Greece vs Germany Prediction, Betting Tips & Preview

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Greece

vs

Germany

KickoffSunday 4 October 2026, 7:45pm

VenueToumba Stadium

CompetitionUEFA Nations League

Greece sitting top of their Nations League group and Germany still trying to find their feet under Jurgen Klopp. That contrast tells you everything you need to know about where these two sides are right now. Ivan Jovanovic has built something genuinely impressive with the Greek national team, compact and hard to break down but with real quality in the final third. Klopp, meanwhile, is still working out what his Germany looks like, and the injury list heading into this one is not helping his cause.

The Greeks are not parking the bus and nicking results either. They went two goals up against Netherlands before being pegged back to a 2-2 draw, and they beat Germany 1-0 at the end of September in what was a landmark result for Greek football. There is belief in this squad, and home advantage in Athens makes them a serious proposition here.

Greece vs Germany Match Details

This Nations League Group 2 of League A fixture takes place in Greece, with the hosts sitting at the top of the table and the visitors needing a result to keep their campaign alive. Greece lead the group on seven points, while Germany are third on four, meaning the pressure is very much on Klopp’s side to deliver on the road.

Team News

Greece have one significant concern from their last outing, while Germany are carrying a heavier injury burden heading into this one.

• Christos Tzolis is highly unlikely to feature after being forced off with an injury against Netherlands. The Arsenal winger is a big miss in terms of creativity and direct running.
• Georgios Masouras is the likely beneficiary of that absence and comes into this match in fine form, having scored and assisted in the draw with Holland.
• Fotios Ioannidis and Vangelis Pavlidis are both expected to start and bring 17 international goals between them to the forward line.
• Kai Havertz is absent for Germany through injury, a huge blow given his creative and goalscoring output at international level.
• Jamal Musiala is also missing, which strips Germany of two of their most dangerous attacking players in one go.
• Serge Gnabry and Florian Wirtz are both expected to start and will be tasked with carrying the attacking threat.
• Nick Woltemade and Said El Mala could both feature in the final third for the visitors, with El Mala potentially making only his second international appearance.

Predicted Lineups

Greece will likely stick close to the side that has been performing so well, with Masouras stepping into the role vacated by Tzolis on the left side of attack. Jovanovic has a settled and functional team and there is little reason to tinker when you are top of the group.

Greece: Tzolakis; Saliakas, Mavropanos, Retsos, Tsimikas; Karetsas, Kourbelis, Androutsos, Masouras; Pavlidis, Ioannidis.

Klopp faces a trickier puzzle without Havertz and Musiala, and he has also rotated the squad to take a look at some fringe players. Wirtz is the standout creative force available and will need to be central to everything Germany do going forward. Gnabry adds experience on the other flank.

Germany: Urbig; Treu, Thiaw, Anton, Raum; Gnabry, Pavlovic, Bischof, El Mala; Woltemade, Wirtz.

Recent Form

Greece have been one of the more pleasant surprises in this Nations League campaign. They kicked things off with a 2-1 win over Serbia, then produced arguably the result of the group stage so far by beating Germany 1-0. The draw with Netherlands that followed might look like a stumble, but going two goals up against a Dutch side of that quality before being pulled back tells you more about the strength of their performance than the final scoreline suggests.

Seven points from three matches is a serious return, and it shows a team that is well organised defensively but not afraid to get forward and hurt teams. Pavlidis and Ioannidis are a constant threat, and the creative players around them are in good nick. Greece have real momentum and the confidence that comes from having already beaten their opponents this week.

Germany’s campaign has been stuttery. They drew 1-1 with Netherlands on the opening matchday, lost 1-0 to Greece, and then got themselves up and running with a 2-0 win over Serbia last time out. That Serbia win steadied the ship a little, but four points from three games with only one clean sheet and a defeat to the side they now face again is not exactly a platform of confidence. The absences of Havertz and Musiala make the task in Athens significantly harder.

Head-to-Head Record

Greece and Germany have met 11 times before this fixture, and the recent victory for the Greeks was genuinely historic. It was the first time Greece had ever beaten Germany in any competition across all those previous meetings. That is a significant psychological shift and gives Jovanovic’s side extra belief going into this rematch.

Germany had dominated this fixture historically, but that dominance counts for nothing when a team has just been beaten by the same opponent a matter of weeks ago. The head to head record actually works in Germany’s favour over the long run, but the most relevant data point here is the most recent one, and that points firmly toward Greece.

Key Stats

• Greece are top of Nations League Group 2 of League A with seven points from three games, three points clear of Germany in third.
• Pavlidis and Ioannidis have combined for 17 international goals for Greece, making them one of the most potent striking partnerships in this competition.
• Germany are without both Havertz and Musiala, removing two of their most influential attacking players from the squad entirely.
• Greece’s win at the end of September was the first time in 11 meetings that they had ever beaten Germany.

Greece vs Germany Betting Tips

Greece are the value pick here. They are at home, in form, full of confidence after that historic recent win over Germany, and they are facing a visitor who is missing key players and still finding their way under a new manager. Germany are not a bad side and Wirtz can hurt anyone on his day, but the Greek setup is tight, the attacking quality is genuine, and the group stage context adds extra pressure to Klopp’s men rather than the hosts.

Corners Prediction

Greece will be comfortable here and are likely to control large portions of the game. Germany will need to chase it at some point and Klopp’s teams tend to be direct and aggressive going forward, which should generate corner opportunities at both ends. A total of ten or more corners looks achievable in this one.

Correct Score Prediction

Greece to win 1-0 is the call. They kept it tight in the reverse fixture and got the job done with a single goal, and with Germany short of their best attacking options, another controlled defensive performance from Jovanovic’s side feels very likely. Greece do not need to throw bodies forward to win this one, they just need to stay solid and let Pavlidis or Ioannidis take their chance.

First Goalscorer Prediction

Vangelis Pavlidis is the pick here. He is one half of a deadly striking partnership that has scored 17 goals between them for the national team, and with Greece expected to carry a real threat on the counter and from set pieces, Pavlidis has the positioning and composure to get on the scoresheet. He is a smart operator in the box and Germany’s defence will have a job keeping him quiet.

Over and Under Goals Prediction

Under 2.5 goals is the sensible call. Greece are set up to be hard to break down and have already shown they can keep Germany quiet once this month. With Havertz and Musiala absent, the creativity in Germany’s attack is limited, and Greece are unlikely to throw caution to the wind even at home. A tight, low scoring game fits the pattern of this fixture perfectly.

Bet Builder Tip

A tight Greek win with Pavlidis grabbing the opener fits the pattern of how this fixture has already played out once this month, and with Germany lacking their two most dangerous attackers, keeping it under 2.5 goals is a realistic expectation.

Final Match Prediction

Greece have every reason to be confident going into this one. They are at home, they have already beaten this Germany side, and they carry more form and momentum than their opponents heading into the October window. Klopp is still building and experimenting, and losing Havertz and Musiala for this trip to Athens is a significant handicap.

Greece to win 1-0. Jovanovic’s side have shown they know how to win ugly when they need to, and another controlled, disciplined performance against a Germany team short of their best should be enough to extend their lead at the top of the group. This is a team that knows exactly what they are doing right now, and that matters enormously in international football.

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