Spain vs Croatia Prediction, Betting Tips & Preview

Featured Offer

bet365

Bet £10 Get £30 in Free Bets

Claim Offer →

Min deposit requirement. Free Bets are paid as Bet Credits and are available for use upon settlement of qualifying bets. Min odds, bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. Registration required. Time limits and T&Cs apply. GambleAware.org #ad

Spain

vs

Croatia

KickoffTuesday 29 September 2026, 7:45pm

VenueEstadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán

CompetitionUEFA Nations League

Spain come into this one as the best team on the planet, and they are not shy about showing it. World Cup winners, European champions, and still grinding out results when things get complicated on the road. That comeback at Wembley last weekend was the kind of performance that tells you everything about this group. Two goals down, Kane blazing a penalty against the crossbar, and somehow La Roja still found a way to win. That is not luck. That is mentality, and it is the sort of thing that makes Spain genuinely frightening right now.

Croatia, meanwhile, are in something of a transitional moment. Zlatko Dalic is gone after their Round of 32 exit at the World Cup this summer, and Slaven Bilic has returned for a second stint at the helm. It is a curious appointment, and Tuesday night gives us an early look at how his ideas are shaping up. A winning start in Prague was a decent opening statement, but coming to Seville to face the world champions is an entirely different challenge. The historical record in this fixture does Croatia no favours at all.

Spain vs Croatia Match Details

This Nations League Group A3 fixture takes place at the Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan in Seville, and it doubles as Spain’s first competitive home match since lifting the World Cup trophy. The atmosphere is going to be something special, with the Spanish supporters desperate to celebrate their golden generation on home soil. Croatia will need to be at their absolute best just to stay in the game.

Team News

Spain have a couple of notable absences to navigate, though the quality in their squad means De la Fuente has plenty of options to work with. Croatia have also had a few withdrawals, with Bilic forced into late adjustments before the squad even got going this week.

• Joan Garcia (goalkeeper, Barcelona) withdrew before the England game with injury and misses out again
• Pedro Porro (Tottenham) also pulled out before matchday one and remains unavailable
• Eric Garcia came off before kick off against England with an injury problem and has left the squad entirely, with Robin Le Normand called up as cover
• Alex Baena and Mikel Oyarzabal both scored as substitutes against England and are pushing to start here
• Pedri produced a lively cameo at Wembley and could come into the starting eleven if De la Fuente fancies a midfield refresh
• For Croatia, Josip Juranovic and Martin Erlic both withdrew from the original squad through injury
• Lovro Majer, Marin Pongracic and Kristijan Jakic were drafted in as replacements
• Marco Pasalic netted the winner as a sub in Prague and will be hopeful of a starting berth
• Ante Budimir of Osasuna could lead the line if Bilic opts to shuffle his attacking options

Predicted Lineups

De la Fuente has a pleasant selection headache on his hands given the form of his substitutes last weekend. Baena and Oyarzabal effectively won the game off the bench, so it would be hard to leave either of them out in front of their own supporters. Pedri looked sharp when he came on too, and the Wembley cameo may well have done enough to earn him a starting spot in midfield alongside Rodri.

For Croatia, Bilic has a decision to make around his forward line. Marco Pasalic was the match winner in Prague from the bench, which makes him almost impossible to ignore, while Budimir offers a physical option through the middle that could be useful against Spain’s back line. Modric, remarkably still going at 41, will anchor the midfield alongside Kovacic.

• Spain: Simon; Pubill, Cubarsi, Laporte, Cucurella; Rodri, Pedri; Yamal, Olmo, Baena; Oyarzabal
• Croatia: Livakovic; Stanisic, Vuskovic, Gvardiol, Perisic; Modric, Kovacic; L Sucic, P Sucic, Mario Pasalic; Budimir

Recent Form

Spain’s unbeaten run in regulation time stretches back to March 2024, when they lost a friendly against Colombia. Their last competitive defeat was even further back, a loss to Scotland in March 2023. Everything since then has either been won or drawn, including back to back major tournament titles and an opening Nations League win at Wembley that few sides would have managed after going two goals down to England. The manner of the comeback matters too. Lamine Yamal put them ahead inside two minutes, they fell behind, and they still found a way through. Luis de la Fuente knows exactly how to manage these moments.

Croatia got the job done in Prague, but it was far from comfortable. Modric broke the deadlock early in the second half, Karabec levelled almost immediately, and it took Marco Pasalic coming off the bench to nick all three points. There was grit there, which Bilic will appreciate, but they were not dominant. Against a team of Spain’s quality in a hostile atmosphere, they will need to be much more organised and clinical if they are going to take anything from this game.

The contrast in momentum here is stark. Spain are playing with total freedom and confidence. They have the world’s best players at their disposal, they are back on home soil for the first time since the World Cup triumph, and the crowd will be behind them from the first whistle. Croatia scrapped through in the Czech Republic. These are very different starting points.

Head-to-Head Record

Spain have an excellent record against Croatia, winning seven of their 10 official meetings. The recent trend is even more telling, with La Roja winning each of their last three encounters. Croatia’s most recent win in this fixture came back in November 2018, a 3-2 home victory in the Nations League, and before that you have to go all the way back to a 2-0 friendly win on Spanish soil in March 1994 to find a Croatia win in this country. That is a very long time without a positive result away from home against these opponents.

Spain’s fourth win in their last six overall came last weekend against England, and the pattern of these head to heads suggests Croatia will be in for another tough night. The Nations League format means every point matters, but history is firmly stacked against the visitors pulling off something surprising in Seville.

Key Stats

• Spain have not lost a competitive game since March 2023 and have not lost in regulation time since March 2024
• Croatia have not beaten Spain since November 2018 and have never won a competitive game on Spanish soil
• Lamine Yamal has eight international goals and scored inside two minutes against England, showing the kind of early aggression Spain bring to every fixture

Spain vs Croatia Betting Tips

This is about as good a home fixture as you will see in international football. Spain have every advantage going: world class squad, Seville crowd, brilliant recent form, and a head to head record that points firmly in their direction. Croatia have spirit and a couple of quality individuals, but they are going to need everything to go right to keep this competitive.

Over and Under Goals Prediction

Spain have the firepower to rack up goals at home, and Croatia showed against the Czech Republic that they can create chances going forward too. The Wembley game produced five goals between these two recently beaten sides, and there is no reason to expect a cautious tactical affair here. Over 2.5 goals looks like the right call.

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) Prediction

Croatia do carry a genuine threat going forward, particularly through Modric, Kovacic, and the Sucic brothers in midfield. They found the net in Prague and will not simply sit back and absorb pressure all night. Spain’s back line has not always been watertight, and with Croatia needing a result to stay in the group picture, expect them to push bodies forward. Both teams to score gets the nod.

Corners Prediction

Spain dominate possession in virtually every game they play and will constantly be probing Croatia’s shape wide and through the middle. When teams set up deep against La Roja, corners tend to pile up as Spain recycle the ball around the box. Add in Croatia’s need to press forward as the game progresses, and this should be a high volume corner contest. Over 9.5 corners looks very reasonable.

Cards Prediction

Croatia will need to be physical and disciplined to stay in this, which is a combination that does not always hold together under pressure. When sides chase games against Spain they tend to concede set pieces and free kicks as frustration creeps in. Expect a handful of bookings, particularly in the second half if Spain pull away. Over 3.5 cards is worth considering, especially if Croatia go chasing the game.

Bet Builder Tip

Spain winning in a game where both sides score fits perfectly with the pattern of recent meetings and the attacking intent both teams showed in their opening fixtures, while the high corners line reflects just how much Spain will control territory at the Sanchez Pizjuan.

Final Match Prediction

Spain to win this comfortably, but Croatia will nick one before the end. The world champions are a class apart right now and the crowd in Seville will only add to that, but Croatia have enough quality to cause a moment or two. This feels like a 3-1 or a 2-1 in Spain’s favour, with La Roja controlling the game for long stretches.

The spine of this Croatia side, Modric, Kovacic, Gvardiol, is experienced enough to stay in the fight for a while. But Spain’s attack is simply too dynamic, too varied, and too in form to be stopped for the full ninety minutes. Back Spain to win and back both teams to get on the scoresheet. It is shaping up to be a brilliant night at the Sanchez Pizjuan.

Featured Offer

bet365

Bet £10 Get £30 in Free Bets

Claim Offer →

Min deposit requirement. Free Bets are paid as Bet Credits and are available for use upon settlement of qualifying bets. Min odds, bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. Registration required. Time limits and T&Cs apply. GambleAware.org #ad