with Dortmund, and there is little in the recent history to suggest they carry any psychological advantage going into this one. The Eagles have struggled to impose themselves in these fixtures, and with their defensive vulnerabilities this season, there is every reason to think the pattern continues.
Dortmund have been clinical against Frankfurt when on home soil, and with the pressure of the title race adding extra motivation, you would back the hosts to be sharp and purposeful from the off rather than allowing Frankfurt any time to settle.
The value in this fixture points heavily toward Dortmund, and specifically toward goals flowing at the Signal Iduna Park end. Frankfurt’s defence has been a sieve all season and Dortmund, despite a couple of quiet outings, carry genuine threat when they click. The angle here is on Dortmund winning with goals in the game, rather than the clean sheet route given how patchy BVB’s defensive record has been recently.
Serhou Guirassy is the obvious pick and there is nothing wrong with going with the obvious when the reasoning is sound. He is the focal point of the Dortmund attack, gets into the right positions consistently, and has the physical presence to bully Frankfurt’s centre backs. With two creative players operating behind him in Nwaneri and Beier, Guirassy should get his opportunities early and often.
A 3-1 Dortmund win feels like the right call here. BVB have the firepower to put Frankfurt to the sword, but the visitors have shown enough attacking spark in recent weeks to nick one back. Guirassy and company clicking into gear at home, with Frankfurt’s shaky backline offering space in behind, feels like a recipe for a comfortable but not necessarily clean Dortmund victory.
Frankfurt are going to be under serious pressure for large parts of this match, and when teams are chasing the game or defending deep against a side as direct as Dortmund, the bookings tend to follow. Expect the visiting midfield to pick up a couple of yellows as they try to disrupt BVB’s rhythm. Over 3.5 cards in the match looks a reasonable shout given the stakes and the likely flow of the game.
Dortmund are going to spend a lot of time attacking and pressing Frankfurt back into their own half. When BVB are on top at home they generate corners in bunches, and with a midfield of Bellingham and Nmecha driving forward, the wide areas will be heavily exploited. Over 10 corners in the match looks very achievable, with Dortmund likely to account for the majority of them.
| Market | Selection |
|---|---|
| Match Result | Borussia Dortmund to Win |
| First Goalscorer | Serhou Guirassy |
| Total Corners | Over 10 Corners |
A Dortmund win, Guirassy on the scoresheet first, and the corner count going over 10 all point to the same game flow: BVB on the front foot from the start, dominating possession and territory against a Frankfurt side that will struggle to live with them.
Dortmund need to send a message in the title race and Signal Iduna Park is the perfect stage for it. Frankfurt have shown enough this season to suggest they will have moments, but their defensive fragility against a sharpened Dortmund attack makes it very hard to see anything other than a home win here. Kovac will have his side primed and motivated, and the crowd will do the rest.
Borussia Dortmund 3-1 Eintracht Frankfurt is the call. BVB get back to their best in front of their fans, Guirassy leads the charge, and Frankfurt’s leaky back four pays the price for another afternoon of poor defending on the road.