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Manchester United
RomaNine games without a win. Let that sink in for a moment. Manchester United, one of the most decorated clubs on the planet, have not tasted victory since beating European debutants Sabah nearly two months ago. That is not a rough patch. That is a crisis. And now, under the glare of the Old Trafford lights in the Champions League, Michael Carrick must somehow find a way to stop the rot against a Roma side who are in devastating goalscoring form and will fancy their chances enormously.
What makes this even harder to stomach from a United perspective is that there were genuine signs of life in the first half at Stamford Bridge. Amad Diallo had two chances he should have buried. For 45 minutes, there was a flicker. Then Chelsea turned it on, Lisandro Martinez lost the plot completely with two yellows in 90 seconds, conceded a penalty in the process, Cole Palmer did what Cole Palmer does, and it was game over. Carrick got his vote of confidence after the 3-0 mauling by Bournemouth, which in football terms usually means the clock is ticking loudly. Roma will be well aware of the noise coming out of Old Trafford, and they will come here looking to turn up the volume.
This Champions League matchday four fixture takes place at Old Trafford, with United desperate for points in the group and Roma arriving in fine fettle from Serie A. United currently sit 21st in the Champions League standings, and the pressure on everyone connected with the club is immense. Roma, sitting 15th in Serie A, have been far more consistent on the continental stage and will view this as an excellent opportunity to make a statement.
United have a few selection headaches to work through, while Roma are carrying a notable absentee list but still have plenty of quality to call upon.
Carrick looks set to deploy Martinez alongside Harry Maguire at the heart of defence despite the centre back’s recent indiscipline, with Diogo Dalot and Noussair Mazraoui providing width at full back. The midfield shape is intriguing. Kobbie Mainoo and Andrey Santos look likely to form the base, with Youri Tielemans pushed forward into a more advanced central role. That could push Bruno Fernandes out to a wider position, with Mason Mount slotting in as the third attacking midfielder. Bryan Mbeumo leads the line, and Matheus Cunha is likely to be kept in reserve off the bench.
Roma will set up in a compact shape with Pierluigi Gollini replacing the suspended Svilar between the sticks. Mats Hummels replacement Evan N’Dicka, Gianluca Mancini and Mario Hermoso form the back three, with Nahuel Molina and Wesley providing the wing back energy. Manu De Roon and Nicolo Pisilli anchor the midfield, with Bryan Cristante and Matias Soule operating in the more advanced roles. Donyell Malen leads the attack and is the man United will need to keep quiet above all others.
United’s form is genuinely alarming. Nine games without a win across all competitions, three defeats on the bounce, and four losses in the last five. The Bournemouth result was the one that really stung, a 3-0 home hammering that prompted the vote of confidence that everyone in football knows is rarely a good sign. Even in the games where United have shown something, like that first half at Chelsea, they have been unable to hold on to any momentum. There is a fragility about this side right now that goes beyond tactical issues. The confidence has drained away and it shows.
Roma are a completely different story. Gasperini’s men arrive on the back of five games unbeaten, with four wins in that stretch. More importantly, they have been scoring freely. Three or more goals in four of those five matches, including a stunning 5-2 thumping of Udinese on Saturday. Yes, there are defensive questions. They conceded three against Napoli and two in a 4-2 win over Cagliari, which tells you they are not exactly a team that keeps clean sheets as a matter of routine. But against a United side that is genuinely struggling to score, you would back Roma’s attack over United’s defence every single day of the week right now.
The contrast in momentum here is stark. One team is rolling, the other is searching for anything to hold onto. That context matters enormously when you are sitting down to assess how this game might unfold.
United’s history against Roma in European competition is brutal reading for the Italians. The 7-1 obliteration in the 2007 Champions League quarter final second leg at Old Trafford remains one of the most one-sided European nights this ground has ever seen. More recently, in 2021, United beat them 6-2 in the Europa League. Roma have a genuinely horrible record at Old Trafford and have never managed to win there in a European tie.
That historical weight is worth noting, but you have to be careful about leaning too heavily on it. The United side that inflicted those results bare no resemblance to the outfit currently struggling in 17th place in the Premier League. Roma will know that too. They are not walking into Old Trafford to face a team at the peak of its powers. They are walking in against a wounded club in turmoil, and that changes the dynamic completely.
This is one of those fixtures where the form book points in one very clear direction. A struggling home side without a win in nine, hosting a team who are banging goals in from all angles. The temptation to back the away side is strong, and honestly, the numbers back it up. United may nick a goal given Roma’s tendency to ship them, but backing the Giallorossi to come out on top feels like the sensible angle here.
With United desperate and under pressure, and a Roma side who are confident and physical in the press, this has the makings of a feisty one. Carrick’s players will be fighting for their careers in some respects, and that kind of desperation tends to show in the bookings column. Expect at least three or four yellow cards across the 90 minutes, with United’s midfield likely to pick up a couple through sheer frustration.
Roma have the quality to hurt United multiple times, and with the home side’s defensive record as shaky as it is, a comfortable away win looks the most likely outcome. United may get on the scoresheet given Roma’s own leaky backline, but Malen and company should ultimately be too much to handle. Prediction: Manchester United 1-3 Roma.
Donyell Malen is the standout pick here. Eight league goals, three Champions League strikes already this season, and the fact that he is carrying Roma’s attack largely on his own in the absence of Dybala and Pellegrini means he will be taking responsibility when chances arrive. He has the movement and the instinct to punish a United backline that has been all over the place in recent weeks.
Given Roma’s free-scoring nature and their own defensive vulnerabilities, combined with the fact that United will be pushing forward out of desperation at some point in this game, there is every reason to expect goals at both ends. Over 2.5 goals looks a strong play, and honestly over 3.5 is not without its appeal given the way both teams have been performing.
Roma have been leaking goals even while winning comfortably, and United, despite all their struggles, did create chances at Chelsea. Mbeumo is a threat and Fernandes will always look to make something happen. If United are going to score against anyone, it is a Roma side who conceded two to Cagliari and two to Udinese in recent weeks. Both teams to score looks well worth backing here.
United will be forced to chase the game at some point, and when they do they tend to get bodies forward and invite corner situations. Roma’s wide play through their wing backs also generates a healthy number of set piece situations. Over 9.5 corners looks a reasonable call for this one, with the nature of the contest likely to push the tally well into double figures by the final whistle.
| Market | Selection |
|---|---|
| First Goalscorer | Donyell Malen |
| Both Teams To Score | Yes |
| Over Goals | Over 2.5 Goals |
Malen opening the scoring in a game where both sides find the net and the goals keep coming feels like a natural combination given the form of both clubs heading into this fixture.
There is nothing in United’s recent performances to suggest they can handle a Roma side playing with this level of confidence and this kind of cutting edge in attack. Malen is in the form of his career, Gasperini has this team well drilled going forward, and while they will concede at least once because that is just what they do right now, they have more than enough to outscore whatever United manage to put together.
Old Trafford has been a miserable place to watch football this season, and Tuesday night looks set to continue that theme. Carrick needs a result badly but the numbers simply do not stack up in his favour. Roma to win 3-1, Malen to be the central figure, and the pressure on everyone associated with Manchester United to crank up another notch before the week is out.
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