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Istanbul Basaksehir
GenclerbirligiFive goals without reply. Against a newly promoted side. At home. That is the sort of result that does not just dent confidence, it shatters it. Istanbul Basaksehir were absolutely dismantled last weekend and now face the uncomfortable task of putting things right in front of their own supporters. The pressure is very much on Nuri Sahin to get a response.
What makes the timing of this fixture interesting is that Genclerbirligi are not exactly rolling into town full of swagger either. Two defeats on the bounce, throwing away a lead in the dying minutes last Sunday, and a dreadful away record stretching back years. Something has to give, and this one feels like it could be a pivotal moment for both clubs this early in the season.
This Super Lig round six fixture takes place at the Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium in Istanbul. The ground has been something of a fortress for the home side over recent months and they will be desperate to use that familiarity to their advantage after a torrid run of away days and poor results.
Basaksehir are carrying some notable absentees and Sahin will need to shuffle his pack again. Genclerbirligi also have injury concerns of their own heading into this one.
For Basaksehir, with Sengezer still out, Dilmen starts between the sticks and the back four of Omer Ali Sahiner, Emin Bayram, Jerome Opoku and Christopher Operi looks set to stay together. The bigger question is whether Sahin makes changes further forward after that humbling against Amed. Eldor Shomurodov has four goals already this season and there is no reason to drop him, with Andreas Skov Olsen and Abbosbek Fayzullaev completing the front three.
Genclerbirligi are expected to line up in a structured shape under Metin Diyadin with Egribayat in goal and a back four of Pereira, Goutas, Thalisson and Dursun. Diabate, who scored last week, is likely to feature again, with the midfield and attacking positions filled by Traore, Ulgun, Tongya, Gouveia and Mendes.
Basaksehir started the season with a comfortable 2-0 win over Kocaelispor in August and it looked like the kind of platform to build from. What followed was anything but. Four games without a win, one draw, three defeats, and 11 goals conceded in that stretch alone. Only bottom side Goztepe have shipped more in the league this season. The 5-0 horror show last Sunday against Amed Sportif Faaliyetler was the low point, with Gift Orban bagging a second half hat trick after an own goal from Bayram opened the scoring. That is not a result you brush off overnight.
Genclerbirligi had genuine momentum through the opening weeks. Back to back wins against Fenerbahce and Goztepe had supporters daring to dream about what this season could bring. But Trabzonspor put a dent in that, and then Kasimpasa rubbed salt in the wound last weekend. Genclerbirligi led through an Ousmane Diabate goal early on, only to be pegged back in the 79th minute and then beaten by a 94th minute Guven Yalcin strike. Throwing away a lead that late is a gut punch and it says something about where their defensive concentration levels are right now.
Both sides are in that uncomfortable early season territory where the table is still forming but the alarm bells are already ringing. Basaksehir have the superior individual quality overall, but that defensive record is genuinely worrying. Genclerbirligi showed they can score goals, but their inability to hold a result is a serious concern.
The head to head picture here is quite telling when it comes to the away side. Genclerbirligi have not won at the Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium in over a decade. Their last victory there came back in October 2012, and since then they have visited seven times in the Super Lig, losing six and drawing one. That is a remarkable run of futility at this particular ground.
When you factor in that Basaksehir are unbeaten in eight of their last nine home Super Lig fixtures, winning six of those, you start to see why the home side have to be considered favourites here despite their current wobble. Home form is the one area where Basaksehir have remained genuinely hard to beat, and Genclerbirligi have a long history of struggling to make any impression at this venue.
This fixture sets up well for a home win, even if Basaksehir are not the polished unit they should be. The defensive issues on both sides suggest goals are likely, and there are several markets worth targeting here.
Eldor Shomurodov is the standout pick here. Four goals in five league outings, leading the line for a team that desperately needs a big performance, playing at home against a side that has been leaking goals. He is in the kind of form where backing him to open the scoring at a reasonable price makes plenty of sense.
Back over 2.5 goals without hesitation. Basaksehir have been shipping goals for fun and Genclerbirligi showed against Kasimpasa that they can find the net. With two attacking teams who both carry defensive vulnerabilities, this has the makings of a fairly open game with goals at both ends.
Yes to both teams scoring. Genclerbirligi have the attacking quality to threaten, as they proved against Fenerbahce and Kasimpasa, and Basaksehir’s back four has been all over the place. Even with home advantage, keeping a clean sheet looks a tough ask for Sahin’s side right now.
With Basaksehir under pressure at home and Genclerbirligi fighting for a result on a ground where they historically struggle, expect some needle in the midfield battles. Over 3.5 cards looks a sensible play. Both sides have plenty riding on this fixture and the frustration factor tends to push these sorts of games towards a booking or two.
| Market | Selection |
|---|---|
| First Goalscorer | Eldor Shomurodov |
| Both Teams To Score | Yes |
| Over 2.5 Goals | Over |
Shomurodov striking first in a game that sees goals at both ends is a natural fit given the defensive frailties on show from both sides this season.
Basaksehir cannot carry on like this at the back, but home advantage and the visit of a Genclerbirligi side with a dreadful record at this ground feels like the moment for a corrective result. Shomurodov is in fine nick, the front three have enough to cause problems, and Genclerbirligi have been dropping points in matches they looked set to take something from.
Genclerbirligi will likely nick a goal given Basaksehir’s continued defensive fragility, but the hosts should have too much overall. We are calling this one for Istanbul Basaksehir, with a 3-1 scoreline the prediction.