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West Bromwich Albion
SouthamptonTwo of the Championship’s most in-form sides going head to head in the top half of the table, with both carrying genuine title ambitions and unbeaten runs to protect. That is the kind of mid-week fixture that gets proper football people excited. West Brom versus Southampton is not just about bragging rights or a battle for fourth and fifth place. It is a genuine clash of styles, with the Baggies finding their attacking rhythm at exactly the right moment and Southampton quietly building something that looks increasingly difficult to stop.
The subplot here is a fascinating one too. Southampton are carrying a four-point deduction into this campaign and yet they are still breathing down the necks of the automatic promotion places. Take that penalty away and they are right in the mix at the top. West Brom meanwhile have shown real character after a wobble against their West Midlands rivals earlier in the season, and Saturday’s win at West Ham tells you everything about how much confidence is flowing through this squad right now.
The fixture takes place at The Hawthorns, West Brom’s home ground in the West Midlands, in what is a Championship league fixture. The Baggies have made their ground a tough place to visit this season, picking up 11 points from six home games, and Wednesday night under the lights at The Hawthorns has the feel of a genuine top of the table showdown.
West Brom have a few selection headaches to deal with, with James Morrison potentially forced into changes after the win at West Ham. Southampton’s squad depth will also be tested, though Tonda Eckert has options available if he wants to rotate.
Morrison looks set to set up in a shape that gives his side plenty of width and bodies in midfield to compete with Southampton’s quality through the middle. If Morgan misses out, Heggebo slots in and the front line retains its threat. The hosts’ predicted eleven: O’Leary; Pereira, Campbell, Mepham, Styles; Nzingoula, Diakite, Molumby, Price; Myhre, Heggebo.
Eckert has a decision to make about whether Larin is ready to be thrown back in from the start, but Dobbin has been doing enough to suggest he keeps his place through the middle. Ward-Prowse pulling the strings in central midfield is the kind of quality that can unlock any defence in this division. Southampton’s predicted eleven: Peretz; Bree, Stephens, Schlotterbeck, Manning; Ward-Prowse, Downes; Fellows, Azaz, Scienza; Dobbin.
West Brom’s season has had a natural ebb and flow to it. When they dropped back-to-back games to Wolves and Birmingham, there were genuine questions about whether the wheels were coming off. Instead, Morrison’s side have responded brilliantly, picking up 10 points from a possible 12 and putting together a run that includes a very impressive away day at West Ham. Beating the title favourites at the London Stadium is not something you can dismiss lightly, and it shows that this West Brom side has the belief and quality to compete with the very best in the Championship.
The one concern for Morrison is the clean sheet column, which has not been ticked in seven games now. Nine goals in the last four matches shows there is no shortage of attacking intent, and the comeback win over Blackburn at The Hawthorns when they overturned a two-goal deficit to win 3-2 showed real character. But they will need to be much tighter defensively against a Southampton attack that can be relentless on a good day.
Southampton have been doing their work quietly but effectively. Their defensive record is among the very best in the Championship with just 13 goals conceded in 13 games, and yet they are also capable of blowing teams away at the other end. The 4-1 demolition of QPR is the most recent example of that, and their home form at St Mary’s has been phenomenal with 20 goals scored in seven games. They were slow to get going on the road, going their first four away fixtures without a win, but back-to-back victories at Norwich and West Ham suggest they are now finding their form wherever the game is played.
West Brom and Southampton have a decent history of competitive matches between them, and games at The Hawthorns have rarely been dull affairs. The home ground advantage is a genuine factor here given how well West Brom have performed in front of their own supporters this season. Morrison’s side have been resolute and difficult to beat at The Hawthorns, making life uncomfortable for visiting teams through a combination of physical presence and pace on the counter.
Southampton have shown they can perform at any ground in the division though, and their recent away wins at Norwich and West Ham demonstrate they travel well when the mood is right. This one has the look of a game where the head-to-head history will feel secondary to current form and momentum, and both sides come into it with plenty of that.
This is a game that sets up beautifully for bettors who like goals markets. You have a West Brom side that cannot stop scoring but cannot keep a clean sheet, facing a Southampton outfit with genuine quality all over the pitch and the ability to put games to bed quickly. There is enough here to suggest the away side edge it, but West Brom at The Hawthorns will not lie down without a fight, which opens up a number of interesting angles.
Over 2.5 goals is the obvious starting point here and it barely needs justifying. West Brom have not kept a clean sheet in seven games and Southampton scored four at the weekend. The attacking quality on show in this fixture makes anything under three goals feel like a surprise rather than the expected outcome.
Lewis Dobbin is the pick here. He is the man leading the Southampton line and with the Saints expected to create chances on the road, Dobbin is well-placed to get on the scoresheet. His movement in the box and willingness to get in behind make him a real threat against a West Brom defence that has been leaking goals.
With two sides pushing hard for promotion places and the competitive edge a top-of-the-table clash brings, you would expect the referee to be busy enough. Both midfields are combative and physical, and Southampton’s press can draw fouls in dangerous areas. Over four cards in this one feels a reasonable call given the intensity these matches tend to generate.
Southampton like to dominate possession and work the ball wide, which generates corners in volume. West Brom are not shy about getting forward from set pieces either. With both sides attack-minded and likely to put plenty of crosses into the box, over nine corners in this game looks very gettable.
Yes. West Brom have scored in every game during their current unbeaten run and have been consistently dangerous at The Hawthorns. Southampton may have the division’s joint-best defensive record but West Brom’s attacking output is too consistent to ignore. Both teams finding the net feels near certain here.
A 2-3 Southampton win feels about right. West Brom will contribute to a lively game and their crowd will push them forward, but Southampton’s attacking depth and balance across the pitch gives them the edge. A five-goal thriller with the Saints nicking it late fits the narrative of this one perfectly.
| Market | Selection |
|---|---|
| Both Teams To Score | Yes |
| Over 2.5 Goals | Over 2.5 |
| First Goalscorer | Lewis Dobbin |
With goals almost inevitable in this fixture and Dobbin leading the line for the team expected to create more, these three selections complement each other perfectly.
West Brom will give this everything at The Hawthorns and their recent form deserves respect, but Southampton are a serious outfit carrying real momentum and they have shown they can go to any ground in this division and win. The away defensive record gives Eckert’s side a platform, and when they get the ball forward they have match-winners all over the pitch.
Give me Southampton to edge a cracking game 2-3, with West Brom making it uncomfortable right until the end but ultimately coming up short against a Saints side that looks like a genuine promotion force when everything clicks.
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