Millwall vs Derby County Prediction, Betting Tips & Preview

Featured Offer

BetAhoy

Bet £10 Get a £10 Free Bet

Claim Free Bet →

Code ALLABOARD10 – Place qualifying bet within 7 days of registration (Min £10 at odds of EVS+). 2 x £5 free bets awarded once qualifying bet settles (18+). Full T&C’s Apply. #ad

Millwall

vs

Derby County

KickoffSaturday 31 October 2026, 3:00pm

VenueThe Den

CompetitionEnglish League Championship

Millwall come into this one with something to prove. Three games without a win, a defeat away at Portsmouth still stinging, and five points separating them from the playoff places. This is exactly the kind of fixture Alex Neil will have circled as a chance to stop the rot. Derby County, on the other hand, are in freefall. Eight league games without a win, sitting 23rd in the Championship table, and a treatment room that looks more like a hospital ward than a football club. On paper, this looks straightforward. In football, of course, nothing ever quite is.

That said, the gap between these two sides right now is significant. Millwall are underperforming relative to their own standards. Derby are simply struggling to function. A home fixture at The Den, where the Lions have posted some convincing victories already this season, sets up as a genuine opportunity for Millwall to remind everyone what they are capable of.

Millwall vs Derby County Match Details

This Championship clash takes place at The Den in Bermondsey, one of the more intimidating grounds in the second tier on a good day. Millwall will be hoping their home support gets behind them from the first whistle after a run of results that has left the fanbase frustrated. Derby make the trip to South East London as one of the division’s most out of form sides, and the atmosphere alone could prove a factor.

Team News

Neither manager is working with a full squad here, but it is Derby who face the more serious selection headache. The Rams are stretched alarmingly thin, particularly in defence and attack, and that could have a direct impact on how competitive they are able to be.

• Tairyk Arconte (Millwall) is sidelined with an ankle injury picked up after his summer move from Rodez
• Josh Coburn (Millwall) is nursing a muscular problem and is absent from the forward options
• Casper De Norre (Millwall) has been missing for eight Championship games with an injury and remains out, a real blow given how influential he is in the middle of the park
• Patrick Agyemang (Derby) is a major absentee for the visitors, removing their most dangerous attacking outlet
• Derby are also without defenders Charlie Taylor, Matt Clarke, Eiran Cashin and Sondre Langas, leaving John Eustace scrambling for bodies at the back

Predicted Lineups

Alex Neil looks set to line up in a familiar shape, with Lyndon Dykes leading the line as the focal point up top. The absence of De Norre in midfield remains a headache, but Millwall have enough quality to cover. Neghli and Cundle offer creativity in the advanced areas, and with Metcalfe and Mazou-Sacko sitting deeper, the Lions have a decent platform to build from.

For Derby, Eustace is essentially picking from whoever is fit and available. The defensive line of Ward, Nyambe, Robinson and Hedges is not what he would choose given a full squad, and with Agyemang missing, the burden falls on Brewster, Szmodics and the wider forwards to conjure something going forward. It is a big ask given the circumstances.

• Millwall: Crocombe; Crama, Taylor, Cooper, Sturge; Metcalfe, Mazou-Sacko; Neghli, Cundle, Lisbie; Dykes
• Derby County: Zetterstrom; Ward, Nyambe, Robinson, Hedges; Clark, Ozoh; Brewster, Szmodics; Salvensen, Morris

Recent Form

Millwall’s recent form is the kind that makes supporters nervous. One win from their last seven Championship outings, with three defeats and three draws making up the rest. The loss at Portsmouth was particularly painful, with Thomas Waddingham’s late strike rubbing salt in the wound after what sounds like a game Millwall had chances to win. Alex Neil will know the mood around The Den shifts quickly when results do not come, and a home game against a struggling side is precisely when you need to deliver.

To be fair to Millwall, their home record in emphatic victories tells a different story. Putting three past Norwich and four past Bolton earlier in the season shows the Lions are very much capable of turning it on in front of their own fans. The concern is that without De Norre pulling the strings and with Azeez now at Brighton, the creative burden has spread unevenly across the squad. Dykes’ four goals lead the way, but the Lions need more contributions from further back.

Derby’s form is simply alarming. Eight league games without a win, with five defeats in that run. The draw at Bramall Lane last weekend, rescued by a Patrick Bamford goal for Sheffield United, tells its own story. The Rams arrived at a ground that is hardly the most welcoming and left with a point, but with just one clean sheet in 13 competitive games this season and joint lowest goals scored in the league alongside Preston and Watford, the problems run through the entire team. Eustace needs a result desperately, but the fixture list has not been kind and neither have the injury gods.

Head-to-Head Record

Millwall and Derby have met plenty of times at this level over the years, and The Den has generally not been a happy hunting ground for the Rams. Millwall tend to set up compact and physical at home, making it difficult for visiting sides to play through them, and Derby’s current lack of forward firepower means they will struggle to hurt the Lions even if they do get possession in good areas.

Recent meetings between these clubs have tended to be tight affairs, often decided by a single goal, but given how dramatically different the circumstances are right now, there is reason to think this one could be more one-sided than the historical record might suggest.

Key Stats

• Derby have kept just one clean sheet in 13 competitive games this season, a damning number for a side already in the relegation zone
• Millwall have won two home games this season by a combined scoreline of 7-0, suggesting they can be devastating when everything clicks at The Den
• Derby are joint bottom scorers in the Championship with just 10 goals from 12 games, and they are missing their main striker for this trip

Millwall vs Derby County Betting Tips

This is a fixture that sets up very well for Millwall. They are at home, they are motivated after a run of poor results, and they are facing a Derby side that is threadbare defensively and toothless in attack without Agyemang. The angles worth exploring are around the Lions winning to nil, the goals market staying relatively low given Derby’s struggles to score, and Dykes as a first goalscorer given his current form as the Lions’ top striker.

First Goalscorer Prediction

Lyndon Dykes is the obvious call here. Four Championship goals already this season makes him Millwall’s standout threat in the final third, and against a Derby defensive line that is already missing four regular starters, the Scotland international should have chances to add to his tally. He is physical, he gets on the end of things, and he is clearly being given licence to lead the line as the main man. Good value for first goalscorer.

Over and Under Goals Prediction

Under 2.5 goals carries some appeal here. Derby have only scored 10 goals all season and are missing their main forward. Millwall have been productive at home but have also been grinding through a difficult patch. A controlled Millwall victory with limited attacking threat from the visitors makes a low-scoring game the more likely outcome. Under 2.5 is the call.

Correct Score Prediction

Millwall 2-0 Derby feels right. The Lions are capable of winning comfortably at The Den when the form is there, and Derby simply do not have the firepower to get on the scoresheet against a Millwall defence that will be well organised. A couple of goals for the home side and a clean sheet looks the most plausible outcome given everything pointing towards this game.

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) Prediction

No on BTTS. Derby have the worst attacking record in the division, they are missing Agyemang, and their best recent result was a draw where they required a Bamford goal to rescue a point rather than creating one themselves. Millwall at home, motivated and with a point to prove, should keep this one tight at the back. Back both teams not to score.

Cards Prediction

Over 3.5 cards is worth a look. Millwall are always a physical presence at The Den, and Derby’s players are likely to get frustrated as the game goes on if things start going against them. A combination of Millwall’s intensity and Derby’s desperation could lead to a feisty afternoon in SE16. The bookings should come.

Corners Prediction

Over 9.5 corners looks reasonable. Millwall will be pushing forward, especially if they get an early goal, and Derby’s back four is already undermanned. The Lions are likely to have a lot of the ball in advanced positions, forcing corners from their attacking play. Derby may also resort to longer balls as the game goes on, which tends to generate set pieces at both ends.

Bet Builder Tip

Dykes to open the scoring in a game where Millwall dominate territorially and keep Derby off the scoresheet makes for a tidy combination that reflects the overall shape of how this fixture looks likely to unfold.

Final Match Prediction

Millwall have too much for Derby right now. The Lions are not in the form of their lives, but they are at home, they are hungry for a win after a difficult few weeks, and they are facing a Rams side that is genuinely struggling to function as a unit. John Eustace is working with a heavily depleted squad, and the absence of Agyemang removes Derby’s best hope of nicking something.

Expect Millwall to control this from early on, get their noses in front through Dykes, and see the game out comfortably. A 2-0 home win feels like the most likely result, with Derby finding it very difficult to threaten at the other end. Three points back on the board for the Lions and a timely reminder of what they are capable of at The Den.

Featured Offer

BetAhoy

Bet £10 Get a £10 Free Bet

Claim Free Bet →

Code ALLABOARD10 – Place qualifying bet within 7 days of registration (Min £10 at odds of EVS+). 2 x £5 free bets awarded once qualifying bet settles (18+). Full T&C’s Apply. #ad