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Leyton Orient
Plymouth ArgylePlymouth Argyle arrive at Brisbane Road sitting fourth in League One, but a shock defeat to Burton Albion last weekend has opened the door for Leyton Orient to do something genuinely interesting here. Win this one and the O’s leap above their visitors in the table despite coming in seven places below them. That is the kind of fixture context that makes Saturday afternoon football so compelling, and it is exactly what we are going to dig into here.
Richie Wellens has been building something at Leyton Orient without anyone really noticing, while Tom Cleverley’s Plymouth have been one of the division’s more talked about sides this season. But form lines are shifting, momentum is in question, and Brisbane Road could be a very lively place to be this weekend. Let’s break it all down.
This League One fixture takes place at Brisbane Road in East London, with Orient looking to make it back to back wins on their own patch and extend what has been a lengthy run of home games. For Plymouth, it is another away day in what has been a surprisingly productive spell on the road, as Cleverley’s side attempt to bounce back from a result that dented their title ambitions.
Neither side is dealing with a lengthy injury list, but there are a couple of selection calls worth watching heading into this one.
Wellens looks set to stick with what worked against Stevenage. The XI that kept a clean sheet and ground out a 1-0 win will likely get another chance to show what they can do, with Gilbert keeping his spot after that well taken goal on his first start in the league this term.
Leyton Orient expected lineup: Baxter; Stevens, Olowu, Forrester, Chinedu; Hayden, El Mizouni; Akhamrich, Gilbert, Springett; Kabia.
For Plymouth, the Pleguezuelo situation is the key call. If he is not fit, Ross slots in and the backline looks a little less experienced. Watts could get his first league start if Cleverley wants more energy in the forward areas after a toothless display against Burton.
Plymouth Argyle expected lineup: Cooper; Harding, Ross, Mitchell, Sorinola; Curtis, White, Bakinson, Irow; Watts, Pepple.
Leyton Orient’s form has been frustrating to follow. Wellens has not managed to string two consecutive league wins together at any point this season, which is a telling stat for a side with obvious ambitions in this division. They went on a three game losing run across all competitions, suffering defeats to Bradford City, Wycombe Wanderers and Arsenal’s Under 21 side before arresting that slide with a tidy 1-0 win over Stevenage. The question now is whether they can back it up, something they have not done yet this term. What makes the run of home fixtures even more interesting is that Orient have played five straight games at Brisbane Road, and they have only scored more than one goal in one of those matches. That is a concern if Plymouth can stay tight at the back.
Plymouth’s form is a more complex picture than the league table might suggest. Cleverley has the third best attacking record in League One and his side have been genuinely impressive in patches, but they have already lost three times in eight league games. The defeat to Burton was only the second time all season they have failed to score, which shows how dangerous they are going forward, but conceding in games they should be controlling is the issue that needs addressing. On the road though, Plymouth have been excellent. Back to back away wins at Doncaster and Blackpool, scoring seven goals across those two fixtures, suggest they are a very different animal when they are freed up from the pressure of performing at Home Park, where they have lost twice in four games.
That away form is probably the most important data point heading into this one. Plymouth travel well, they score freely on the road, and even when they concede they tend to have enough firepower to come out on top.
These two sides do not share the richest head to head history, but the pattern of recent meetings leans towards being competitive and relatively open affairs. Plymouth’s attacking quality tends to show up in fixtures like this, and Orient at home under Wellens have generally been competitive without being convincing. There is nothing in the historical record that would make you rule either side out here, but Plymouth’s recent dominance in away fixtures gives them a slight edge when you look at the overall picture.
The angle here is clear enough. Plymouth are the better side on current form when you factor in their away record, but Orient are dangerous enough at home to make a straight win bet feel a little risky at face value. The more interesting markets are around how the goals fall, and there are a couple of spots where the value looks genuine.
Plymouth’s away form points toward a multi goal display, but Orient have shown they can nick one even when they are not at their best. A 1-2 scoreline feels right here, with the Pilgrims having enough quality up front to secure the points without it being a comfortable afternoon for Cleverley’s backline.
Yes. Orient have been grinding out results recently and showed against Stevenage they can get on the scoresheet when it matters. Plymouth have been leaking goals on the road even while winning, conceding twice at both Doncaster and Blackpool. Both teams finding the net feels like a strong shout in this one.
Over 2.5 goals. Plymouth’s away games this season have been lively affairs and Orient’s limited scoring record at home does not suggest this will be a closed off tactical battle. Three or more goals has plenty of backing from the evidence on both sides.
Jaze Kabia is the name to be on for Orient’s top scorer, but for Plymouth the value could be in backing Caleb Watts if he gets that first league start. He has been champing at the bit from the bench across seven appearances and a player hungry to prove himself in a high profile away fixture is often exactly the kind of shout that pays off. Watts is worth a look at what should be a decent price.
This fixture has the ingredients for a few bookings. Orient will be competitive and physical at home, and Plymouth’s midfield creativity tends to draw fouls. Over 3.5 cards is a reasonable line to look at, particularly if the game gets tight in the second half and both sides start scrapping for the result.
| Market | Selection |
|---|---|
| Match Result | Plymouth Argyle to Win |
| Both Teams To Score | Yes |
| Total Goals | Over 2.5 |
Plymouth winning while both sides score and the game producing three or more goals fits the template of their recent away outings perfectly and stacks up well with Orient’s attacking limitations at home.
Orient will give a good account of themselves here. Wellens has them organised and they will make Plymouth work for it. But the Pilgrims have too much quality on the road to come unstuck at Brisbane Road, and the form they showed at Doncaster and Blackpool suggests they will have the answers when it matters. Leyton Orient 1-2 Plymouth Argyle.
Plymouth bounce back from the Burton disappointment, claim another three points away from home, and keep the pressure on at the top of League One. Orient show enough to give the home fans something to cheer but ultimately fall short against a side with genuine promotion credentials.