Everton vs Newcastle United Prediction, Betting Tips & Preview

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Everton

vs

Newcastle United

KickoffThursday 29 October 2026, 7:45pm

VenueHill Dickinson Stadium

CompetitionEFL Cup

Two Premier League sides, one cup tie, and a rematch coming just four days later. This is a fascinating fixture to try and call because the context cuts both ways. Everton need a confidence boost and a trophy run could be just the tonic, while Newcastle have the cup pedigree and a manager who clearly does not mess about in this competition. So who advances to the quarter-finals? Let us dig into it.

The added spice here is that these two will face each other again in the Premier League at St James’ Park less than a week later, which means both managers are making selection calls with one eye on Thursday and another on Sunday. That makes the teamsheet almost as interesting as the match itself.

Everton vs Newcastle United Match Details

This EFL Cup fourth round tie takes place at the Hill Dickinson Stadium on Merseyside, the final of six all-Premier League ties at this stage of the competition. It is a genuine cup tie with real stakes on both sides, and the fact that a Premier League meeting between the same clubs follows shortly after adds a layer of tactical intrigue that should make for compelling viewing.

Team News

David Moyes is navigating a few headaches heading into this one, and with a small squad to call upon, every absence stings a little more than it might elsewhere.

• Jarrad Branthwaite is out after picking up a concussion against Arsenal and did not travel to the Emirates.
• Jack Grealish is a doubt having missed the Arsenal defeat with illness.
• Michael Keane and Ainsley Maitland-Niles are pushing for recalls in defence as cover for the injury issues at the back.
• Hayden Hackney, Christian Norgaard and Carlos Alcaraz are all in contention to start in midfield.
• Tyler Dibling, who was outstanding in the third round, is pushing for a starting berth in attack.

For Newcastle, Mattias Jaissle has been clear that he is not taking this competition lightly, but he does have a couple of knocks to manage.

• Matias Fernandez-Pardo is doubtful with illness.
• Lewis Miley is a doubt after picking up a knock.
• Tino Livramento remains sidelined with a knee injury.
• Ewen Jaouen is also out with a thigh problem.
• Anthony Elanga and Jacob Ramsey are pushing for starts having recovered from injury spells.

Predicted Lineups

Moyes will shuffle his pack slightly but not tear it up entirely. With Branthwaite out, the back four shapes up around Maitland-Niles and Keane coming in. Dibling looks nailed on after his man of the match showing last time out in the cup, and the midfield trio of Hackney, Norgaard and Alcaraz gives Everton some steel and creativity in equal measure.

Jaissle has been consistent in naming strong sides throughout this cup run, and that is not changing now. Harvey Barnes and William Osula scored at Palace on Sunday and will likely keep their spots, while Wissa, Thiaw, Botman and Ramsey are all hoping to force themselves into the picture after returning to full fitness.

• Everton: Pickford; Maitland-Niles, O’Brien, Keane, Mykolenko; Hackney, Armstrong; Dibling, Alcaraz, George; Barry
• Newcastle: Hornicek; Dedic, Thiaw, Botman, Hall; Gonzalez, Ramsey; Elanga, Wissa, Barnes; Osula

Recent Form

Everton got the new season going nicely, eight matches unbeaten across all competitions had fans feeling optimistic about what Moyes could build this year. Then came the wall. Back to back 2-0 defeats against Chelsea and Arsenal in the Premier League have knocked the stuffing out of that momentum, and the Toffees now sit in the bottom half of the table. The defeat at the Emirates was Moyes’ 400th loss as a manager, and while that is a milestone you would rather not reach, it is the lack of goals that is most worrying right now. Only the three relegated sides in waiting have scored fewer than Everton’s eight Premier League goals this term, and a third consecutive match without scoring would be deeply concerning for a side that Moyes insists should not be near the drop zone.

Newcastle’s form has been patchier, and there was genuine pressure building on Jaissle following three defeats in four games. But the 2-0 win at Crystal Palace on Sunday was exactly the kind of result that steadies a ship. Barnes and Osula got the goals, and the Magpies moved up to eighth in the Premier League with a bit of breathing room above the bottom three. In the cup, Newcastle have won their two rounds against West Brom and Millwall and they are not in the habit of treating this competition as a chore. Since 2022, no side in England has won more EFL Cup ties than the Magpies. Eighteen victories in three seasons. That is a remarkable return.

The contrast in momentum and attacking output between these two sides is stark. Newcastle have scored in ten of their eleven fixtures across all competitions this season. Everton are struggling to find the net at all. That kind of gulf does not disappear just because the trophy changes.

Head-to-Head Record

The recent head to head record makes for complicated reading depending on which competition you focus on. In their last six meetings across all competitions, Newcastle have won just one, drawing two and losing three. That sounds like good news for Everton, but flip to the cup and it is a different picture entirely. The Magpies have won seven EFL Cup fourth round ties on the bounce, with their last exit at this stage coming all the way back in 2013-14 against Manchester City. Seven straight progressions at this exact point in the competition is serious pedigree.

Perhaps most relevant for this particular tie is what happened the last time these two met in the Premier League at Goodison Park and its successor. Newcastle put four past Everton without reply in a 4-1 win last November. Goals were not a problem for the Magpies on that occasion, and Everton’s defence did not exactly cover itself in glory either. That scoreline will be in the back of minds in both camps.

Key Stats

• Everton have scored just eight Premier League goals this season, fewer than every side outside the bottom three.
• Newcastle have won seven consecutive EFL Cup fourth round ties, the most recent exit at this stage came over a decade ago.
• Since 2022-23, no club has won more EFL Cup ties than Newcastle’s total of 18.

Everton vs Newcastle United Betting Tips

The underlying numbers tell a pretty clear story here. Everton are struggling badly for goals, Newcastle have genuine cup pedigree and a manager who names strong lineups regardless of the competition. The double header context might tempt you to think Jaissle will rest legs, but his track record in this cup run says otherwise. The value points firmly in the direction of the visitors, with a low-scoring Newcastle win looking like the most logical outcome on Merseyside.

First Goalscorer Prediction

William Osula scored at Crystal Palace on Sunday and is in the kind of form and confidence that gets a striker off the mark in cup ties. With Jaissle backing his attacking options and Everton’s backline already stretched by injury and suspension, Osula at a decent price looks an appealing punt to break the deadlock first.

Over and Under Goals Prediction

Under 2.5 goals is the call here. Everton are almost allergically opposed to scoring at the moment, and even with Newcastle’s attacking quality, cup ties at this stage between top-flight sides tend to be cagey affairs. A tight low-scoring contest feels far more likely than an open shoot out.

Correct Score Prediction

Newcastle to win 1-2 away from home. Everton might nick one, as they are not completely without attacking threat, but the Magpies have the quality and the cup experience to take this one and advance to the quarter-finals. A narrow two-goal-to-one away win fits the pattern of both sides’ recent form perfectly.

Cards Prediction

With the Premier League rematch coming four days later, this has all the ingredients for a feisty cup tie where tensions spill over. Both sides have players returning from time out and others trying to prove a point to their gaffer. Back over 3.5 cards in this one as the tackles fly in and the stakes stack up across two games in quick succession.

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) Prediction

This is a genuinely tricky call given Everton’s goal drought, but BTTS yes just about edges it. Everton have enough quality in the final third to punish the odd lapse, and Newcastle are not keeping clean sheets for fun either. A tight game where both sides get on the scoresheet feels more likely than a shutout at either end.

Corners Prediction

Newcastle love getting wide and putting balls into the box, and with Elanga and Barnes operating on the flanks, expect plenty of delivery from out wide. Everton will need to defend deep at times too, which invites pressure and corners. Back over 9.5 corners in this one as Newcastle’s wide play forces Everton back repeatedly throughout the night.

Bet Builder Tip

A narrow away win with both sides getting on the scoresheet but the game staying tight fits the form book, the head to head at this stage of the cup, and Newcastle’s clinical edge over an Everton side low on confidence in front of goal.

Final Match Prediction

Everton need this cup run. They are short on goals, short on confidence after two heavy defeats, and a deep run in the domestic cups would do a lot for morale and for Moyes’ standing with the supporters. But need and delivery are two very different things, and right now there is a significant gap between what Everton want to do and what they are actually able to produce going forward.

Newcastle are the form cup side in English football and Jaissle has made it very clear he wants this competition. His team travels to Merseyside with momentum, a settled back line and attacking players in good nick after Sunday’s win. Everton will make it competitive but the Magpies should have enough to sneak through. Newcastle 2-1 Everton.

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