Latvia vs Cyprus Prediction, Betting Tips & Preview

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Latvia

vs

Cyprus

KickoffMonday 28 September 2026, 5:00pm

VenueDaugava Stadium

CompetitionUEFA Nations League

Latvia and Cyprus both arrive at Stadions Skonto carrying the disappointment of opening day defeats, and with neither side having collected a point yet in this Nations League group, Monday night has the feel of a genuine must not lose fixture for both. The stakes are straightforward: whoever wins climbs out of the basement. Whoever loses is looking up from the bottom of the table with the relegation playoff zone already looming. What makes this interesting is the contrast in how those defeats came about. Latvia were second best against Armenia from the first whistle, dominated and ultimately outclassed. Cyprus actually led Montenegro before letting it slip in the closing stages. Those are very different types of defeat, and they tell you a lot about where each squad’s confidence is sitting right now.

The Latvians are in a difficult moment. They only kept their League C status after scraping through the relegation playoff against Gibraltar, and their overall form across the past year and a half has been genuinely poor. Paola Nicolato needs a reaction. Cyprus under Apostolos Mantzios have real attacking quality and will see this as a winnable game on the road. If Latvia cannot find a way to impose themselves at home, this could get difficult for them fairly quickly.

Latvia vs Cyprus Match Details

This fixture takes place at Stadions Skonto in Riga, with both sides competing in League C Group 2 of the UEFA Nations League 2026 to 2027 campaign. Latvia are hosting Cyprus knowing that three points would lift them off the foot of the table, while Cyprus are equally desperate to avoid slipping to the bottom themselves. The group is extremely tight at the top and the bottom, which means every point from here is precious.

Team News

Latvia’s manager Nicolato is likely to make changes after his side were thoroughly outplayed against Armenia, with several players pushing for a starting spot. Cyprus name a fairly settled side after their Montenegro defeat, keeping faith with the players who showed genuine attacking promise even if the result went against them.

• Oskars Vientiess, Roberts Uldrikis and Maksims Tonisevs are all pushing for starting places in the Latvia lineup following that limp showing against Armenia
• Marcus Edwards scored against Montenegro and keeps his place in the Cyprus attack
• Hector Kyprianou is expected to anchor the Cyprus midfield once again
• Nikolas Panagiotou and Constantinos Sotiriou continue in central defence for the visitors
• Ioannis Pittas and Marinos Tzionis should line up alongside Edwards in what is a well equipped Cyprus forward line

Predicted Lineups

Nicolato looks set to shuffle his pack for Latvia, with the Armenia performance leaving him little choice. Vientiess, Tonisevs and Uldrikis could all come in, giving Latvia more energy and a renewed threat going forward as the gaffer searches for a response from his squad.

Cyprus are expected to stick close to what they fielded against Montenegro. Edwards leads the line with purpose, Pittas offers a focal point, and Tzionis provides width and creativity. Kyprianou sits deep and protects the back four, with Kastanos and Andreou providing the legs in midfield. It is a side that looks well balanced and coherent, certainly more so than their opponents right now.

• Latvia: Matrevics; Melniks, Cernomordijs, Vientiess; Tonisevs, Vapne, Zelenkovs, Cirkin; Daskevics, Gutkovskis, Uldrikis
• Cyprus: Fabiano; Shikkis, Sotiriou, Panagiotou, Malekkidis; Edwards, Andreou, Kyprianou, Kastanos, Tzionis; Pittas

Recent Form

Latvia’s recent record is rough reading. Across their last 14 matches they have managed just two wins, both by a single goal, alongside five draws and seven defeats. That is not the form of a team building momentum. Those two victories came in the Gibraltar playoff, which kept them in League C, but outside of that safety net they have looked fragile and lacking in ideas. Their capitulation against Armenia was not exactly a shock given this context, but the manner of the defeat, being dominated throughout the ninety minutes, was still concerning for Nicolato.

Cyprus have been in noticeably better shape coming into this fixture. They went into the Nations League group stage on the back of two wins and a draw in friendly internationals, and that run had given them genuine confidence. The Montenegro loss snapped that sequence and came as a gut punch because they were ahead and looked capable of holding on before the game turned against them. Losing late hurts psychologically, but the underlying performance against Montenegro was more positive than Latvia’s showing against Armenia.

What the form table tells you is that Cyprus are trending upwards and Latvia are not. The Latvians are clinging on at this level. Cyprus finished third in their group last season and retained their League C status comfortably enough. There is a meaningful gap in trajectory between these two sides right now, even if the league table at this early stage looks almost identical.

Head-to-Head Record

These two sides met in the 2024 to 2025 Nations League campaign, with Cyprus earning a 1 to 1 draw in that fixture. It was a result that summed up the competitive balance between them at the time, neither side able to fully assert themselves over the other. Both teams were operating in League C, which speaks to their similar standing in European football, but the recent trajectory of the two sides suggests Cyprus have nudged ahead in terms of quality and cohesion.

There is not a huge body of historical meetings to draw on between Latvia and Cyprus, but what history exists points to tight, low scoring encounters where either side can nick something. Given that context, Cyprus will feel that a draw keeps them above Latvia on goal difference, but Mantzios will be targeting more than that.

Key Stats

• Latvia have won just two of their last 14 matches, a run spanning seven defeats and five draws
• Cyprus were leading Montenegro before conceding twice late, showing they can create and score at this level
• Latvia were outright dominated in their opening Nations League game, suggesting defensive and structural problems that Cyprus can exploit

Latvia vs Cyprus Betting Tips

Looking at this fixture honestly, Cyprus are the better side right now. Latvia were second best against Armenia from start to finish, while Cyprus showed real attacking threat against Montenegro and were unfortunate to lose. The quality that Edwards, Pittas and Tzionis carry in the final third is greater than anything Latvia are likely to produce at the other end, and with the Latvians under pressure at home and potentially making changes, there is a real chance Cyprus make their superiority count here.

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) Prediction

This one is a mild no from me. Latvia have struggled to find the net consistently and their attack lacks the quality to guarantee a goal against a Cyprus defence that looks reasonably organised. Cyprus should score, but Latvia finding the net at the other end is far from certain given their recent form and the dominance Armenia showed over them just days ago. No to BTTS.

Over and Under Goals Prediction

Given Latvia’s tendency to be involved in low scoring, tight affairs and Cyprus’s own cautious build from the back, this looks more like an under 2.5 goals game to me. Yes, Cyprus have attacking quality, but these Nations League group stage games between sides at this level often produce fewer goals than expected. Back under 2.5 goals.

Correct Score Prediction

Cyprus to win 1 to 0. A narrow away win feels right given the contrast in form and quality, with Edwards or Pittas providing the decisive moment. Latvia struggle to score and Cyprus have enough craft and composure to see out a tight victory without necessarily needing a second goal.

First Goalscorer Prediction

Marcus Edwards is the standout pick here. He was on the scoresheet against Montenegro, he is lively, direct and capable of producing a moment of quality at any point in a game. Playing off the left of a front three, he has the freedom to drift inside and create danger, and his confidence looks high despite the defeat. He is the player most likely to open the scoring in Riga.

Corners Prediction

Cyprus are likely to carry the game to Latvia for long spells and will look to get bodies forward and create opportunities from wide areas. Latvia, if they are chasing the game or pressed back, will give corners away cheaply. Over 8.5 corners looks a reasonable shout for a game where Cyprus should enjoy the better territorial spells.

Cards Prediction

With both sides desperate for points and the pressure of an early relegation playoff position hanging over them, this has the feel of a game where nerves fray and challenges fly in. Latvia in particular may get physical if things are going against them. Over 2.5 cards looks likely in what should be a competitive, scrappy affair at Stadions Skonto.

Bet Builder Tip

A tight Cyprus win with Edwards breaking the deadlock and the game staying low scoring fits the overall picture of this fixture neatly, given Latvia’s lack of attacking quality and Cyprus’s ability to control without always turning pressure into goals.

Final Match Prediction

Cyprus edge this one. Latvia were poor against Armenia and the changes Nicolato makes may help, but reshuffling a struggling squad rarely produces an immediate transformation. Cyprus carry more quality across the pitch and have attacking players who can hurt a Latvia side that has looked vulnerable at the back throughout their recent form run.

A 1 to 0 Cyprus victory looks the most likely outcome. Tight, tense, decided by a single moment of quality from one of the visitors’ forward players. Latvia stay bottom of Group 2, and Cyprus climb above them with their first points of the campaign.

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