Canada vs Guatemala Prediction, Betting Tips & Preview

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Canada

vs

Guatemala

KickoffTuesday 17 November 2026, 1:00am

VenueBMO Field

CompetitionCONCACAF Nations League

Canada are ninety minutes away from booking their place in the CONCACAF Nations League semi-finals, and they know exactly what they need to do. Avoid defeat at BMO Field and they are through. After a 3-2 win in leg one, Jesse Marsch’s side hold all the cards, and playing in front of their own supporters at a ground where they have not lost in nearly three years makes this a very comfortable position to be in.

Guatemala, on the other hand, are staring down the barrel. Luis Fernando Tena’s side conceded three goals in the first forty-five minutes of the opening leg, which is as many as they had let in during the entire group phase of this competition. To have any chance of going through, they need to win away from home for the first time in 2026. That is a monumental ask given their record on the road this year.

Canada vs Guatemala Match Details

This second leg of the CONCACAF Nations League quarter-final tie takes place at BMO Field in Toronto, Canada’s regular home venue for international football. The aggregate score going into this fixture stands at 3-2 in favour of the hosts, meaning Guatemala need to overturn a one-goal deficit to have any hope of progressing. Canada simply need to avoid defeat to advance and reach the semi-finals for a second consecutive year.

Team News

The big talking point on the Canada side is Alphonso Davies. The captain was forced off inside the opening ten minutes of leg one with a suspected lower body issue and will play no part in this second leg. It is a blow, but Canada showed on Friday that they can still function without him. Ralph Priso is the likely replacement at left back.

• Alphonso Davies is out with a lower body injury sustained in leg one
• Ralph Priso expected to come in at left back in his place
• Kevin Khan is in the squad and could be in line for a first senior cap
• Tani Oluwaseyi, Liam Millar and Jonathan David all netted in the first leg and are available
• Jonathan Franco and Carlos Estrada are both serving the second game of a three-match suspension for Guatemala
• Jorge Aparicio is dealing with an ankle injury and is a doubt
• Oscar Santis scored in leg one and is available for the visitors

Predicted Lineups

Marsch is unlikely to tinker too much given what is at stake and the fact that the same group of players put three goals past Guatemala less than a week ago. Priso slots in for Davies at left back, but the rest of the shape should look familiar. Jonathan David leads the line with Oluwaseyi alongside him, and Millar will be looking to cause problems out wide again after getting on the scoresheet in the first leg.

Canada: Crepeau; Laryea, De Fougerolles, Waterman, Priso; Buchanan, Saliba, Choiniere, Millar; Oluwaseyi, J. David

Tena has real headaches in his squad with the suspensions to Franco and Estrada, and the ongoing concern over Aparicio’s ankle. Guatemala will likely set up to be hard to break down and hope to nick something on the counter, possibly looking to Rubin and Lom to cause problems in behind. But with their attacking options limited and their away record as poor as it is, the gaffer faces a tough afternoon of selection.

Guatemala: Hagen; Herrera, Yanes, Samayoa, Morales; Santis, Saravia, Rosales, Escobar; Lom, Rubin

Recent Form

Canada’s performance in leg one was genuinely impressive when you put it in context. The three goals they scored in that match matched what they had managed across their previous three internationals combined. There was real quality in their finishing, with Oluwaseyi getting his third senior goal, Millar scoring for a second time in a Canada shirt, and David now up to 44 international goals, cementing his status as the country’s all-time record scorer. The concession of two goals was slightly sloppy, particularly the own goal from De Fougerolles in stoppage time, but the overall display was controlled and clinical.

At BMO Field specifically, Canada’s record is exceptional. They have not lost there in close to three years, and that fortress mentality will matter tonight. They also have a strong head of steam against Central American opposition, having not been beaten by a team from that region in ninety minutes since Honduras got them in the group stage of this competition back in 2022. The progression from that period to now has been significant.

Guatemala’s away form in 2026 has been nothing short of dreadful. They have lost five of six matches played on the road this year and failed to score in four of those games. Even in the Nations League specifically, they have dropped two of their last three away fixtures while conceding three goals in two of those matches. The late own goal and the Santis strike give them a slim hope mathematically, but the form book makes it very hard to see them building on that.

Head-to-Head Record

These two nations have not met on Canadian soil since 2004, when Guatemala pulled off a 2-0 victory in Vancouver. That is a long time ago, and neither squad nor the football context bears much resemblance to what exists now. Canada have grown enormously as a footballing nation in the years since, and the current generation represents the strongest group of players the country has ever produced.

The opening leg gave us fresh head-to-head material, and it showed Canada as the more organised and clinical side. Guatemala had their moments, particularly in the second half, but they were chasing the game and needed Canada to make errors to stay in it. On neutral evidence from that match alone, Canada look like the better side by a clear margin.

Key Stats

• Canada are unbeaten at BMO Field in nearly three years
• Guatemala have lost five of six away matches in 2026, failing to score in four of them
• Jonathan David has 44 international goals, and Canada scored three times in leg one after managing just three in the previous three games combined

Canada vs Guatemala Betting Tips

Canada have the advantage, the home ground, the momentum and a defensive record at BMO Field that makes them very tough to beat in Toronto. Guatemala’s away form is genuinely alarming, and the suspensions to two key players makes their task even harder. The value here is firmly in Canada’s corner, and a clean sheet looks very achievable given how little the Guatemalans have threatened on their travels this year.

Over and Under Goals Prediction

The first leg gave us five goals, but this one feels tighter. Canada will be measured rather than gung-ho, and Guatemala will prioritise not conceding more than they already have. Under 2.5 goals is worth considering, with Canada likely to get the one or two they need without this being a wide-open affair.

First Goalscorer Prediction

Jonathan David scored in the first leg and is in the kind of form that makes him almost impossible to leave off a first scorer shortlist. He now has 44 goals for Canada and seems to thrive in these knockout moments. Back him to get on the scoresheet early and set the tone for the hosts.

Correct Score Prediction

Canada 2-0 Guatemala. The home side have the firepower to get a couple, and given how rarely Guatemala have scored away from home in 2026, a clean sheet for Canada feels like a realistic outcome. Two goals gives Canada a healthy aggregate cushion and matches the kind of controlled winning performance Marsch will be targeting.

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) Prediction

No. Guatemala have failed to score in four of their six away matches in 2026, and without Franco and Estrada available, their attacking threat is further reduced. Canada’s back four at BMO Field has been solid, and there is every reason to believe the home side keep a clean sheet here.

Corners Prediction

Over 8.5 corners looks appealing. Canada will push forward looking for the goal that settles nerves, and Guatemala will likely sit deep and invite pressure, which tends to generate plenty of set piece opportunities. With Canada’s wide players active and the visitors defending in numbers, corner counts should be healthy.

Bet Builder Tip

David to get on the scoresheet, Canada to keep a clean sheet, and the corners to pile up as Guatemala park the bus all points to a controlled Canadian performance that generates pressure without necessarily producing a goal-fest.

Final Match Prediction

Canada win this 2-0 and progress 5-2 on aggregate. Jesse Marsch’s side are simply a better team than Guatemala, they are playing at home where they have not lost in years, and the opposition arrive with a dreadful away record and two key players suspended. This is not a banana skin, this is a fixture that sets up almost perfectly for the hosts.

Guatemala showed some fight in the second half of leg one, but that was with the tie still alive and Canada taking their foot off the gas. Tonight, with everything to play for and the crowd behind them, Canada should be disciplined and professional. Les Rouges are heading to the semi-finals.

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