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Samsunspor
KonyasporEight straight league defeats. Fifteen goals conceded at home in just five matches. A new manager who has shipped eleven goals in his first three games in charge. Samsunspor are in serious trouble, and there is no dressing it up. When you are sitting seventeenth in the Turkish Super Lig table with four points from ten games, every fixture becomes a must not lose situation, let alone a must win one. The pressure inside Samsun Yeni 19 Mayis Stadium this weekend is going to be immense.
Konyaspor are hardly rolling into town full of confidence either though. They just got torn apart four nil by Galatasaray at home, they have scored only six league goals all season, the second worst total in the division, and they are picking up one point from every four away matches. Ilhan Palut has a team that is quietly struggling and doing it without much fanfare. When two sides this low on confidence and goals meet, you are rarely in for a thriller. But you are often in for something genuinely tense.
This Super Lig fixture takes place at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayis Stadium, with Samsunspor desperate for any kind of positive result to ease the growing anxiety around the club. With both sides planted in the bottom half of the table and separated by just four points, three places apart, this is exactly the kind of game that can define a season. Win it and you breathe a little easier. Lose it and the trap door starts to feel very real.
Nenad Bjelica has a few selection headaches to manage, though some relief is incoming on the injury front.
Konyaspor have their own absentees to contend with ahead of this trip north.
Bjelica is expected to go with Mohamed Bayo and Tanguy Coulibaly leading the line, with Logi Tomasson and Joe Mendes providing the width on either flank. Afonso Sousa returning to the squad adds a touch more quality in the attacking midfield area, which Samsunspor have badly needed. The Croatian gaffer needs his side to find some defensive steel quickly, having conceded eleven in three matches since taking over.
For Konyaspor, Ilhan Palut will likely set up with Chidozie Awaziem and Rayyan Baniya as the central defensive partnership, Enis Bardhi and Jean Luc Dompe providing the creativity behind Jackson Muleka up top. With Deniz Turuc suspended and the goalkeeper situation uncertain, Palut has some reshuffling to do.
Samsunspor’s current run is genuinely alarming. Eight consecutive league defeats is not just a bad patch, it is a full blown crisis, and the 5-2 thrashing by Istanbul Basaksehir in their most recent outing underlined just how fragile this squad is right now. Bjelica was brought in to stabilise things, but three games in and the numbers make for grim reading: eleven goals conceded, four scored. That is not a defence trying to find its shape, that is a defence that is completely broken.
At home it is even worse. Five league games at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayis Stadium this season, four defeats, one point, fifteen goals leaked. The crowd that was supposed to be an advantage has watched their team ship goals at a rate that belongs in a Sunday morning league. Something has to give, and Bjelica will be hoping the return of Sousa and the familiarity of a home game can produce at least a spark.
Konyaspor’s recent form reads like a rollercoaster but one of those small ones at a local fair. A 1-0 loss away to Amed SK, then a tidy 2-0 home win over Genclerbirligi, then getting walloped four nil by Galatasaray in Konya. There is no real consistency to latch onto. The win over Genclerbirligi showed they can keep a clean sheet and grind out a result, but then Galatasaray absolutely ran through them. Travelling sides have not been kind to their defensive record either, and with just one point from four away games, Palut’s men do not exactly love life on the road.
This is where Samsunspor can find a little comfort. They are unbeaten in their last three meetings with Konyaspor, picking up two wins and a draw across that run. Their record at this particular ground against today’s visitors has been decent, and the most recent head to head at this venue ended level. That draw is worth noting given how both sides are set up and what both need from this game.
History does not win football matches, but when you are as low on confidence as Samsunspor are right now, knowing you have a decent recent record against an opponent is not nothing. It gives the players something to cling to, and it gives the home fans a reason to believe rather than just turn up expecting more misery.
Two teams with genuine problems in front of goal, both desperate to avoid another defeat, and a head to head record that leans towards tight, low scoring affairs. The smart money here is not on fireworks. It is on recognising that neither side has the attacking quality to blow the other away, and that defensive nervousness on both ends of the pitch could cancel out whatever attacking intent they carry into this one.
A 1-1 draw feels the most likely outcome here. Both sides are capable of nicking a goal, but neither looks capable of building on it. The head to head precedent at this ground, combined with two of the division’s most toothless attacks going at each other, points firmly towards the points being shared.
With both sides likely to sit cautiously and neither boasting a particularly expansive attacking style, the corner count should stay fairly modest. Expect something in the range of eight to ten corners across the full ninety minutes, with neither side pushing forward in waves. Back under ten and a half corners for a bit of value here.
Jackson Muleka gets the nod here. He is Konyaspor’s main focal point and despite the team’s struggles for goals, he is the man Palut looks to first. Away trips to struggling sides with shaky back lines are often where target men earn their wages, and Muleka has the physical presence to cause Samsunspor’s uncertain defence real problems.
Under 2.5 goals is the call. Konyaspor have the second worst attack in the Super Lig, Samsunspor’s new manager has not yet found a way to get his side scoring freely, and both clubs are going to be cautious given what a defeat would mean for their relegation fears. Tight, nervy and low scoring is the prediction.
A relegation six pointer between two anxious sides with plenty riding on the result tends to bring out the yellow cards. Players will be clattering into challenges they do not quite make, arguing with the referee, and generally operating on the edge. Back over three cards in this one. The tension alone should take care of that.
Yes, but only just. Samsunspor have been conceding for fun so Konyaspor should find a way through, and Bayo or Coulibaly have enough about them to cause problems at the other end. Both teams have scored in enough recent matches to make BTTS Yes a reasonable punt, even if neither side is exactly firing on all cylinders right now.
| Market | Selection |
|---|---|
| Match Result | Draw |
| Under 2.5 Goals | Under |
| Both Teams To Score | Yes |
A draw with both teams getting on the scoresheet and the game finishing one all covers all three angles neatly and reflects exactly what the form, head to head and attacking limitations of both sides are pointing toward.
This is a game between two clubs fighting at the wrong end of the table, both carrying real attacking problems and both desperately needing to stop the rot. Samsunspor’s home form has been catastrophic, but Konyaspor are no great shakes on the road and their attacking output this season has been almost nonexistent. The head to head leans toward stalemates between these two at this ground, and nothing about either side’s current form suggests that changes today.
Prediction: Samsunspor 1-1 Konyaspor. A scrappy, tense affair where a point each might just suit both managers, even if neither set of fans will be particularly thrilled about it.
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