Senegal vs Sudan Prediction, Betting Tips & Preview

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Senegal

vs

Sudan

KickoffThursday 12 November 2026, 7:00pm

VenueStade Léopold Sédar Senghor

CompetitionAfrican Cup of Nations Qualifying

Senegal come into this one frustratingly difficult to read. Patrick Vieira’s side are unbeaten under their new gaffer and have only let in a single goal across three matches, yet they have scored just twice in that same stretch. That defensive solidity is genuinely encouraging, but up front there is a bluntness you would not expect from a squad of this calibre. Sudan, by contrast, have swung from a decent result against Ethiopia to a thumping 4-1 defeat in Maputo, and both of their goals in this qualifying campaign have come from the penalty spot. They have yet to show they can hurt anyone from open play.

So you have a compact, organised Senegal side that is building under a new manager but has not yet clicked in the final third, against a Sudan team that showed real vulnerability in Mozambique and have genuine question marks about their ability to create clear cut chances. The Lions of Teranga should be favourites, but given how things have gone for them lately, do not expect a cricket score.

Senegal vs Sudan Match Details

This fixture takes place at Stade Leopold Sedar Senghor in Dakar, the kind of cauldron that gives Senegal an enormous advantage on home soil. It is a Group J fixture in the 2027 Africa Cup of Nations qualifying campaign, and with Senegal currently sitting second behind Mozambique on goal difference, three points here are more than just routine. They need to start putting games to bed and improving that goal difference if they want to control their own destiny in the group.

Team News

Senegal have a few notable absences to navigate, with Patrick Vieira missing several of his more creative options in the wide areas in particular. Sudan come into the game without any reported injury or suspension concerns, which at least gives Kwesi Appiah a full hand to pick from.

• Mamadou Sarr is out after picking up a left calf injury and is expected to miss several weeks.
• Krepin Diatta was forced off in his club’s last Championship fixture and has been replaced in the squad by Sevilla defender Arouna Sangante.
• Habib Diarra, Ismaila Sarr and Abdallah Sima are all unavailable.
• Sadio Mane asked to be excused from the squad for personal reasons and will not feature.
• Ismail Jakobs has retired from international football, opening the door for El Hadji Malick Diouf at left back.
• Idrissa Gana Gueye has not been included in this squad.
• Sudan have no reported injuries or suspensions ahead of the trip to Dakar.

Predicted Lineups

Vieira has four first-time call-ups in this squad, which tells you the injury situation has forced his hand a little. His most likely back line keeps Kalidou Koulibaly as captain and partners him with Moussa Niakhate, which is a solid enough pairing at this level. Up front, with Mane, Diatta, Sarr and Sima all absent, the burden falls on Nicolas Jackson, Ibrahim Mbaye, Iliman Ndiaye and Boulaye Dia to provide the creativity and goals.

Appiah will likely stick with the core of Al Hilal and Al Merrikh players that form the spine of his side. Mohamed Eisa leads the line, and alongside Yasin Hamed, Sudan will be hoping to get goals from open play for the first time in this campaign. Whether they can manage that against a Senegal defence that has been tight under Vieira is the big question.

• Senegal: Diaw; Sy, Koulibaly, Niakhate, El Hadji Malick Diouf; Pape Gueye, Camara; Mbaye, Pape Matar Sarr, Ndiaye; Jackson
• Sudan: Mustafa; Barglan, Tabanja, Karshoum, Kuku; Taifour, Abdalla, Khedr; Aamir Abdallah, Muzmel, Eisa

Recent Form

Vieira’s tenure started with a 1-1 draw away to Mozambique in late September, a result that probably felt about right given the circumstances of a new manager settling in on the road. Four days later, Senegal won 1-0 in Bahir Dar against Ethiopia, with Ibrahim Mbaye netting inside the first quarter of an hour. Then came a friendly against Comoros in Marseille, which Senegal edged 1-0 through Iliman Ndiaye’s fifth-minute strike. Three games, three wins or draws, three goals, one conceded. Defensively they look solid. Going forward, though, the Lions are misfiring and Vieira will know that.

Sudan’s form has been a real rollercoaster. They opened the qualifying campaign in decent fashion, beating Ethiopia 1-0 in Juba through Mohamed Eisa’s late penalty, a result that briefly put them top of the group. But Mozambique absolutely dismantled them four days later, winning 4-1 in Maputo. Witi, Chamito twice and Guima got the goals before Yasin Hamed pulled one back from the spot late on. That 4-1 hammering exposed serious defensive frailties, and the fact that Sudan’s only two goals in this campaign have come from penalties tells you they are not exactly creating havoc from open play.

The momentum gap between these two sides heading into this game is clear enough. Senegal are unbeaten and defensively organised. Sudan are coming off a heavy defeat and have yet to show they can hurt anyone without the aid of a referee’s decision. That context matters.

Head-to-Head Record

Senegal have never lost to Sudan in eight attempts. Five wins and three draws is a commanding record, and the most recent meeting was barely ten months ago at the Africa Cup of Nations last 16 in Tangier. That ended 3-1 to Senegal, with Pape Gueye grabbing a brace before the break. Sudan actually went ahead in that one through Aamir Abdallah, who gave them a sixth-minute lead before Senegal replied three times to run out comfortable winners. It tells you Sudan can nick a goal against this side, but they cannot live with them for ninety minutes.

The historical record strongly favours Senegal, and there is no previous meeting where Sudan came away with all three points. At Stade Leopold Sedar Senghor, with the home crowd behind them and a new gaffer pushing for momentum, the Lions will be clear favourites to extend that unbeaten run against their opponents from the northeast of the continent.

Key Stats

• Senegal are unbeaten in all eight previous meetings with Sudan, winning five and drawing three.
• Both of Sudan’s goals in this qualifying campaign have come from the penalty spot. Zero from open play.
• Senegal have conceded just once in three matches under Patrick Vieira and have kept a clean sheet in two of those three games.
• Sudan conceded four goals in Maputo and three in January against Senegal, suggesting their defence is very much exploitable.

Senegal vs Sudan Betting Tips

The fundamentals here all point in one direction. Senegal are at home, unbeaten in eight against Sudan, defensively tight and playing for a crowd in Dakar. Sudan are coming off a 4-1 hammering, have not scored from open play yet in this campaign, and lost this exact fixture by two goals only a few months ago. The concern for Senegal punters is always that bluntness in front of goal, but even at a low-scoring rate, one or two Senegal goals should be enough to get the job done here.

Corners Prediction

Senegal should dominate possession at home and push Sudan deep for large portions of this game. With Vieira’s side likely to be probing repeatedly without always finding a way through, corner counts tend to rise in games where one team is camped in the attacking third. Expect a decent volume of corners, with Senegal racking up the majority on the right side of the market.

Cards Prediction

Sudan will need to defend resolutely and may well drop into a low block for spells. Games like this, where the away side is under pressure and chasing shadows against an organised home team, often produce a card or two for the visitors as frustration or desperation creeps in. A moderate cards count overall feels about right, with Sudan the more likely side to pick up bookings.

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) Prediction

This one is a no for me. Senegal have only conceded once in three games under Vieira, and that defensive structure looks solid with Koulibaly and Niakhate in the back line. Sudan have not scored from open play in this qualifying campaign at all, and their only route to a goal seems to be a penalty. The chances of Senegal giving away a spot kick are slim enough that BTTS looks like poor value here. Back no on BTTS.

First Goalscorer Prediction

Ibrahim Mbaye got the goal in Bahir Dar and combined well with Jackson in that game, and with so many of Senegal’s wide options missing through injury, he is likely to get a good amount of time in advanced positions. His willingness to arrive early in the box and his record of getting on the scoresheet already in this campaign make him a solid shout for first goalscorer at a reasonable price.

Bet Builder Tip

A Senegal win with a clean sheet feels very much on the cards given their defensive solidity and Sudan’s inability to score from open play, and Mbaye finding the net first ties nicely into the attacking role he has been filling under Vieira.

Final Match Prediction

Senegal should win this without too many alarms. The absence of Mane and several attacking players is a genuine frustration for Vieira, but the defensive unit has been excellent and Sudan simply do not carry enough of a threat from open play to trouble Koulibaly and Niakhate for ninety minutes. Home advantage, historical dominance and Sudan’s recent form all point clearly toward a Lions victory.

It may well be another one-goal game given how Senegal have been operating, but on the balance of everything, a narrow win with a clean sheet seems the most likely outcome. Prediction: Senegal 2-0 Sudan.

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