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Stoke City
Preston North EndStoke City have spent the better part of a decade watching the Championship pass them by, but this season feels different. Mark Robins has them genuinely pushing for a playoff place, and a home win this weekend would see them climb into the top eight. That is very much on the table, because their visitors are Preston North End, a side in serious trouble and still looking for answers under a new manager with no wins yet to show for his efforts.
The Potters were frustrated at home last weekend, held to a goalless draw by Bristol City in miserable storm conditions that made proper football almost impossible. They will want to put that right quickly. Preston, meanwhile, blew a late lead against West Brom, conceding in the final ten minutes to drop more points they simply cannot afford to lose. The gap between these two clubs right now is stark. Fifteen points and fifteen places in the table. This fixture sets up very nicely for the home side.
The game takes place at the bet365 Stadium in a Championship fixture that could not come at a better time for the hosts. Stoke have real momentum building under Robins and the chance to leapfrog into the playoff places is right there. For Preston, a trip to one of the division’s in-form home sides is about as tough as it gets when confidence is low and results have been dire.
Robins would have loved to name an unchanged side after a solid defensive display last weekend, but an early injury has forced his hand. Preston are also working through a thin squad with several key players unavailable.
Stoke look set to line up in their now familiar back three shape that has served Robins so well since the tactical switch. Hirst comes in up front to replace Cisse, which is a like for like change in terms of position even if it shifts the dynamic slightly. Galbraith keeps his place in midfield, which is the right call given his form.
Stoke City: Johansson; Wilmot, Lawal, Graham; Johnson, Soumare, Galbraith, Bombino; McGlynn, Hirst, Devenny
Alexander will likely give his side another chance to prove themselves with a similar starting lineup to the one that took the lead against West Brom. If Lang is fit enough to start, he gives Preston their best attacking option. Devine behind the strikers could be the key creative outlet if the Lilywhites are to cause any problems.
Preston North End: Iversen; Offiah, Storey, Hughes; Mills, Leroy, Potts, Vukcevic; Devine; Kenny, Lang
Stoke opened the season as badly as you could imagine, losing their first three matches against Swansea, Southampton and Wolves without a point to show. That sort of start can unsettle a club and a fanbase very quickly, but Robins steadied the ship and the response has been genuinely impressive. Twenty points from nine league games since then, with only a narrow 3-2 defeat to high flying Middlesbrough breaking an otherwise excellent run. The back three has given them a platform and the attacking players have responded. Wins over Watford, Sheffield United and Derby County are the kind of results that tell you this side means business.
Preston’s story is the opposite. Five points from twelve Championship games is relegation form, full stop. A managerial change was inevitable and Paul Heckingbottom paid the price early. Graham Alexander has returned to a club he knows deeply, having played over 370 league games for the Lilywhites during his career, but the early signs from his time in the dugout there are not encouraging. One draw and three defeats from his first four matches in charge. The players do not look like a group that has had a boost from the new manager bounce that so often follows a dismissal.
The defeat that stings most for Preston is last weekend. They were in a winning position with ten minutes left against West Brom, which would have ended a run of seven games without a victory. Jimmy-Jay Morgan had other ideas and the points were shared. That kind of result does real psychological damage to a fragile group.
Here is where it gets really interesting. Preston’s record at the bet365 Stadium over recent years is genuinely remarkable given where they are in the table right now. The Lilywhites have not lost in their last eight league visits to Stoke, conceding just one goal across that entire run. That is the kind of statistic that demands respect whatever the current form of both clubs suggests.
It is also worth noting that Preston have a decent record in fixtures played on Halloween specifically, losing only one of their previous eleven league games on the date. You can draw whatever conclusions you like from that particular quirk, but the away record at this ground is the more significant factor and it gives Preston some reason to believe they can make this difficult for the hosts.
The form book screams Stoke, the head to head screams caution. Preston’s away record at this ground is one of those stats that refuses to be ignored, even accounting for how poorly the Lilywhites have been performing this season. That said, Alexander’s side look short of goals and short of confidence, and Robins has his team playing with real belief. The angle here is a controlled Stoke win without too many goals flying in at the Preston end.
A 2-0 home win feels right. Stoke have the quality to break down a limited Preston side, especially with the pressure that comes from needing a win to push into the playoff places, but Preston’s defensive resilience on the road and their historic record at this ground suggest the visitors will not completely fall apart. Two goals for the hosts and a clean sheet is the call.
Under 2.5 goals looks the smarter play here. Preston have been difficult to break down on the road even in their struggles, and Stoke’s recent form has been built on defensive solidity rather than goal fests. The frustrating draw against Bristol City last weekend shows that goals are not guaranteed even when Stoke are at home and on top.
Over 9.5 corners makes sense in this one. Stoke with their width and the back three pushing play forward will generate a lot of set piece opportunities, and a Preston side defending deep for long periods will invite pressure from wide areas. Expect Robins’s men to pump balls into the box repeatedly as the game goes on.
No is the call here. Preston have struggled to score throughout this campaign and face a Stoke backline that has been much more solid since switching to three at the back. With the Lilywhites low on confidence and missing several midfield options due to injury, finding the net at the bet365 Stadium looks a big ask. Back Stoke to keep a clean sheet.
George Hirst is the pick. He comes into the side as a direct replacement for Cisse and will be keen to make his mark in a starting role. He led the line for Stoke last week after coming on and will carry that momentum into this one. With Stoke expected to dominate and create the better chances, the striker is well placed to open the scoring.
| Market | Selection |
|---|---|
| Match Result | Stoke City to Win |
| Both Teams To Score | No |
| Total Goals | Under 2.5 |
All three selections point to the same outcome: a tight, controlled Stoke victory where the hosts do enough without this turning into an open game, which fits the pattern of how both sides have been playing recently.
Stoke City 2-0 Preston North End. The home side have too much going for them right now to pass up. Robins has built genuine momentum, the tactical setup is working, and facing a Preston side without wins in almost two months is exactly the kind of fixture you want when you are pushing for a playoff spot.
The head to head record gives you pause and stops this being a certainty, but Preston’s problems run deep. No wins under the new manager, key players missing, and a squad that looks short of the quality needed to hurt a Stoke side now comfortable in their defensive shape. The Potters get the three points and move into the top eight heading into November.
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