Novak Djokovic vs Nuno Borges Prediction, ATP Beijing Day 1 Betting Tips

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Novak Djokovic headlines the opening day of action at the China Open in Beijing, returning to the ATP 500 event for the first time in over a decade. It is a mouth-watering first day of tennis with some genuinely interesting first round clashes beyond the Djokovic match, so let us get into it.

Karen Khachanov vs Felix Auger-Aliassime

This is comfortably the most eye-catching first round draw of the day. Khachanov leads their head to head at 3-2, and the most recent meeting was a significant one. The Russian beat Auger-Aliassime in four sets on his way to the US Open semifinals, which was a proper statement from a player who can be frustratingly inconsistent. That win will have done wonders for his confidence coming into this one.

Auger-Aliassime is very much in the hunt for a Turin spot, which adds a layer of pressure to this opener. He needs results and facing Khachanov in round one is a brutal assignment. When the Russian is serving big and grinding from the baseline with that backhand, he is genuinely difficult to break down. I think the form and momentum are both with Khachanov here and he takes it in straight sets.

Jan-Lennard Struff vs Thiago Agustin Tirante

Tirante has had a remarkable season and that win over Djokovic in Cincinnati was the moment that announced him to a wider audience. What impressed me even more was that he did not just disappear afterwards, he backed it up and reached the quarterfinals. That kind of mental resilience is not easy to manufacture.

Struff has a poor record in Beijing, going winless in his two previous appearances here, though in fairness he ran into Zverev and Ruud on those occasions which is hardly ideal scheduling. The German lives and dies by his serve but he has not been collecting free points at the rate he needs to recently. Tirante moves well and has been in excellent touch on hard courts this season, sitting on 14 hard court wins coming into this match. I think the Argentine takes this one in a competitive three setter.

Zhizhen Zhang vs Arthur Gea

Arthur Gea had a brutal ending to his US Open campaign, losing in five sets to Botic van de Zandschulp in the round of 16, but he has bounced back well. Two solid wins in qualifying, including one against Tomas Machac, suggest the Frenchman is in reasonable shape coming into this.

Zhang, meanwhile, is in a rough patch that is difficult to overlook. One win from his last seven matches tells its own story, and he has been knocked out in the first round in each of his last two Beijing appearances. Playing on home soil did not lift him in Hangzhou either, which is a concern. I cannot see where the win is coming from for the former Chinese number one right now, and Gea should be good enough to wrap this up comfortably.

Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Yunchaokete Bu

Bu has a wonderful record in Beijing having reached the semifinals here a couple of seasons back, beating Lorenzo Musetti and Andrey Rublev before going down to Sinner. He has started this Asian swing in fine form too, reaching the Hangzhou quarterfinal and pushing his season record to an impressive 33 wins and 18 losses.

Cerundolo is no pushover and he did take Bu to three sets when they met in Shanghai last season, so their head to head meeting, which Bu leads 1-0, was competitive enough. But Bu’s ball striking is cleaner and more consistent, and on this surface in this form I think he grinds the Argentine down before too long. Give me Bu in straight sets.

Novak Djokovic vs Nuno Borges

This is the match everyone wants to see. Djokovic is back in Beijing for the first time since 2015 and he carries a quite extraordinary 29-0 record at this tournament into his first round clash with Borges. The Serbian has spoken positively about his physical condition after the struggles he encountered at the US Open, and the hope is that he is closer to his best here.

Borges is not the player to take lightly though. The Portuguese number one has improved significantly over the past year and reached the round of 16 at each of the last two hard court Masters 1000 events. He is quick around the court and if Djokovic is even slightly below full fitness, Borges has the game to make him uncomfortable. That said, Djokovic’s competitive instincts are extraordinary and his record in this city is not going to zero without a fight. I expect Djokovic to come through, though it may well take three sets before he puts it to bed.

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