Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo Berrettini Prediction, ATP Paris Day 4 Betting Tips

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Paris has already thrown up some massive upsets this week, with Djokovic, Zverev, Medvedev, Rune and Khachanov all sent packing and Sinner absent from the draw entirely. That guarantees a first time champion at Bercy this year, which makes Thursday’s round of sixteen an absolutely compelling watch. Every match has real consequence and real uncertainty attached to it. Here is how I see the day playing out.

Nuno Borges vs Ignacio Buse

Buse leads their only previous meeting, though the head to head is essentially irrelevant at this stage. What matters is that both players are in unfamiliar territory at this level, with Buse reaching the last sixteen of a Masters event for the first time in his career. Borges has been here before but has fallen at this hurdle five times already, including twice this season, which is a stat that will not sit comfortably with him.

On indoor hard courts Borges is the more natural fit of the two, and his experience of navigating these high pressure situations should count for something even if that experience has not always ended well. This one will come down to who handles their nerves better when it matters most. I think Borges finds a way through, but do not expect it to be comfortable.

Lorenzo Musetti vs Luca van Assche

Musetti and Van Assche are level at one win apiece in their previous encounters, and their most recent clash in Lyon was an absolute war that went the distance. These two bring out something intense in each other and there is no reason to think Thursday will be any different. Musetti arrives here on the back of a superb victory over the world number one Zverev, which was a genuine statement win and should give him enormous confidence going into this match.

Van Assche has been in solid form himself and plays with a tenacity that makes him dangerous at every level. He will not give Musetti an easy ride. That said, Musetti is the more complete player at this point in both their careers and has that extra gear when the pressure is on. The Italian will want to rescue something meaningful from what has been a frustrating season overall, and that hunger could be the decisive factor here.

Rinky Hijikata vs Tomas Martin Etcheverry

Etcheverry leads their head to head by one win to nil, though both players will be thinking far more about the prize ahead than past meetings. Hijikata has had the week of his career, with a win over Djokovic standing as the defining moment of his professional life so far. Etcheverry has been equally relentless, knocking out both Rublev and De Minaur in successive rounds to reach this stage.

A first Masters 1000 quarterfinal is there for both men to claim and the motivation on each side of the net could not be higher. The indoor surface might suit Hijikata’s game to some extent, but Etcheverry is simply the better all round player and has demonstrated this week that he can beat quality opponents back to back without fading. His physicality and consistency should be the difference.

Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo Berrettini

Alcaraz leads this rivalry three wins to one and comes into the match looking sharp after recovering from an injury that disrupted much of his season. He looks hungry again, which is a worrying sign for everyone else left in the draw. Berrettini has genuine motivation of his own, needing a strong result here to secure a top forty finish for the year, and in theory the indoor hard court surface gives him more of a platform than some recent venues might have.

The problem for Berrettini is that Alcaraz is not operating at a level where theoretical surface advantages really shift the balance. The Italian has been well below his best for a prolonged period now and needs to produce something close to a career best performance to have any realistic chance of winning. That is a big ask against someone as dynamic and in form as Alcaraz currently looks.

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