Croatia vs England Prediction, Betting Tips & Preview

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Croatia

vs

England

KickoffSaturday 3 October 2026, 5:00pm

VenueStadion HNK Rijeka

CompetitionUEFA Nations League

TV ChannelITV

England arrive in Rijeka knowing that three points here would put serious daylight between themselves and Croatia in League A Group 3, and after the confidence boost of a clean sheet victory in Prague on Tuesday, Thomas Tuchel will want his side to back it up immediately. Win this, and England are four unbeaten against the Checkered Ones in a row for the first time ever. That is the kind of landmark that actually matters.

Croatia need a response and they need it fast. Slavan Bilic did not mince his words after the 4-1 hiding from Spain, calling out his defenders by name and saying his players lacked aggression. Those are strong words from a manager who knows this group well, and now he has to pick them back up and face an England side who already put four past them at the World Cup in the summer. The pressure in this camp is real.

Croatia vs England Match Details

This fixture takes place at Stadion HNK Rijeka, the same ground where Croatia played out a goalless draw with England back in the 2018 Nations League. The match is part of UEFA Nations League League A Group 3, with both sides having already played Spain and Czechia in the opening fixtures of this international break.

Team News

Both squads have been hit by injury concerns heading into this one, with some significant names either missing or doubtful for their respective managers.

• Nico O’Reilly has withdrawn from the England squad with injury, opening the door for Lewis Hall to continue at left back
• Ezri Konsa could return to the starting eleven after sitting out against Czechia, though Trevoh Chalobah will be pushing to keep his place alongside Marc Guehi
• Jordan Pickford is set to start after Tuchel confirmed the Everton keeper will play the next two games, replacing James Trafford
• Jude Bellingham is in contention to return in midfield, with Alex Scott and James Garner also pushing for starts
• For Croatia, both Josip Juranovic and Martin Erlic have pulled out of the squad through injury
• Brighton teenager Luka Vuskovic, 19 years old, is in line to partner Josko Gvardiol at centre back
• Luka Modric’s involvement is uncertain despite scoring on his last start against Czechia

Predicted Lineups

Tuchel looks set to make a handful of changes from the side that beat Czech Republic. Pickford comes in between the sticks, Bellingham should slot back into his midfield role, and the centre back pairing is likely to be Chalobah and Guehi unless Konsa forces his way in at the last moment. Hall stays at left back with Trent Alexander Arnold on the right, and Kane leads the line with Gordon and Saka either side.

Croatia have a defensive headache to solve without Juranovic and Erlic. Vuskovic stepping in alongside Gvardiol is a significant ask for a teenager in a fixture this big. Bilic will likely keep faith with Beljo up front after his goal against Spain, and there is a decision to make over whether the ageing but still influential Modric gets the nod in the middle of the park alongside Kovacic and Sucic.

Recent Form

England come into this on the back of a solid if unspectacular win in Prague. The Czech Republic were reduced to ten men which made life easier, but the manner of the victory, with goals from Gordon and Kane, and a first clean sheet in seven games, was pleasing for Tuchel. Before that they were edged out 3-2 by world champions Spain, so the response was exactly what was needed. Tuchel has now won 18 of his 24 games in charge since taking over at the start of 2025, a remarkable record that shows how settled and consistent this group has become on the road.

Croatia’s recent form tells a very different story. They started this Nations League campaign well enough with a 2-1 win away at Czechia, but the Spain result was damaging in more ways than one. Conceding four and having your manager publicly question your defensive quality is a rough place to be. The stat that really stands out is this: Croatia have conceded in 11 of their last 12 internationals across all competitions. For a side built on a solid defensive foundation during their golden generation, that is a troubling trend that England’s forward line will be desperate to exploit.

Croatia’s home record in competitive football does offer them some comfort. They are unbeaten in nine competitive home games, winning eight of them, with their last competitive home defeat coming against Turkey in October 2023. But England have shown in recent years that those kind of records mean very little when they travel with this level of quality. Four wins from four away games in Nations League football tells its own story about how the Three Lions perform on the road.

Head-to-Head Record

The recent head to head between these two sides is actually fascinating. Cast your mind back to 2018 and Croatia were the bogey team, beating England in a World Cup semi final and then drawing 0-0 when the Three Lions visited Rijeka in the Nations League that same year. But things have shifted significantly since then. England have won three of the last five meetings, with one draw and one defeat, and the most recent clash at the 2026 World Cup ended in a 4-2 hammering for Croatia in the group stage.

That goalless draw in Rijeka back in 2018 is the only time England have failed to score against Croatia in competitive football since, and with the firepower Tuchel currently has at his disposal, a repeat of that kind of stalemate feels very unlikely. England are targeting a fourth straight win over their old rivals, and the momentum in this fixture has firmly swung their way.

Key Stats

• Croatia have conceded in 11 of their last 12 internationals, making them extremely vulnerable against an England attack featuring Kane, Bellingham and Saka
• Six of England’s last seven games have produced over 2.5 goals, and six were scored the last time these two sides met
• Tuchel’s England have won four consecutive away games in Nations League competition, scoring freely in all of them
• Dion Beljo has scored five goals in his last four appearances for club and country, making him the chief threat for Croatia

Croatia vs England Betting Tips

England are the obvious favourites here and rightly so, but this is not a match to simply throw your money on a routine away win and move on. Croatia at home, even in questionable form, carry a threat. Beljo is in brilliant nick, Gvardiol is one of the best defenders in world football on his day and if Modric starts he can still unlock a defence with a single pass. The smart money is on an England win with goals at both ends, rather than a comfortable shut out.

First Goalscorer Prediction

Harry Kane is the obvious choice and sometimes the obvious choice is the right one. He has scored in some enormous games for England, he netted in the win over Czechia, and he will be desperate to add to his tally against a Croatian defence that has been shipping goals at an alarming rate. Kane as first goalscorer at a price worth taking.

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) Prediction

Yes, back both teams to score here. Croatia cannot stop conceding, but Beljo is in the form of his life and at home in Rijeka with a point to prove after the Spain thrashing, he will be a handful. England may well be without the defensive experience of Konsa, which gives Croatia a chance. Both teams to score looks a strong call.

Correct Score Prediction

A 3-1 England win feels about right. Croatia will get something from the game, likely through Beljo, but England’s quality in the final third is simply at another level and Tuchel’s side should be able to post three goals against this leaky backline.

Cards Prediction

This is a fixture with a bit of edge to it, and Bilic has already flagged that his side lacked aggression against Spain, which suggests they will be going in harder here. Croatia at home, stung from that defeat, England playing through some genuinely talented and energetic midfielders, there should be cards in this one. Back over four cards in the match at a reasonable price.

Bet Builder Tip

Kane opening the scoring in an England win where Croatia also find the net reflects everything the data points to in this fixture: England’s class, Croatia’s attacking threat through Beljo, and the wide open nature of a game between two sides who have both been involved in high scoring matches this week.

Final Match Prediction

England win this, and they win it with a bit to spare. Croatia’s defensive frailties are too significant to ignore at this level, and England’s front three of Saka, Kane and Gordon, potentially with Bellingham pulling strings behind them, is as dangerous as anything in international football right now. Tuchel has built a side that turns up in away games, stays compact when they need to, and punishes opponents who leave space.

Croatia will not go quietly, particularly in front of their own fans and with Bilic demanding more aggression after Tuesday’s disaster. Beljo will cause problems and may well grab one. But England’s quality tells in the end. Predicted score: England win 3-1.

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