Liverpool vs Chelsea Prediction, Betting Tips & Preview

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Liverpool

vs

Chelsea

KickoffWednesday 28 October 2026, 8:00pm

VenueAnfield

CompetitionEFL Cup

TV ChannelITV

There is something genuinely compelling about this fixture beyond the usual Liverpool versus Chelsea theatre. Xabi Alonso walks back into Anfield as a manager for the third time, but the first as Chelsea boss, which gives the whole occasion a layer of intrigue that a standard EFL Cup tie rarely carries. The Anfield crowd will have a complicated relationship with that moment. They love what Alonso gave them as a player, but they will absolutely not be letting sentiment get in the way of a quarter final place. And after the week Chelsea have just had, Alonso needs a response from his squad as much as anything.

Liverpool under Andoni Iraola are growing into something serious. They have already shown they can come from behind, grind it out and turn on the style in the same week. Chelsea, meanwhile, blew hot against Everton and then looked completely second best at home to Spurs. These are two clubs at very different points of their week psychologically, and that contrast makes the tactical battle between two smart managers genuinely worth watching.

Liverpool vs Chelsea Match Details

The fourth round of the EFL Cup brings these two together at Anfield, with the winners advancing to the quarter finals of the competition. Liverpool knocked out Tottenham 3-1 in the previous round to get here, while Chelsea progressed via wins over Luton Town and Leeds United. Alonso’s side make the trip to Merseyside looking for a response after a chastening home defeat to Spurs at the weekend.

Team News

Iraola is expected to shuffle his pack significantly given Liverpool have Arsenal looming on Sunday, which means several of his first choice names are likely to be given a breather. Chelsea have their own selection problems, most notably the absence of Cole Palmer through suspension after his red card against Spurs.

Liverpool absentees and doubts:

• Florian Wirtz (foot, doubtful)
• Victor Munoz (knee, doubtful)
• Conor Bradley (knee, out)
• Hugo Ekitike (Achilles, out)
• Jeremie Frimpong (muscle, out)
• Giovanni Leoni (knee, out)
• Dominik Szoboszlai (muscle, out)

Chelsea absentees and doubts:

• Cole Palmer (suspended)
• Reece James (knee, out)
• Emiliano Martinez (broken jaw, out)
• Joao Pedro (being assessed)
• Pep Chavarria (being assessed)
• Emmanuel Emegha (being assessed)
• Jamie Gittens (being assessed)

Predicted Lineups

Iraola is set to make wholesale changes with one eye on the Arsenal game. Alisson Becker and Virgil van Dijk look likely to be rested, while Wirtz, still carrying some concern around his foot after coming off against Brighton, and Bradley Barcola could also sit this one out. That opens the door for younger players to step up, with Rio Ngumoha having already shown he belongs at this level with two assists in the Champions League win over Villarreal. James McConnell and Lewis Koumas could both start, and Cody Gakpo leads the attack.

Liverpool expected lineup: Mamardashvili; Araujo, Jacquet, Gomez, Kerkez; Nyoni, Mac Allister; Ngumoha, McConnell, Gakpo; Koumas

For Chelsea, Alonso faces real selection dilemmas without Palmer pulling the strings in attack. Estevao Willian is pushing for his first start in over a month and could be handed that opportunity here. The shape could go either way, with a back four or a back five potentially in play depending on how Alonso sets up his midfield. Danny Welbeck brings experience and a decent record against this opponent, while Morgan Rogers may feature despite heavy minutes against Spurs.

Chelsea expected lineup: Penders; Gusto, Fofana, Colwill, Palestra; Caicedo, Lavia, Barco; Estevao, Welbeck, Rogers

Recent Form

Liverpool have been excellent. Their only defeat in all competitions this season came against Manchester City, a 3-0 loss that arrived after Ryan Gravenberch was shown two yellow cards with about half an hour left. The game was goalless at that point, which tells you something about how that result came about. Since that afternoon, Iraola’s side have won four consecutive games and done so in varying styles: a 4-3 Champions League comeback against Villarreal from two goals down, a win over nine man Brentford, a 6-3 dismantling of LASK Linz and then Sunday’s composed 2-0 home win over Brighton. That clean sheet against Brighton was their first in five matches, so they are ironing out the defensive details too.

Chelsea’s form is the definition of inconsistent. They beat Everton away from home in their most recent league outing, which looked encouraging, and then Spurs turned up at Stamford Bridge and outplayed them completely for a 2-0 win, the first time Tottenham had won there since 2018. By the sounds of it, the scoreline flattered Chelsea. That is a brutal swing in just seven days and raises real questions about where Alonso’s side actually are right now. Cup football offers a chance to reset, but facing Liverpool at Anfield is hardly an easy backdrop to do it.

Alonso has also faced Liverpool twice as a manager before, losing 4-0 with Bayer Leverkusen and 1-0 with Real Madrid, conceding five goals and scoring none across those two games. He will be desperate to change that particular record, but the home advantage Iraola’s men carry at Anfield is formidable.

Head-to-Head Record

These two have produced some memorable encounters over the years and the head to head between them is competitive over time. Liverpool have generally been the stronger side at Anfield in recent seasons, and Chelsea tend to find the atmosphere at this ground difficult to handle. The Blues can certainly beat Liverpool, they have the squad quality to do it, but they need to be at their best and right now that feels some way off after the Spurs result.

With both managers expected to rotate heavily, this is also something of an unknown quantity in terms of lineups compared to their usual Premier League meetings. A less familiar Chelsea side heading to Anfield with no Palmer is a very different proposition to their strongest eleven.

Key Stats

• Alonso has faced Liverpool twice as a manager and lost both games, conceding five goals without reply
• Liverpool have won four consecutive games since their only defeat of the season against City, scoring 14 goals in that run
• Chelsea have conceded five goals at home in their last two matches at Stamford Bridge and lost to Spurs for the first time there since 2018

Liverpool vs Chelsea Betting Tips

Liverpool are the clear favourites here and deservedly so. They are at home, in better form, with a manager who knows exactly what rotation looks like without losing the team’s structure. Chelsea are without their most creative player in Palmer, carrying doubt over several other options, and still visibly rattled from the Spurs defeat. There is value in backing Liverpool to win this and plenty of interesting angles in the side markets too given the expected rotation from both sides.

Corners Prediction

Liverpool push forward through the wide areas regularly and with Chelsea likely to sit deeper and absorb pressure at Anfield, expect the hosts to generate a high volume of corners. Both teams’ fullbacks and wide forwards tend to get into crossing positions frequently, so backing over 9.5 corners looks a solid shout for this one.

Over and Under Goals Prediction

The rotation angle is key here. Younger and less experienced players on both sides, combined with Chelsea’s defensive frailties right now and Liverpool’s recent tendency to get themselves into open, chaotic games, points toward goals. The 4-3 Champions League win over Villarreal and the 6-3 against LASK show Liverpool are not shy about high scoring nights under the lights. Back over 2.5 goals with confidence.

Cards Prediction

Chelsea’s midfield will need to work overtime without Palmer, and players like Caicedo have a tendency to pick up bookings when the team is under sustained pressure. Add in the intensity of playing at Anfield in a knockout tie and you would expect the referee to have a busy evening. Over 3.5 cards feels like a reasonable line to back for this fixture.

First Goalscorer Prediction

Cody Gakpo looks a strong shout here. He is likely to start with the senior forwards rested, he is sharp at the moment and he has a knack for arriving in the right areas at the right time. With Liverpool expected to dominate possession and create chances consistently, Gakpo in a free role behind the striker is well placed to get on the scoresheet first.

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) Prediction

Chelsea have enough individual quality to hurt Liverpool even with a rotated side, and Estevao is a genuinely dangerous player who could cause problems. Liverpool’s defending has been leaky enough recently to suggest Chelsea can find a way through. With both teams rotating and some defensive uncertainty on display, yes to both teams scoring looks the right call here.

Bet Builder Tip

Liverpool winning while both teams score fits the narrative of a lively, open game where Chelsea can threaten but the hosts ultimately have too much, and Gakpo is well positioned to open the scoring in a fixture that should see Liverpool on the front foot from the off.

Final Match Prediction

Liverpool to win this one fairly comfortably. Even with rotation, Iraola has built a squad with enough depth to handle a cup tie at home, and the players stepping in, Ngumoha, McConnell, Koumas, all have a point to prove. Chelsea arrive in poor form, without their best attacking player, and facing a ground where their manager has never won. That is a lot to overcome.

The expected scoreline is Liverpool 2-1 Chelsea. Chelsea will nick a goal of their own, perhaps through Estevao or Welbeck, but Liverpool have the quality and the home advantage to see it through and book their place in the quarter finals.

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