Greece vs Serbia Prediction, Betting Tips & Preview

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Greece

vs

Serbia

KickoffMonday 16 November 2026, 7:45pm

VenueOlympic Stadium Athens

CompetitionUEFA Nations League

Greece go into this final group game with everything still to play for in Nations League Group A2. Ivan Jovanovic’s side sit second on eight points, level with Germany, and need to win while hoping Jurgen Klopp’s men slip up at home if they are to secure a quarter-final spot. That is a lot of variables to manage, but the one thing Greece can control is their own performance, and after the humiliation of a 7-0 thrashing by the Netherlands on Friday, you can be absolutely certain there will be a reaction here. Serbia arrive with nothing to play for in the standings, already condemned to relegation with five defeats from five. This could be a long night for Veljko Paunovic’s side.

Greece vs Serbia Match Details

The two sides meet at Panthessaliko Stadium in Volos for the final round of fixtures in UEFA Nations League League A Group 2. Greece are hosting Serbia for the second time in this group stage campaign, having already beaten them in the September opener. The atmosphere inside the ground should be electric given what is riding on the result for the home nation.

Team News

Greece have one notable absentee heading into this one, while Serbia arrive significantly weakened after the ugly scenes in their defeat to Germany on Friday.

• Dimitrios Kourbelis is out for Greece with an ankle injury
• Nectarios Triantis and Athanasios Androutsos are expected to fill the central midfield roles
• Serbia are without Vanja Dragojevic and Andrija Zivkovic, both suspended after red cards against Germany
• Stefan Dzodic is likely to come into the Serbia midfield to cover one of the absences

Predicted Lineups

Jovanovic will almost certainly stick with the attacking shape that has served Greece well for most of this campaign. With Christos Tzolis on one flank and the hugely exciting Konstantinos Karetsas on the other, there is genuine width and creativity in this side. Vangelis Pavlidis and Fotis Ioannidis lead the line, and that is a front four that any League A defence would find troubling, let alone one as shaky as Serbia’s.

For Serbia, Paunovic has to shuffle his deck after losing two players to suspension. Lazar Samardzic and Sergej Milinkovic-Savic are expected to join Dzodic in a midfield three, with Mihajlo Cvetkovic partnering the veteran Dusan Tadic in attack. On paper it looks decent enough in certain positions, but the suspended duo leave gaps that this Serbia squad does not have the depth to properly fill.

• Greece: Tzolakis; Rota, Mavropanos, Retsos, Tsimikas; Karetsas, Triantis, Androutsos, Tzolis; Pavlidis, Ioannidis
• Serbia: V Milinkovic-Savic; Nedeljkovic, Gudelj, Milenkovic, Babic, Sukacev; Samardzic, Dzodic, S Milinkovic-Savic; Cvetkovic, Tadic

Recent Form

Greece started this Nations League campaign in genuinely impressive fashion. They beat Serbia 2-1 in the opener, then went away to Germany and won 1-0 in Augsburg, which is the kind of result that turns heads. After that the momentum dipped, with draws at home to the Netherlands and Germany keeping them in contention but hinting that the early burst might not be fully sustained. Then Friday happened. Getting put to the sword 7-0 by the Netherlands is brutal by any measure, and it has left Jovanovic’s side needing a big result just to stay in the running for the quarter-finals.

That said, Greece are a decent side and that scoreline flattered Xavi’s team to some degree. When you dissect the trajectory of this campaign, Greece have been competitive more often than not. They have the players, they have the system, and they have genuine motivation going into Monday. A side that beat Germany away from home is capable of bouncing back sharply.

Serbia’s campaign has been an unmitigated disaster. Five games, five defeats, zero points. They have conceded eleven goals in those five matches at a rate of over two per game, and they go into this finale having been beaten 3-1 by Germany, a game where they went two goals down inside 14 minutes and ended up with nine men after two second-half dismissals. The confidence in that dressing room must be on the floor. Even in the games they kept reasonably tight, Serbia could not find a way to get results, and facing a Greece side playing at home with everything to prove is about as bad a situation as they could find themselves in.

Head-to-Head Record

These two already met earlier in this very group, with Greece winning 2-1 on September 24. That result gives Jovanovic’s men a psychological edge heading into the rematch. Greece were the better side across the pitch in that game and Serbia will not have forgotten it, particularly given how badly things have gone for them since.

Looking at the broader picture, home advantage matters in these Nations League group games, and Greece at Panthessaliko will be a tough venue for a Serbia side that simply has not been able to compete at this level throughout the campaign. The 2-1 scoreline from the first meeting is a useful reference point, suggesting this will not necessarily be a walkover, but the direction of travel is firmly in favour of the hosts.

Key Stats

• Serbia have conceded 11 goals in five Nations League games, an average of 2.2 per match
• Greece’s only win in their last four games was the September opener against this exact opponent
• Serbia scored in four of their five defeats, suggesting they create chances even when the results go against them

Greece vs Serbia Betting Tips

The angle here is pretty clear. Greece need this win and they are at home in front of a crowd that will be right behind them. Serbia are without two key players through suspension, their defence has been a sieve all tournament, and they have zero points to show from five attempts. The hosts should win this, and win it with goals. The only real question is whether Serbia nick one of their own.

First Goalscorer Prediction

Vangelis Pavlidis is the pick here. He leads the line for a Greece side that will be pressing forward from the first whistle, and he is up against a central defence that has shipped goals freely throughout this campaign. Pavlidis has the movement and the finishing quality to get on the scoresheet early in a game where Greece will be throwing bodies forward in search of the goal they desperately need.

Corners Prediction

Back over 9.5 corners in this one. Greece will be on the front foot throughout, working wide through Tzolis and Karetsas and getting crosses into the box. Serbia, when they do get forward, tend to play through central areas, but under sustained pressure they will likely be forced into a defensive shape that invites corners. A high corner count feels like a solid play in a game set up this way.

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) Prediction

Yes feels right here. Serbia have scored in four of their five defeats in this campaign, so even when they are being outplayed they tend to find the net at some point. Greece’s defence, while solid in patches, has not been impenetrable, and Tadic is the kind of player who can manufacture a moment from nothing. BTTS at yes makes plenty of sense in a fixture where Greece should score freely but Serbia have enough threat to nick one.

Cards Prediction

Expect a few bookings in this one. Serbia are playing with nothing to lose and after the red card chaos against Germany they will need to be disciplined, which is never easy when frustration sets in. Greece pressing high and playing at pace will draw fouls, and a Serbia side that has been rattled all tournament could get caught making cynical challenges when Greece cut through them. Over 3.5 cards looks a reasonable call.

Bet Builder Tip

A game with goals at both ends, a fired-up striker leading the line for Greece, and a frustrated Serbia side likely to pick up cards as the pressure mounts makes this a tidy combination that tells a coherent story about how this match should unfold.

Final Match Prediction

Greece win this. The 7-0 defeat to the Netherlands stings, but this is a completely different context against a completely different opponent. Serbia have been poor throughout, they arrive short-handed, their defence leaks goals, and they are facing a home crowd that needs a performance. Jovanovic’s side have enough quality across the pitch to control this game and punish a leaky back line.

Predicted Score: Greece 3-1 Serbia

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