Turkey vs Italy Prediction, Betting Tips & Preview

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Turkey

vs

Italy

KickoffMonday 28 September 2026, 7:45pm

CompetitionUEFA Nations League

Two sides with their backs already against the wall and only the second matchday of the group stage done. That is the situation Turkey and Italy find themselves in after both stumbled on the opening night of their UEFA Nations League campaign. The question for bettors is straightforward: which of these two struggling sides shows more fight when it matters, and is there any value in backing the hosts on home soil?

Turkey have something to prove at League A level having never played there before. Italy have something to prove under a returning manager who knows all too well how quickly goodwill evaporates in international football. This one has edge to it, and the group standings give it genuine stakes from the very first whistle.

Turkey vs Italy Match Details

This UEFA Nations League League A Group 1 fixture takes place at Bursa, as Turkey look to make their home support count following a difficult opening night in Kocaeli. Italy travel from Rome after a bruising home defeat, making this a genuinely pivotal early contest in a group that already features Belgium and France pulling clear.

Team News

Both squads are carrying some notable absences, which adds an interesting layer of uncertainty to team selection on both sides.

• Turkey goalkeeper Ugurcan Cakir is suspended after his red card against France, so Altay Bayindir steps in between the sticks having come on late in that defeat
• Hakan Calhanoglu is injured and will not feature for Turkey, a major loss given his influence in central midfield
• Kenan Yildiz is also out through injury, depriving Montella of another creative option
• Orkun Kokcu continues to nurse a toe problem and remains a doubt
• For Italy, Federico Dimarco, Bryan Cristante and Manuel Locatelli are all injured and unavailable
• Alessandro Bastoni returns from suspension and is expected to slot straight back into the back line
• Mateo Retegui was not selected for this squad, leaving the striker options more open than usual

Predicted Lineups

Vincenzo Montella has a fairly settled shape to fall back on even with those injury problems. Merih Demiral captains from centre back while Arda Guler continues to operate in a creative midfield role, and Baris Alper Yilmaz leads the line up top. Losing Calhanoglu and Yildiz hurts, but the bones of this Turkey side remain recognisable.

Roberto Mancini faces trickier decisions. With Locatelli, Cristante and Dimarco all out, the midfield and left side need reshaping. Bastoni coming back in is a boost at least. Up front there is a genuine selection dilemma, with Moise Kean, Gianluca Scamacca and the Esposito brothers all pushing for a start. Pio Esposito has five goals in ten international appearances and looks the most in form of the options available.

Turkey: Bayindir; Celik, Demiral, Bardakci; Aydin, Ozcan, Yuksek, Kadioglu; Guler, Akturkoglu; Yilmaz

Italy: Donnarumma; Kayode, Scalvini, Bastoni, Calafiori; Frattesi, Tonali, Mandragora; Cambiaghi, P. Esposito, Raspadori

Recent Form

Turkey came into the Nations League off the back of a difficult World Cup. They went out in the group stage, losing to Austria and Paraguay before beating the United States, and that makes it three defeats in four games for Montella heading into this fixture. But context matters here. Against France on matchday one, Turkey were genuinely competitive for the majority of the game. They tested Mike Maignan, they pressed high and made life uncomfortable, and it took a Kylian Mbappe moment of individual quality and then a VAR red card to really kill them off. There is something to build on even if the result was a loss.

Italy’s situation looks considerably more concerning. The Azzurri have just suffered a third consecutive failure to qualify for the World Cup in the normal fashion, which led to Gennaro Gattuso losing his job. An interim stint under Silvio Baldini followed, with experimental squads used in summer friendlies. Now Mancini is back, three years after departing for Saudi Arabia, and his first task ended in a 2-0 home defeat to Belgium at the Stadio Olimpico. They conceded midway through each half and never looked like getting back into it. That was Italy’s first competitive defeat to Belgium since 1972, which tells you plenty about how far the rebuilding process still has to go.

The contrast in performance levels on matchday one is stark. Turkey were organised and competitive against one of the tournament favourites. Italy looked disjointed and uncertain of their identity under a manager still finding his feet again after years away from elite European football. Momentum, such as it is after just one game each, points firmly in Turkey’s direction.

Head-to-Head Record

Italy have historically held the upper hand in meetings between these two nations, with the Azzurri generally the stronger side across their competitive encounters over the years. However, head to head records matter less than current form and context when one of the teams is in genuine transition, and Italy right now are very much a side searching for an identity.

Worth noting too is that Turkey on home soil, particularly in Bursa, will have a crowd fully behind them after the energy they showed against France. Playing Italy at this point, with Mancini’s squad still finding its shape and missing several key men, sets up far more favourably for the hosts than a glance at historical records might suggest.

Key Stats

• Italy have lost three consecutive World Cup qualifying cycles, underlining the structural problems Mancini has inherited
• Pio Esposito has five goals in just ten international appearances, making him one of the more dangerous options Italy can call upon from the forward line
• Turkey’s red card against France came after a VAR review, meaning Bayindir starts from scratch in goal rather than coming in under pressure mid game, which actually clears one uncertainty around the hosts

Turkey vs Italy Betting Tips

The overall angle here is Turkey at home against an Italy side that looked well short of the required standard in their opening fixture. Mancini has inherited a project rather than a finished product, and Turkey, despite their own injury problems, looked far more coherent and dangerous in their opening night performance. The value sits with the hosts and with goals, given the pressure both sides are under to actually win football matches.

Cards Prediction

Both sides will be playing with intensity given the pressure to pick up points early in the group, and Turkey will be fired up on home turf after the frustration of the red card against France. Expect a competitive, physical game with at least three or four bookings. Over 3.5 cards looks the sensible call.

Corners Prediction

Turkey like to press and get wide, and Italy will likely have plenty of the ball without knowing exactly what to do with it under a manager still bedding in. That combination tends to produce plenty of set piece situations. Over 9.5 corners in this one feels right.

First Goalscorer Prediction

Arda Guler pulls the strings for Turkey but it is Baris Alper Yilmaz who carries the attacking threat up front. He was lively against France and will be motivated to make an impact in a home fixture with points genuinely on the line. Yilmaz to score first is worth a look at what should be a decent price.

Correct Score Prediction

Turkey to win 2-1 feels like the most logical outcome. The hosts have more cohesion, genuine motivation and the crowd behind them. Italy will nick one because they have quality on the pitch even if the system is still uncertain, but Turkey have enough to see the game out.

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) Prediction

Yes. Italy have too much individual quality up front, even in a weakened squad, to be shut out entirely. And Turkey showed against France that they can create chances. Both teams finding the net looks the stronger call here.

Bet Builder Tip

A Turkey win with both teams scoring sets up perfectly for Yilmaz to get on the scoresheet early and give the hosts the platform to see the game out.

Final Match Prediction

Turkey showed against France that they can compete at this level, even if the result did not go their way. Italy showed against Belgium that they cannot. Mancini is rebuilding from the ground up, and that process rarely produces immediate results, especially away from home against a side with genuine quality of their own and a crowd roaring them on from the first minute.

Turkey 2-1 Italy. The hosts take three crucial points and celebrate their first ever win at League A level. Italy head to France with more questions than answers.

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