The Asian swing gets underway this week with the Chengdu Open, an ATP 250 event played on outdoor hard courts at the Sichuan International Tennis Center. Now in its eighth edition, it is a tournament that always draws in some interesting storylines and gives us a first look at how players are shaping up heading into the rest of the Asian hardcourt season. Here are my picks for day one.
These two have not met at ATP level before, but Kotov actually has a result over Mochizuki already this year at Challenger level, beating him in straight sets. That tells you something about where both men are right now. Kotov has had a tough couple of seasons after a wrist injury knocked him well down the rankings, but he has been quietly putting in the work on the Challenger circuit in 2026 and his game looks sharper for it.
Mochizuki sits above Kotov in the rankings at the moment, but rankings can be a lagging indicator and form is what matters here. Kotov is playing with real confidence and already has the psychological edge from their previous encounter. He is the right pick to come through this qualifying match and reach the main draw.
Kopriva has genuinely had the best season of his career in 2026 and deserves credit for that even if hard courts have not historically been his strongest surface. He arrives in Chengdu with a decent amount of momentum and will be looking to make a real run at this level rather than just make up the numbers.
His opponent is 17 year old wildcard Jia Hu, who is making his ATP main draw debut here on home soil. The crowd will absolutely love seeing a young Chinese talent given a shot on this stage and it is a great opportunity for Hu to get a feel for what top level professional tennis demands. However, Kopriva is vastly more experienced and that gulf should show. This is a steep learning curve for the teenager and Kopriva should handle it comfortably.
Baez started 2026 in tremendous form on hard courts, playing some of the best tennis of his career on that surface, but things went a bit flat for him during the North American hardcourt swing and he heads to Chengdu needing to rediscover that early season sharpness. He already leads Brooksby two matches to nil this season, and his grinding baseline game has proven effective against the American on both occasions.
Brooksby is a fascinating player to watch when everything is clicking. His serve can be a genuine weapon and when he is timing the ball well from the back of the court he creates real problems. The question is whether he can sustain that level for long enough against an opponent who loves nothing more than extending rallies and wearing you down mentally and physically. Baez will try to do exactly that again here.
That said, the prediction here actually leans towards Brooksby to finally turn the tables. If he comes out serving well and takes the pace on early rather than letting Baez dictate, he has the tools to flip this head to head. It should be tight but Brooksby gets over the line.
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