Japan vs Venezuela Prediction, Betting Tips & Preview

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Japan

vs

Venezuela

KickoffMonday 28 September 2026, 11:25am

VenueEdion Peace Wing Hiroshima

CompetitionInternational Friendlies

Japan are stepping into a new era. The 2026 World Cup ended in the round of 32 against Brazil, and while that stung, Hajime Moriyasu is already moving forward. This Kirin Challenge Cup fixture at Edion Peace Wing Hiroshima is about building something, about widening the pool and figuring out who earns a seat on the plane to next January’s AFC Asian Cup. After a confident 3-1 win over Uruguay just days ago, the Samurai Blue are in good shape and good spirits heading into this one.

Venezuela, meanwhile, are on an Asian tour that takes in South Korea and Jordan after this, and Oswaldo Vizcarrondo is using the trip in the same way Moriyasu is using it from the other side. La Vinotinto have never reached a World Cup, and facing a Japan side that just beat Uruguay is the kind of test that tells you exactly where your squad is. The question is whether they are ready to rise to it.

Japan vs Venezuela Match Details

This friendly is part of the Kirin Challenge Cup 2026 and takes place at Edion Peace Wing Hiroshima. It is the fifth all-time meeting between these two nations and the first since Japan’s World Cup exit. For Moriyasu, this is an opportunity to run the rule over a larger group ahead of the Asian Cup, with several uncapped players included in a 31-man squad. For Vizcarrondo, this is the opening match of a three-game Asian tour, and getting minutes into legs and patterns into a developing squad is the priority.

Team News

Japan are without one senior figure and potentially rotating in goal, while Venezuela have a notable fitness concern in midfield and are again without some of their most recognisable names.

• Takehiro Tomiyasu is ruled out of both Kirin Challenge Cup fixtures with a calf injury picked up for Crystal Palace. He will also miss October’s Kirin Cup matches.
• Zion Suzuki missed the Uruguay win with a rib injury but returned to full training on Friday and is expected to reclaim the goalkeeper spot from Tomoki Hayakawa.
• Takefusa Kubo, Ao Tanaka and Junya Ito are all available, giving Moriyasu plenty of quality in the final third.
• Uncapped players Kaina Tanimura, Shuto Nakano and Shunsuke Saito have been handed their first senior call-ups and could feature.
• Venezuela midfielder Daniel Pereira of CF Montreal is in the 34-man squad but is a doubt to start due to a fitness concern.
• West Ham winger Keiber Lamadrid was omitted from the squad entirely with injury when Vizcarrondo announced his selections on September 15.
• Salomon Rondon, Yeferson Soteldo and Jefferson Savarino are again absent by design as Vizcarrondo continues his policy of blooding younger options.

Predicted Lineups

Moriyasu looks set to restore Zion Suzuki in goal after his rib issue cleared up over the training week. The back line will need reshuffling without Tomiyasu, with Seko likely to come in. The midfield and attack should look recognisable, with Kamada and Kubo given freedom to link up behind Ayase Ueda through the middle.

Japan expected XI: Suzuki; Itakura, H. Ito, Seko; J. Ito, Tanaka, Kaishu Sano, Doan; Kamada, Kubo; Ueda

Venezuela will lean on Yangel Herrera to control the midfield and Telasco Segovia to provide creativity and movement in the final third. With Rondon, Soteldo and Savarino all absent, Jesus Ramirez carries the attacking burden up front. Vizcarrondo is likely to go with a solid defensive structure and ask his side to hurt Japan on the break.

Venezuela expected XI: Varela; Ferraresi, Balbo, Quintero, Sanchez; Libra, Herrera; Mendoza, Segovia, Martinez; Ramirez

Recent Form

Japan come into this on the back of a performance that should give Moriyasu genuine encouragement. The 3-1 win over Uruguay a few days ago had a bit of everything: an early goal from Kuryu Matsuki, a moment of adversity when Uruguay levelled just before half time, and then two late goals in stoppage time from Kento Shiogai and Ayase Ueda to seal it. Ueda’s finish from over 35 yards was the kind of moment that catches the eye on a highlights reel, but it was the collective response after conceding that showed the character in this squad.

Zoom out slightly and Japan have lost just once in their last five matches, that being the Brazil defeat at the World Cup. Either side of that, they beat Tunisia 4-0, drew with the Netherlands and Sweden, and now edged past Uruguay. Eleven goals scored and six conceded across that run tells you this is a side capable of scoring freely but not completely watertight at the back. For a friendly with plenty of squad rotation on the agenda, that balance feels about right.

Venezuela’s situation is very different. They have not played since a 2-0 win away to Iraq in June, which means a three-month gap before stepping out in Hiroshima. Before that Iraq win, they drew with Uzbekistan on penalties and lost 2-1 to Turkiye. There is some inconsistency there, and the layoff adds an extra layer of uncertainty. Vizcarrondo has a group that is still finding its identity, and while the tour as a whole is about development, Japan on this form represent a stiff opening examination.

Head-to-Head Record

These two sides have met four times before this fixture, and the record is genuinely difficult to draw clean conclusions from. There have been three draws, one Japan win that came after Venezuela fielded a suspended player back in 2014, and one very clear Venezuela victory, a 4-1 win at the 2019 Kirin Challenge Cup. That 2019 result is the only truly clean reference point from a competitive perspective, and it showed that Venezuela, on their day, can cause Japan real problems.

But that was seven years ago and these are very different squads in very different circumstances. Japan have more momentum, more quality in key areas, and the home advantage at Hiroshima. The head-to-head history is thin enough that current form should carry far more weight than any patterns from previous meetings.

Key Stats

• Ayase Ueda has 19 goals in 44 appearances for Japan. At a rate like that, he is always your first name on the teamsheet through the middle.
• Japan have scored 11 goals across their last five matches, averaging over two per game, which points firmly toward an over on the goals line.
• Venezuela have had three months without a competitive fixture, a rust factor that could show in their defensive shape and pressing intensity early on.

Japan vs Venezuela Betting Tips

Japan are the clear favourites here and for good reason. They are at home, in form, and facing a side that has barely played since June. Moriyasu has a strong core available and Ueda up top is a constant threat. The betting angle here is about backing Japan to win comfortably and looking at the goals markets, with Venezuela’s attacking options limited and their defensive cohesion untested after a long absence.

Corners Prediction

Japan are likely to dominate possession and territory for large portions of this game, which should generate a healthy corners count from the home side alone. Venezuela sitting deep to try and frustrate the hosts will only add to the corner opportunities. Back over 9.5 corners for the match.

Cards Prediction

This is a friendly and a low-stakes one at that, so neither side has much reason to go in hard. Venezuela might pick up a booking or two if they are chasing the game and getting frustrated, but overall the card count should stay low. Under 3.5 cards looks the sensible call here.

First Goalscorer Prediction

Ayase Ueda is the standout pick. Nineteen goals in 44 internationals is a serious return, he leads the line and gets into the right areas, and he already found the net against Uruguay. With service coming from Kubo and Kamada behind him, Ueda is priced up as Japan’s main outlet and that is exactly what he is.

Over and Under Goals Prediction

Japan averaged more than two goals per game across their last five and Venezuela are coming into this cold after three months off. The hosts should create plenty and there is enough uncertainty in the Venezuelan defensive setup to allow for a couple of goals at least. Over 2.5 goals looks well within reach here.

Correct Score Prediction

Japan to win 3-1 feels like a natural fit. The hosts have goals in them, Ueda and Kubo are dangerous, and Venezuela will likely nick something on the counter at some point in the game given the gaps that tend to appear when teams press high in friendlies. It mirrors Japan’s output against Uruguay and feels a realistic ceiling for what Venezuela can manage going forward.

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) Prediction

Yes, both teams to score. Japan have conceded in recent matches even when winning, and Venezuela have enough individual quality in Herrera and Segovia to threaten on the break. Vizcarrondo will not be setting up just to defend for 90 minutes, and with Japan potentially rotating and leaving some gaps, La Vinotinto should manage at least one effort on target that counts.

Bet Builder Tip

Ueda scoring in a game that features goals at both ends and ends with three or more on the board is a combination that fits naturally with how both sides are set up and what their recent form suggests.

Final Match Prediction

Japan win this one and probably win it without too much drama. They are the better organised side, they have momentum from the Uruguay result, and they have a striker in Ueda who knows where the goal is. Moriyasu will use this fixture to blood some of the uncapped players and keep his senior figures ticking over, and that rotation should not cost them the result.

Venezuela will get their moments, and Herrera and Segovia are capable of causing problems in short bursts, but the three-month absence and the lack of a clinical number nine without Rondon will cost them. Japan 3-1 Venezuela is the prediction, a result that keeps the Samurai Blue building nicely ahead of the Asian Cup.

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