Denmark vs Portugal Prediction, Betting Tips & Preview

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Denmark

vs

Portugal

KickoffThursday 1 October 2026, 7:45pm

VenueParken

CompetitionUEFA Nations League

Portugal are flying under Jorge Jesus and they will not want to let that momentum slip now. The reigning Nations League champions sit top of League A Group 4 with a perfect six points from two games, and a third straight win here would effectively put one hand on top spot in the group going into the November fixtures. Denmark, meanwhile, know that another defeat leaves them staring at a relegation battle before the group has even hit its halfway point. There is plenty riding on this one for both sides.

Brian Riemer has his team pointed in the right direction after bouncing back from that opening loss to Norway, but Portugal represent a significant step up from Wales. The Danes need a result here to keep themselves in the mix, and how Jesus handles his attacking options could define exactly how this game plays out.

Denmark vs Portugal Match Details

This Nations League Group 4 fixture takes place at a venue where Denmark will be desperate to use the home crowd as an advantage. It is their first home game of the group against a Portugal side that has been formidable on the road under Jesus, so the atmosphere should count for something, even if the quality gap on paper slightly favours the visitors.

Team News

Denmark have been hit with a significant blow going into this one, while Portugal have some welcome reinforcements heading back into contention.

• Patrick Dorgu picked up a hamstring injury against Wales and has returned to Manchester United, ruling him out of both this fixture and the Wales match on Sunday.
• Mohamed Daramy came off the bench to replace Dorgu against Wales and impressed enough to push for a starting berth this time around.
• Bruno Fernandes missed the Norway game for Portugal but has returned to training and is expected to start.
• Cristiano Ronaldo was an unused substitute against Norway and is anticipated to return to the starting lineup here.
• Goncalo Ramos scored against Norway and will feel hard done by if he drops out, which creates a genuine selection headache for Jesus up front.
• Vitinha is expected to come back into the Portugal midfield, with Joao Palhinha and Francisco Conceicao among those who could make way.

Predicted Lineups

Riemer will likely keep the bulk of his Wales lineup intact given how that result went. The Dorgu absence hurts down the left, but Daramy did enough coming on to earn a start. Rasmus Hojlund leads the line having scored 14 goals in 37 caps for his country, and he will be the focal point of whatever Denmark try to do going forward.

For Portugal, bringing Fernandes and Ronaldo back in alongside Joao Felix and Pedro Neto is a seriously scary front end to deal with. Jesus has options and a decision to make on Ramos, but with Ronaldo seemingly ready to return, the legendary forward is too important to leave out again. Portugal expected XI: D Costa; Cancelo, Dias, Veiga, Mendes; Vitinha, Fernandes, J Neves; Felix, Ronaldo, Neto. Denmark expected XI: Jorgensen; Kristensen, Andersen, Provstgaard, Maehle; Hjulmand, Hojbjerg; Isaksen, Damsgaard, Daramy; Hojlund.

Recent Form

Portugal have been quietly building something impressive since Jesus took charge and that opening group win over Wales, 1-0, was professional rather than spectacular. The 2-1 victory over Norway that followed showed they can handle pressure situations and find a way to get the job done. Two wins, six points, top of the group and the reigning champions showing no signs of a hangover. That is a decent account of themselves so far.

Denmark had a rocky start, losing 3-2 to Norway in their opener in a game where the defensive frailties were obvious. The response against Wales was much better and a clean sheet 2-0 victory is a solid platform to build on. Riemer has his team competing again and that first win of the group will have done wonders for the confidence heading into this one. Still, there is a difference between beating Wales and beating Portugal.

What stands out about Portugal is that they are winning without always being at their absolute best, and now they have Fernandes and Ronaldo back in the fold, the firepower at their disposal becomes genuinely frightening. Denmark have shown they can score goals and press high, but they also concede, and that will be a concern facing this Portugal attack.

Head-to-Head Record

The record between these sides tells you most of what you need to know. In 26 meetings, Denmark have won just four times, drawn twice, and lost 12. Portugal have dominated this fixture historically and have won four of the last five encounters between the two nations. The most recent chapter in this Nations League rivalry saw Denmark nick a 1-0 home win before Portugal absolutely dismantled them 5-2 in the return fixture. Portugal know how to hurt Denmark, and Denmark know how hard it is to stop them.

The one crumb of comfort for Danish fans is that they did win on home soil in the last tournament, so home advantage has counted for something before. But with this Portugal squad in the kind of shape they are currently in, replicating that result will take a near perfect performance from Riemer’s men.

Key Stats

• Portugal have won four of their last five meetings with Denmark and have outscored them heavily across that run.
• Denmark have taken three points from their opening two Nations League matches, with a win and a defeat, while Portugal have the maximum six points.
• Rasmus Hojlund has 14 goals in 37 international caps, giving Denmark a genuine goal threat at the top end of the pitch even against elite opposition.

Denmark vs Portugal Betting Tips

Portugal are the class act in this group and the smart money is on them finding a way to win again. Denmark are not a team you can dismiss entirely, especially at home, and Hojlund is always a threat, but the overall quality gap and Portugal’s momentum make Jesus’ side hard to oppose. I am leaning towards a Portugal win with goals at both ends given Denmark’s tendency to leave space in behind.

Cards Prediction

This kind of Nations League fixture, with Denmark needing a result and Portugal protecting a winning start, tends to produce some niggly moments in midfield. Hjulmand and Hojbjerg will be working hard to disrupt Portugal’s rhythm and I would expect a handful of bookings across the game. Over three cards in total looks fair.

First Goalscorer Prediction

Cristiano Ronaldo is back in the starting lineup after being left out against Norway and he will be itching to make a statement. At 41 he is still capable of delivering in the big moments on the international stage, and with the service he will get from Fernandes and Felix around him, he is well worth a look as first goalscorer at a tempting price.

Over and Under Goals Prediction

The last meeting between these sides ended 5-2 and the one before that was 1-0, so predicting the goals line is not straightforward. But with Portugal firing, Hojlund capable of scoring against anyone, and Denmark likely to commit men forward as the game progresses, over 2.5 goals looks a solid call here.

Correct Score Prediction

A 2-1 Portugal win feels like the most likely outcome to me. Denmark will get a foothold early and push hard, but Portugal’s quality in the final third will be the difference. Jesus has now won two on the bounce by a one goal margin and another controlled win looks the most probable result.

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) Prediction

Yes to BTTS here. Denmark have Hojlund leading the line and they are not short of creativity in midfield. Portugal’s back four has been solid but they did concede against Norway. Given Denmark’s attacking quality and Portugal’s willingness to play open football, both teams finding the net feels more likely than not.

Bet Builder Tip

Portugal winning with both teams scoring in a game where Ronaldo opens the scoring fits the overall picture of a high quality but competitive fixture that the visitors edge thanks to their attacking superiority.

Final Match Prediction

Denmark will give this a real go at home and Riemer has set his team up to be competitive. Hojlund will cause problems, the crowd will play their part, and there will be moments in this game where Denmark look genuinely threatening. But Portugal are simply the better side right now, and the returning Fernandes and Ronaldo combination gives Jesus an embarrassment of riches going forward.

I am calling a 2-1 Portugal win. The Danes get on the scoresheet because they are too good up front not to, but Portugal have that extra gear when it matters and three wins from three would be a statement of intent from the reigning champions.

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