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Crawley Town
Brentford U21Southern Group H comes down to this. Crawley Town and Brentford U21 are level on points going into the final round of fixtures, and a place in the EFL Trophy round of 32 is the prize on offer at Broadfield Stadium. The Red Devils will fancy their chances on home turf against a youth side, but after what happened in the FA Cup at the weekend, nothing can be taken for granted. So who progresses, and where does the value sit in the betting?
Crawley have enough of a goal difference cushion that a draw would likely see them through, which shapes how this game is likely to be played. But football does not always follow the script, and Brentford U21 will arrive with something to prove after being torn apart by MK Dons last time out in this competition.
This fixture takes place at Broadfield Stadium in Crawley, with a spot in the EFL Trophy round of 32 on the line for both sides in what is their final Southern Group H clash. The winner takes top spot, while Crawley know a draw would almost certainly be enough given their superior goal difference over their opponents.
Crawley are likely to name a lineup close to the one that turned out in the FA Cup at the weekend, though the humiliation of that defeat to Wimborne Town will sting. Interim boss Kevin Blackwell has steadied the ship in the league, and he will want a professional performance here to keep momentum going.
Blackwell has limited options in terms of rotation given where Crawley sit in League Two, and with the squad needing confidence, he is likely to put out a strong side rather than ring the changes wholesale.
For Crawley, expect Mannone in goal behind a back four of Gordon, Farquharson, Russell and Richards. Barker and Arthurs should sit in central midfield, with Duke-McKenna, Jennings and Morgan providing the creative threat across the attacking line. Orsi-Dadomo leads from the front. Brentford U21 will likely line up with Rose in goal, a back four of Wheeler-Henry, Avenell, Grey and Picotto, Owen and Gorman in the double pivot, Shield, Hanson and Gustavo Nunes ahead of them, and Holland as the focal point up top.
Crawley’s season has been a messy one. The sacking of Colin Kazim-Richards followed a poor run, and the club brought in Kevin Blackwell as interim manager to steady things. To his credit, Blackwell has picked up four points from two League Two games, drawing with Tranmere Rovers and then beating Oldham Athletic. That Oldham win was a genuinely encouraging result, and you could see the confidence beginning to return at Broadfield Stadium. Nine points in League Two still leaves them bottom of the table, but they have games in hand and the gap to safety is not insurmountable.
The FA Cup exit to Wimborne Town, a Southern Premier South side, is harder to explain away. Losing 2-0 to a club several divisions below you is an embarrassment no matter how you dress it up, and Blackwell will be acutely aware that the feelgood factor he has been building can evaporate quickly if results like that keep happening. In the EFL Trophy, the 4-0 win over Bromley last month showed what this Crawley side is capable of when they click on home turf, and that form in this competition is what they need to replicate here.
Brentford U21 have been entertaining if nothing else. They beat Bournemouth U21 4-3 in a thriller in Premier League 2, then followed that up with a 2-1 cup win over Wycombe U21. But the 2-0 defeat to Wolves U21 on Friday showed that this is a young side still finding its feet, and the 7-1 mauling from MK Dons in the EFL Trophy was a chastening experience. Fifteen goals scored and fifteen conceded in their league campaign tells you all you need to know about their defensive fragility. Sam Saunders will want a reaction, but walking into Broadfield Stadium against a senior side with something to fight for is a tough ask.
Meetings between Crawley Town and Brentford U21 are rare enough that there is no deep well of historical data to draw from. These EFL Trophy group stage fixtures between League Two clubs and Premier League development sides tend to throw up unpredictable results, partly because neither side treats every game in the competition with the same intensity as their league campaign. What we do know is that Crawley beat Bromley 4-0 on this same ground in this same competition earlier in the campaign, so there is evidence they can be ruthless at Broadfield Stadium when the conditions suit.
This is a tricky one to call. On paper, a senior League Two side should handle a Premier League youth team at home, but the form book and recent cup shocks suggest Crawley are not entirely reliable, and Brentford U21 have shown they can find the net. The goal difference buffer gives Crawley a safety net, but Brentford need a win to guarantee their own progression, so expect the young Bees to come at Crawley with intent.
Danilo Orsi-Dadomo is the man to back here. He is Crawley’s main outlet and with Carvalho absent for Brentford, the defensive attention will not be pulled in as many directions. Orsi-Dadomo has the quality to punish a youthful back line, and home fixtures in this competition tend to suit the Red Devils’ forward play.
Back over 2.5 goals with some confidence. Brentford U21 have been shipping goals at a rate that should give any forward line hope, and their attacking play has also been lively when they are chasing the game. Add in Crawley’s need to put the FA Cup embarrassment behind them and there is every chance this opens up, particularly in the second half.
Over 9.5 corners looks appealing. Brentford will be getting forward in numbers trying to win the game outright, and Crawley are capable of building pressure through wide areas. The tactical shape of both sides encourages play down the flanks, which should generate a healthy corner count across 90 minutes.
A 2-1 win for Brentford U21 is the call here. Crawley will likely open the scoring and sit a little deeper once they have a lead, comfortable in the knowledge that a draw still takes them through. But Brentford are desperate for the win, and their attacking talent at youth level is genuine enough to turn the game around against a Crawley side that has shown defensive vulnerabilities when pushed.
| Market | Selection |
|---|---|
| Both Teams to Score | Yes |
| Over 2.5 Goals | Over |
| First Goalscorer | Danilo Orsi-Dadomo |
Orsi-Dadomo breaking the deadlock fits neatly alongside a game that has the ingredients to produce a lively open contest with goals at both ends.
Crawley have the home advantage and the experience edge, but their recent form is patchy enough to make this far from a formality. Brentford U21 have been leaky at the back but genuinely dangerous going forward, and with progression on the line, Saunders will send his side out to attack from the off.
The FA Cup horror show will be fresh in the minds of the Crawley faithful, and there is a real chance this young Brentford side makes it back to back cup shocks. The Red Devils should have enough to progress on goal difference regardless, but the actual result on the night could easily go in favour of the Bees. Prediction: Crawley Town 1-2 Brentford U21.
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