Manchester City vs Brighton & Hove Albion Prediction, Betting Tips & Preview

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Manchester City

vs

Brighton & Hove Albion

KickoffWednesday 28 October 2026, 7:30pm

VenueEtihad Stadium

CompetitionEFL Cup

Can Manchester City get back on track at home in the EFL Cup, or will a Brighton side packed with firepower cause another upset? Enzo Maresca’s men were handed a reality check at Villa Park on Saturday, and now they face a Brighton outfit that might be short on numbers but is never short on ideas. This one has proper intrigue to it, and with a Premier League meeting following just three days later, both gaffers will be doing some serious squad juggling. Let’s break it all down.

Manchester City vs Brighton & Hove Albion Match Details

This EFL Cup fourth round tie takes place at the Etihad Stadium in Manchester. It is the first of two meetings between these sides in the space of a few days, with a Premier League fixture also on the horizon, making selection decisions for both managers particularly interesting. Manchester City are the current holders and nine-time winners of this competition, chasing Liverpool’s all-time record of ten EFL Cup triumphs.

Team News

Both sides come into this with injury concerns, though City’s list is relatively manageable while Brighton are dealing with a growing casualty ward heading into a punishing run of away fixtures.

• Antoine Semenyo (knee) is Man City’s only confirmed absentee.
• Matheus Nunes and Nico O’Reilly are both available after recovering from minor issues and are pushing for starts at fullback.
• Gianluigi Donnarumma is under pressure after his error at Villa Park, with Geronimo Rulli likely to come in as cup goalkeeper.
• Phil Foden, Ayyoub Bouaddi, Mateo Kovacic, Allan and Ryan McAiddo are all in contention for recalls if Maresca rotates.
• Erling Haaland scored at Villa but may be rested, with 17-year-old Floyd Samba a potential replacement up front after his brace on debut against Norwich.
• Brighton are sweating over Ferdi Kadioglu (hip) and Chema Andres (muscle), both forced off against Liverpool.
• Mats Wieffer (knee) and Yankuba Minteh (ankle) are making progress but their availability is uncertain.
• Kaoru Mitoma, Femi Azeez, Pascal Struijk (all thigh), Evan Ferguson (ankle) and Stefanos Tzimas (knee) are all definitely out.

Predicted Lineups

Maresca looks set to freshen things up considerably. Rulli should get the gloves in goal, and with O’Reilly and potentially Nunes available at fullback, the back four can rotate without losing too much quality. Bouaddi, Kovacic and Allan could form a midfield three, with Foden and Doku providing the creative spark either side. The big question is whether Haaland starts or gets a breather with a league game around the corner. Samba showed he can be trusted in the cup, and this feels like the kind of occasion where Maresca gives the teenager another chance.

Hurzeler will also rotate. Costinha and Hadjam are likely to fill the fullback slots, with Hinshelwood, Yalcouye and O’Riley pushing for midfield berths. Charalampos Kostoulas has been their top scorer this season with five goals but could make way for Georginio Rutter in attack. Brighton will still want to play their football regardless of the changes made, which is both their greatest strength and occasionally their Achilles heel on the road.

Recent Form

City were flying until the weekend. Seven straight Premier League wins to open the Maresca era was a stunning start, and the brand of football has been genuinely impressive at times. But the cracks appeared at Villa Park, where they conceded two preventable goals either side of half time to lose 2-1. What is more concerning is the pattern behind that result. City have conceded nine times across their last four matches in all competitions without keeping a single clean sheet. Compare that to the eight goals they shipped in their previous nine games and you can see the defensive solidity is slipping. Arsenal drawing level at the top will sting, and there will be a reaction here but the defensive vulnerability is a real talking point right now.

Brighton’s form is a study in contrasts. They were banging goals in left, right and centre before this recent blip, scoring three or more in five of their last six matches including a 5-0 demolition of Crystal Palace. But they have gone blank in their last two, drawing 0-0 in the Conference League against Jablonec and then losing 2-0 at Anfield despite having 64 percent of the ball and managing just one shot on target. Hurzeler was defiant afterwards, insisting his side were the only team trying to win the game. He has a point on the territory and possession stats, but the end product has dried up at a bad time.

The bigger picture for Brighton is still very bright. Third in the Premier League, five points clear of sixth place, and already through to the fourth round of the cup after their remarkable 3-2 comeback win at Old Trafford where they were two down at half time. That resilience is a real asset. The question is whether a heavily rotated side can rediscover their attacking spark at a ground where they have never won.

Head-to-Head Record

Brighton’s record at the Etihad is pretty brutal. Seventeen attempts away to Man City and not a single win, with three draws and fourteen defeats. However, there is a more optimistic recent trend for the Seagulls. They have drawn their last two Premier League visits, 2-2 in March 2025 and 1-1 in January 2026, so they are at least showing they can compete here now in a way they simply could not a few years ago.

In the EFL Cup specifically, Brighton have been knocked out at the fourth round stage in five of the last six seasons. That is a remarkable stat for a club that has grown so significantly. They lost 2-0 at Arsenal in the same round last season and have not gone beyond this stage since 1978-79. City meanwhile have won nine of these trophies and know how to navigate the cup. The historical numbers heavily favour the hosts here.

Key Stats

• Man City have conceded nine goals across their last four matches in all competitions without a clean sheet.
• Brighton are the third-highest scorers in Europe this season with 34 goals, but have failed to score in their last two matches.
• Brighton have never won away at Man City in 17 attempts, though they have drawn the last two Premier League visits.

Manchester City vs Brighton & Hove Albion Betting Tips

City are the obvious home favourites but their defensive form makes backing them to keep things clean look risky. Brighton will rotate heavily but they still have plenty of creativity even in a second-string side, and their recent away record against City suggests they will not simply roll over. The angle here is less about who wins and more about how the game is played, and both teams finding the net feels very much in play given what we know about both sides right now.

Over and Under Goals Prediction

Given City’s defensive fragility and Brighton’s attacking quality even in a rotated lineup, over 2.5 goals looks the way to go. City have been leaking at one end and scoring at the other, and Brighton showed against Man United in the third round that they can find the net in this competition. Back over 2.5 goals.

Correct Score Prediction

A City win feels likely on home soil in a competition they are desperate to retain, but Brighton will contribute to an open game. A 3-1 home win captures both City’s attacking threat and the likelihood that Hurzeler’s side get something back, especially with a rotated City backline that has been susceptible recently.

Corners Prediction

Brighton love to have the ball and work wide areas, and City at home tend to push forward aggressively. Both managers will encourage attacking play even with rotated sides. Over 9.5 corners looks a solid shout in a game where both teams get forward and neither sits particularly deep.

Cards Prediction

With a Premier League rematch following just three days later, there may be a slight edge to some of the challenges here as players compete for starting spots and neither side wants to lose ground in the broader rivalry. Over 3.5 cards feels reasonable for a cup tie where both teams will be competitive and there are points to prove across the squad.

Bet Builder Tip

City’s home advantage and cup pedigree point to a win, while the defensive concerns on both sides and Brighton’s quality even when rotating make both teams scoring a natural fit alongside the expected high corner count in an open, attack-minded cup tie.

Final Match Prediction

Manchester City should have enough to advance, especially with home advantage and the motivation to respond after the Villa defeat. But this will not be comfortable. Brighton have shown in recent visits that they can compete at the Etihad, and even a heavily rotated Seagulls side carries real threat going forward. City’s backline has been shaky and that will be tested again here.

Expect City to win, but expect Brighton to score. A 3-1 home win feels right, with City using this game to restore some confidence before the two sides do it all again in the Premier League shortly after. Maresca will want his squad players to take ownership of this one, and there is enough quality in City’s depth to get the job done.

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