AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen Prediction, Betting Tips & Preview

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AZ Alkmaar

vs

Groningen

KickoffSunday 8 November 2026, 3:45pm

VenueAFAS Stadion Alkmaar

CompetitionDutch Eredivisie

AZ Alkmaar have been one of the stories of the Eredivisie season, and not entirely for the right reasons lately. A side that swept through August without dropping a point, winning all four league games and picking up their gaffer Leeroy Echteld the first Rinus Michels Coach of the Month award of the campaign, now finds itself staring down three straight defeats and a crowd of questions about where it all went wrong. Groningen arrive at the AFAS Stadion in decent company for a side sitting eighth, having put 26 league goals past opponents this season, but their record against the top four makes grim reading. Something has to give, and that tension between a struggling host with serious underlying quality and a visitor who cannot handle elite opposition is what makes this one genuinely compelling.

The xG merchants will tell you AZ should not be this deep in a rut. They had 2.30 expected goals to Ajax’s 0.72 at the Johan Cruijff Arena and still came away empty handed. Echteld himself said the data has never looked this good while the results have never felt this bad. Games against Feyenoord, Twente, Ajax and Juventus have brought zero points, but Groningen are very much not in that bracket, and home comforts against an eighth place side might be exactly the tonic AZ need.

AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen Match Details

This Eredivisie fixture takes place at the AFAS Stadion in Alkmaar, where AZ have been a tough nut to crack for most opponents this season. Groningen have made the trip to Alkmaar five times in all competitions since December 2021 and have lost every single one of those visits, including a 4-1 defeat back in August 2025. The league table has AZ in fifth and Groningen in eighth, so there is plenty at stake for both sides in terms of positioning in what is shaping up to be a competitive top half of the Eredivisie.

Team News

AZ have a few selection headaches going into this one, with the Juventus fixture leaving its mark on the squad. The recovery window is tighter for the hosts too, with roughly 68 hours between Thursday night’s Europa League kickoff and this match, compared to a full week of preparation for Groningen.

• Lewis Schouten is the main concern after going off with a hamstring problem against Juventus, with Wesley Hoedt deputising in his absence
• Stije Resink is out long term with a serious knee injury and is not expected back until January
• Jizz Hornkamp and goalkeeper Jeroen Zoet are also unavailable
• Kees Smit made a return from the bench against Juventus but Echteld confirmed he is not ready to start
• Jordy Clasie, 35, and Elijah Dijkstra are bench options though Clasie has admitted he finds his reduced role difficult
• No suspensions reported for AZ
• Groningen are without forward Ryan Metu and midfielder Travis Hernes, who had an operation this week
• David van der Werff and Alvin Nordin are doubts for Dick Lukkien’s side
• Elvis van der Laan and Tyrique Mercera are back from injury and available

Predicted Lineups

Echteld is likely to stick with the front three that started in Europe, with Mexx Meerdink, Calvin Stengs and Ro-Zangelo Daal leading the attack. Hoedt is expected to continue at centre back in place of the injured Schouten, which is a notable change to a back line that was already looking a bit shaky before Thursday. The midfield and defensive shape will be familiar but under real scrutiny given the errors that gifted Juventus both their goals.

AZ Alkmaar: De Busser; Kasius, Goes, Hoedt, De Wit; Kwakman, Byskov, Koopmeiners; Stengs, Meerdink, Daal

Lukkien should go with the same 4-2-3-1 that faced Sparta Rotterdam, with Brynjolfur Willumsson leading the line and Jacob Ondrejka, Thom van Bergen and Jorg Schreuders supporting behind him. Pelle Clement and Tika de Jonge will anchor the midfield, with Hans Hateboer at right back offering experience across the defensive line.

Groningen: Vaessen; Hateboer, Blokzijl, Rente, Csinger; Clement, De Jonge, Schreuders, Van Bergen, Ondrejka; Willumsson

Recent Form

AZ’s recent run is one of those sequences that makes you scratch your head. The raw performances have been decent by any analytical measure, yet the results column looks awful. A 2-0 defeat to Twente, then a 1-0 loss at Ajax despite dominating the shot map, then a 2-1 Europa League defeat to Juventus in which both goals came from AZ’s own defensive errors rather than anything Juve manufactured from open play. Randal Kolo Muani exploited a lack of cover on the right for the first, and Mees de Wit’s loss of possession gifted the second. That 17-match unbeaten run in European home games is now gone, and the confidence that carried AZ through August looks a lot more fragile right now.

What is worth noting is that all four of those winless games have come against the top tier of Dutch and European football. AZ have conceded 13 league goals in 11 games, which actually puts them on a par with PSV, Ajax and Heerenveen, and only Twente and Feyenoord have been tighter. The underlying quality is there. A fixture against Groningen feels like the right moment to rediscover it.

Groningen’s form is a mixed bag. The 2-2 draw at NEC was actually a decent result, with Willumsson bagging twice before halftime before the hosts clawed it back. But a 2-0 cup exit at home to second tier Emmen was a bad night, and the 3-2 defeat to Sparta stings because Ondrejka had the ball in the net after just 17 seconds only for Groningen to let the game slip away and concede a cruel empty netter in the 85th minute when Vaessen and Hateboer got their wires crossed. Three defeats in four across all competitions is not the form you want heading to a ground where you have never won in five years.

Head-to-Head Record

Groningen did win the most recent Eredivisie meeting between these two, a 3-0 victory at the Euroborg in March 2026 through a Marvin Peersman penalty and goals from Van Bergen and Tygo Land. That will give Lukkien’s side some belief. But the away record tells a very different story. Groningen have lost all five visits to Alkmaar in all competitions since December 2021, with that 4-1 loss in August 2025 the most recent reminder of how inhospitable the AFAS Stadion tends to be for them. Home advantage has been a real factor in this fixture, and it is hard to ignore a five-match losing streak on the road in this matchup.

Key Stats

• AZ created 2.30 expected goals at Ajax and still lost 1-0, suggesting the finishing and final ball needs work but the creativity is very much there
• Groningen have conceded 12 goals in three games against the current top four and taken just one point from those matches
• Willumsson leads the Eredivisie scoring charts jointly on eight goals, alongside Wout Weghorst and Soren Tengstedt
• 14 of Groningen’s 15 league points have come against clubs in the bottom half of the table
• Groningen have scored in nine of their last ten games across all competitions

AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen Betting Tips

AZ look overdue a performance that actually translates into three points, and Groningen’s vulnerability against quality opposition makes this a fixture where the home side can finally turn their expected goals into actual goals. Willumsson is a genuine threat and Groningen do find the net regularly, so the smart angle here is not shutout territory but rather AZ winning a game that sees the ball hit the back of the net at both ends.

First Goalscorer Prediction

Ro-Zangelo Daal leads AZ’s scoring in the league with five goals and is the focal point of the attack. With Groningen likely to give the hosts more space than Twente, Ajax or Juventus, Daal operating in that front three should get his chance early. He is the man to back to open the scoring.

Correct Score Prediction

AZ have the quality to control large portions of this game and finally turn their xG into something tangible. Groningen will not be shut out entirely given they have scored in nine of their last ten, but the home side should have enough to secure a 2-1 win, which mirrors the prediction the data points toward when you weigh up both sides’ underlying numbers.

Over and Under Goals Prediction

AZ have been generating chances at a healthy rate all season and Groningen have been conceding freely against top-half opposition. With both sides having attacking intent and Groningen’s defence looking suspect, over 2.5 goals feels like the right call here. Three or more goals in this fixture looks very achievable.

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) Prediction

Groningen have found the net in nine of their last ten across all competitions, and even though AZ have tightened up defensively relative to Groningen’s output, Willumsson and Van Bergen are more than capable of punishing any nervy moments in the AZ back four, particularly with Schouten a doubt. BTTS yes is the call.

Bet Builder Tip

AZ winning a goal-filled game with their top scorer opening the account ties together the home side’s underlying quality, Groningen’s habit of finding the net, and Daal’s status as the most likely candidate to get on the scoresheet first.

Final Match Prediction

AZ have been desperately unlucky in recent weeks and the numbers back that up. The xG, the shot counts, the control in games they have lost. It has all been there. Groningen are a step down from the opponents who have beaten AZ lately, and crucially they have never handled the AFAS Stadion well in recent years. Echteld’s side are due a performance that actually pays off, and this fixture sets up nicely for one.

Groningen will not come here and lie down. Willumsson is in the form of his life and Van Bergen showed against Sparta that he can contribute at both ends. But the gap in quality over the course of ninety minutes should tell. AZ Alkmaar 2-1 Groningen.

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