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Hapoel Be'er Sheva
Dinamo ZagrebSeven goals in a 4-2 loss at home in the Croatian top flight is not exactly the form guide you want heading into your opening European group stage fixture. That is the baggage Dinamo Zagreb are carrying into this one after a bruising weekend, and while the Camels of Hapoel Be’er Sheva arrive on the back of a clean sheet win in Israel, the context of this fixture is fascinating. Two clubs that came agonisingly close to the Champions League, now meeting in the Europa League with very different momentum behind them.
Be’er Sheva’s summer story is genuinely remarkable. Israeli champions for the first time in eight years, they knocked out Vikingur Reykjavik and then pulled off a stunning 3-0 aggregate win over Red Star Belgrade in the Champions League qualifiers. Red Star Belgrade. They were one tie away from the big time, before Sabah Baku ended the dream in extra time. Dropping into the Europa League after that is a gut punch, but they are here, and this is their stage now.
This Europa League league phase opener takes place at the Superbet Arena in Be’er Sheva, with Hapoel hosting a Croatian side they have never beaten across all previous meetings. Dinamo Zagreb arrive as one of the more experienced clubs in the competition, making their fourth appearance in the main Europa League campaign across the last six seasons. For Be’er Sheva, it is only their fourth time in the competition at all, and they will be desperate to go further than that Round of 32 exit back in 2016-17.
Hapoel Be’er Sheva have a couple of significant problems to manage before a ball is kicked. Two key players are suspended after picking up second yellow cards during the Champions League qualifying tie against Sabah Baku, and the absence of their top scorer from last season adds another layer of concern for the home side.
Dinamo Zagreb are also without a few faces but their absentee list looks far more manageable in the grand scheme of things.
Ran Kozuch has a fair bit of reshuffling to do given the suspensions. Ugarriza gets the nod up top with Biton sidelined, and the midfield will need to work hard without Peretz pulling strings. Expect a relatively compact setup from the hosts, aware they need to be solid at the back against a side with plenty of quality going forward.
Hapoel Be’er Sheva predicted lineup: Marciano; Mizrahi, Miguel Vitor, Nachmias, Amador; Yehoshua, Kanaan, Hazut; East, Ugarriza, Abu Rumi
Mario Kovacevic will likely go with his trusted setup and let Dion Beljo do what Dion Beljo does. The 24-year-old has been absolutely electric so far this season and will be the focal point of everything Zagreb do going forward. Misic as the midfield anchor gives them a nice platform to build from.
Dinamo Zagreb predicted lineup: Kotarski; Galesic, Dominguez, McKenna, Perez Vinlof; Misic; Lisica, Stojkovic, Zajc, Ivanusec; Beljo
Hapoel Be’er Sheva’s domestic form this season has been underwhelming for the Israeli champions. Two wins from four league matches is not the kind of return you expect from a side that romped to the title last year. They did put in a solid performance to beat Hapoel Petah Tikva 2-0 in their most recent outing, and that clean sheet will give Kozuch something to build on, but the inconsistency in the early part of the season is a concern. Going toe to toe in Europe requires a level of concentration and quality that you need to be producing week in week out, and Be’er Sheva are not quite there yet domestically.
Dinamo Zagreb looked shaky at the weekend, and that 4-2 loss to Osijek will have set off some alarm bells. That said, you cannot ignore what they have done across the broader picture this season. Losing just one of their first six league matches before this result, sitting three points off the top with a game in hand, the Croatian champions look like a side who have enough quality to absorb a bad result and move on. Their ability to bounce back from setbacks is a big part of what makes them tough to beat over the course of a campaign.
The Champions League qualifying exit against Viking, losing 3-1 away after drawing at home, will have frustrated the Zagreb faithful, but the experience of that run and of previous Europa League campaigns means this group of players knows what it takes at this level. Be’er Sheva are still building that understanding.
The historical record here is extremely relevant. Dinamo Zagreb have never lost to an Israeli club in European competition across four meetings, and one of those previous encounters involved these exact two sides. Back in the 2018-19 Champions League qualifiers, Zagreb hosted Be’er Sheva and put five past them without reply. Five nil. That is the kind of result that stays with a club for a long time.
More broadly, Zagreb’s record against Israeli opposition across their European history is perfect. Be’er Sheva have not managed to find a way past them in any of those meetings, and until the Camels show they can change that pattern, it is hard to argue against the Croatians going into this one with a significant psychological edge.
This is a tricky one to assess because Be’er Sheva’s home record in Europe this season is genuinely impressive, and they will have crowd and occasion on their side. But the absences are crippling, Zagreb have more European pedigree, and Beljo is a nightmare matchup for any defence right now. The value points towards the visitors here, and the goals markets look interesting given the attacking quality Zagreb carry.
With Beljo in the kind of form he is in and Be’er Sheva missing key defensive cover through suspension, there is enough reason to fancy goals in this one. Zagreb have the creativity and movement to unlock defences at this level, and Be’er Sheva will not sit entirely deep given they are playing at home in a big European fixture. Over 2.5 goals looks a reasonable call.
Be’er Sheva have shown they can find the net in European football this season, and even without Biton they have enough quality in attacking areas to cause problems. Zagreb are not without defensive vulnerabilities either given what happened against Osijek. BTTS yes is worth considering, though the hosts’ depleted lineup does introduce some doubt about their ability to convert their chances.
Dion Beljo is the standout pick and it is not particularly close. Seven goals in five league appearances this season, leading scorer from last campaign with 31, and now stepping into a European stage against a defence that will be without two of its regular options. The Croatian striker has the instincts, the movement and the confidence of someone who cannot stop scoring right now. Back him to open the scoring.
Europa League openers can carry a real edge to them, and when you have a passionate home crowd watching their side face a much bigger European name, the tackles tend to fly in. Be’er Sheva’s players will be wound up tight given the magnitude of the occasion, and Zagreb will not be shy about winning the ball back. Over 3.5 cards across the 90 minutes looks a fair punt here.
| Market | Selection |
|---|---|
| Match Result | Dinamo Zagreb to Win |
| First Goalscorer | Dion Beljo |
| Over/Under Goals | Over 2.5 Goals |
Beljo opening the scoring fits perfectly with Zagreb taking the win, and a multi-goal game is very much on the cards given the attacking quality the Croatians bring and the defensive disruption Be’er Sheva are dealing with through suspension.
Hapoel Be’er Sheva deserve enormous credit for what they have achieved this year, and their home European record this season shows they are no pushovers on their own patch. But missing Biton and losing Peretz and Diop to suspension in the same game creates a perfect storm of problems for the hosts on a night when they need everything firing.
Dinamo Zagreb have the squad depth, the European knowhow and arguably the most dangerous striker in this competition right now. They will not be too disheartened about the weekend result once the focus shifts to this one, and their historic record against Israeli clubs and against Be’er Sheva specifically tells its own story. Zagreb to win 2-1, with Beljo getting on the scoresheet and Be’er Sheva nicking a late consolation to keep the scoreline respectable.