Sevilla
OsasunaCan Sevilla arrest a poor run of form on home turf against a newly galvanised Osasuna side, or will Jagoba Arrasate’s return to the dugout spark another upset? That is the question hanging over the Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan this week, and there is plenty to unpick before we commit any money to this one.
Sevilla have been a difficult team to read this season. Genuinely competitive against most sides, but absolutely rolled over when they have faced the elite. Osasuna, meanwhile, looked dead in the water before their manager came back and immediately got a response. That context makes this fixture far more interesting than the league positions alone suggest.
This La Liga fixture takes place at the Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan in Seville, one of the most atmospheric grounds in Spanish football. Sevilla are the home side looking to put a rough patch behind them, while Osasuna make the trip south hoping to build on what felt like a genuine turning point in their season.
Sevilla boss Luis Garcia Plaza has a few absences to manage heading into this one, though there is some positive news creeping back into his squad ahead of the week.
Osasuna are also dealing with a few fitness concerns of their own as Arrasate looks to name a settled side on the road.
For Sevilla, the big call is whether Kochorashvili slots straight back into midfield after his calf issue. Garcia Plaza would be tempted to restore him given they could do with some creative energy in central areas. Romero is fit again but more likely to be used as an impact substitute given the timing of his return. Ruben Vargas, who scored the winner against Osasuna last season, should keep his place in the attacking third.
Osasuna look likely to line up much as they did in Arrasate’s opening game back in charge. Ante Budimir leads the line and is the clear focal point of everything going forward. The manager would have little reason to tinker with a shape that delivered a clean sheet and three comfortable points in his first match back.
Sevilla sit sixth in La Liga having won four, drawn two and lost three of their nine matches so far. On paper that looks respectable, and it is, once you factor in the quality of opposition they have faced during their current rough patch. All three of their defeats have come against the top three teams in Spain. A 3-1 home loss to Barcelona was followed by a 3-3 draw at Levante, and then a 4-1 hammering at the Bernabeu where Manu Bueno’s late goal amounted to nothing more than a consolation. That was also their first away defeat of the campaign and a sixth consecutive loss on Real Madrid’s ground.
The worrying thread running through those recent results is the goals conceded column. Three shipped in each of their last three outings is a pattern that suggests something has gone wrong at the back. Before that run they had back to back wins without conceding, so the defensive structure is clearly there when things click. They do at least carry a goal threat consistently, having scored in every single league game this season. The problem is they have only found the net more than once in one of their four home matches, so the firepower at the Pizjuan has not exactly been relentless.
Osasuna’s campaign looked like it was curdling before Arrasate walked back through the door. One point from five games is a miserable return and the performances before his appointment were not convincing anyone. But the 2-0 home win over Racing Santander told a very different story. Organised, controlled, Budimir scoring from the spot and Osambela wrapping it up late on. The clean sheet felt significant given they had looked so porous before. That said, their away form this term remains a real concern. They have conceded at least four goals in each of their last three road trips, which is a brutal stat to carry into any fixture.
Jagoba Arrasate has an extraordinary personal record against Sevilla as a manager. He is unbeaten across his last 10 competitive meetings with them, and that includes a league double over the Andalusian side when he was in charge of Mallorca last season. Whether that streak translates given the upheaval of him only just returning to the Osasuna job is hard to say, but it is a stat that would give his players real confidence.
From Sevilla’s perspective, they did manage to snap a three game winless run in home fixtures against Osasuna last season when Ruben Vargas converted a late penalty to win 1-0. That scoreline tells you these two sides tend to produce tight, low scoring affairs when they meet, and there is nothing in the history between them to suggest this one will be a goal fest.
This shapes up as a genuinely tight fixture. Sevilla need a home win to get back on track, but they have been shipping goals freely, Osasuna’s away record is dreadful, and yet Arrasate tends to find a way against this particular opponent. The smart money is on a cagey, contested game where goals come at a premium and neither side manages to pull clear.
Yes, and it is not a straightforward call. Sevilla have scored in every game this season and Budimir has been on fire in front of goal lately, with a strong personal record at this ground specifically. Both defences have been vulnerable in different ways recently, and the feeling here is that both sides will find the net at least once.
Ante Budimir stands out here. He has scored in three consecutive La Liga matches, he netted from the spot in Arrasate’s first game back in charge, and he has a genuinely impressive record at the Pizjuan, having scored on each of his last two visits to Seville. He is an experienced penalty box striker and if Osasuna create anything, the ball is likely to find him.
Over 3.5 cards feels worth a look. This is a competitive La Liga fixture between two sides with something to prove, and the pressure on Sevilla to get a result at home after their recent form could make things feisty in midfield. Arrasate’s teams tend to be organised and physical on the road, and that combination usually generates a few bookings.
Under 9.5 corners looks the angle here. Sevilla have not been a high volume attacking team in home games this season, and Osasuna under Arrasate are typically set up to be compact and hard to break down rather than committing men forward in waves. The pattern of head to head meetings also points towards a controlled, low tempo affair rather than one dominated by wing play and set piece deliveries.
A 1-1 draw feels like the most likely outcome when you weigh everything up. Sevilla will almost certainly score given their consistent goal record this season, and Budimir’s form and personal record at this ground makes an Osasuna goal highly plausible. But neither side looks capable of running away with it right now, and a share of the spoils fits the head to head pattern and the current state of both teams.
Under 2.5 goals at a tight price. The last meeting here ended 1-0, Osasuna are set up to be difficult to break down under Arrasate, and while Sevilla have been scoring, their home games have often been low scoring affairs this season. The conditions are right for a tight game that does not produce a hatful of chances.
| Market | Selection |
|---|---|
| Both Teams To Score | Yes |
| Total Goals | Under 2.5 |
| First Goalscorer | Ante Budimir |
A 1-1 result with Budimir opening the scoring ties all three of these selections together neatly and reflects exactly how this game looks like it will unfold.
Sevilla need to win this and they have the home advantage, but they have been leaking goals and the pressure of needing a result can sometimes work against a team rather than for them. Osasuna arrive battered by their away form this season but with real renewed belief under a manager who simply does not seem to lose against this particular opponent.
Budimir scoring at a ground he clearly fancies, Sevilla grabbing one back through Vargas or one of their creative midfielders, and the game ending all square. That is the call. Sevilla 1-1 Osasuna, with both sides taking a point that probably satisfies neither.
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