Italy vs Turkey Prediction, Betting Tips & Preview

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Italy

vs

Turkey

KickoffMonday 5 October 2026, 7:45pm

VenueStadio Olimpico

CompetitionUEFA Nations League

There is something genuinely fascinating about this one when you zoom out and look at the bigger picture. Roberto Mancini is back in the Italy dugout, and after a rocky start he is already showing signs of getting the Azzurri firing again. Standing in his way is Vincenzo Montella, his old Sampdoria teammate, now under serious pressure as Turkey manager and desperately short of options heading into this second meeting between the two sides in just over a week. Two old friends, two very different fortunes right now.

Italy need the points to keep themselves in contention at the top of Nations League Group 1. Turkey need them just to stay afloat. That contrast in stakes gives this fixture a real edge, even at this stage of the competition.

Italy vs Turkey Match Details

This UEFA Nations League League A Group 1 clash takes place at Stadio Dall’Ara in Bologna, a ground with a proper old school atmosphere that suits an occasion like this. Italy are the hosts for the second time in this group stage cycle, looking to build on some genuine momentum after back to back encouraging performances.

Team News

Both squads are dealing with notable absentees, but Turkey have been hit particularly hard heading into this one.

• Giacomo Raspadori is out injured for Italy, having been replaced against France
• Nicolo Barella and Gianluca Mancini were benched against France and could return to the starting eleven here
• Antonio Vergara impressed off the bench on debut and is pushing for a start
• Arda Guler is suspended for Turkey after picking up a booking in the Belgium defeat, a massive loss
• Baris Alper Yilmaz is also suspended, further gutting the Turkish attack
• Hakan Calhanoglu remains injured, meaning Turkey’s creative engine room is essentially missing entirely
• Kenan Yildiz is also unavailable through injury
• Merih Demiral will captain Turkey again in the absence of Calhanoglu

Predicted Lineups

Mancini made only two changes for Friday’s draw in Paris, but with Turkey being the lighter opposition on paper and a squad that needs minutes, more rotation feels likely here. Barella looks set to come back in after being rested, and the Esposito brothers could start together again after their bright showing in Bursa. Vergara’s debut impact makes him hard to leave out entirely, and Kean offers a different physical option up top. The back line picks itself for the most part, with Bastoni and Scalvini looking solid together.

For Turkey, Montella has barely any attacking options left after the suspensions and injuries. Akgun and Akturkoglu carry the burden in the forward areas, while Demiral leads from the back in his captain’s role. The shape will likely be cautious given the circumstances, but they simply do not have the personnel to cause Italy the kind of problems they would want to.

• Italy: Donnarumma; Kayode, Scalvini, Bastoni, Calafiori; Barella, Tonali, Frattesi; Vergara, P. Esposito, Kean
• Turkey: Cakir; Kabak, Demiral, Celik; Kadioglu, Ozcan, Yuksek, Elmali; Akgun, Akturkoglu; Gul

Recent Form

Italy’s Nations League campaign started about as badly as Mancini could have scripted it, going down at home to Belgium in the opening fixture. But the response since then has been sharp. They went to Bursa and absolutely dismantled Turkey 4-1, with Pio Esposito and Michael Kayode getting on the scoresheet alongside others. Three goals before halftime in that game told you everything about how dominant Italy were. Then on Friday night they headed to Paris and ground out a point against France, relying on Gianluigi Donnarumma making seven saves in what was a disciplined and organised defensive display. That is four points from two games after the opening loss, and the confidence levels are rising noticeably.

Turkey are a different story entirely. No points from three games, sitting bottom of Group 1, and the manner of those defeats tells you this is not just bad luck. They lost to France at home in their opener, then got taken apart by Italy in their own backyard, and then went to Belgium and lost 3-0. That is a fifth defeat in six games when you factor in the World Cup, where they also made an early exit. The goals are drying up, the key players are unavailable, and the travelling to Bologna with essentially their backup attack is the kind of trip that tends to end in a heavy result.

Montella’s position looks genuinely precarious. He apparently survived the sack after the World Cup, but another defeat here, with relegation from League A looking increasingly inevitable, would seriously test the patience of the Turkish football federation. That kind of pressure on a coaching staff does not often produce inspired performances on the pitch.

Head-to-Head Record

History is firmly with the hosts here. Italy have won three of their last four meetings with Turkey, including a 3-0 victory during their triumphant run to Euro 2020 glory in 2021. The most recent meeting, just eight days ago in Bursa, ended 4-1 to Italy, and that scoreline probably flatters Turkey slightly given how dominant the Azzurri were for long stretches. Turkey have struggled to get anything from these fixtures in recent times, and facing a more motivated and better organised Italian side on their own patch makes improving on that record even harder.

Key Stats

• Pio Esposito has scored once every two international appearances across 12 caps, a remarkable return for a player of his age
• Turkey have lost five of their last six games across all competitions, scoring very few goals in the process
• Italy scored four times against this Turkey side just over a week ago, and Turkey now arrive missing Guler, Yilmaz, Calhanoglu and Yildiz

Italy vs Turkey Betting Tips

The angle here is pretty clear. Italy are at home, in form, and facing a Turkey side that is depleted, demoralised, and yet to register a single point in this group. The 4-1 win in Bursa was convincing enough, but this time Turkey arrive without their best attacking players. Italy should have too much quality across the pitch, and the goal is to win well and keep pressure on France and Belgium above them.

Over and Under Goals Prediction

Italy scored four in Bursa and three in their home game against Belgium earlier in the group. Turkey have conceded freely throughout and now arrive without their main creative outlets. The goals line should lean toward the over, with Italy capable of scoring two or three without too much trouble. Over 2.5 goals looks the smart call given the way this match sets up.

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) Prediction

Turkey’s attacking situation is genuinely dire right now. Guler suspended, Yilmaz suspended, Calhanoglu and Yildiz both injured. Whoever Montella cobbles together up front is going to find it very tough against a back line that looked solid in Paris on Friday. Italy to keep a clean sheet is not out of the question, and BTTS no looks the more sensible selection.

Cards Prediction

Turkey are a side under pressure and missing their more technically gifted players, which often means a more physical and frustrated approach from the outfield players. Italy will be looking to press high and transition quickly, which can lead to cynical fouls from a chasing team. A few bookings feels likely, particularly in midfield where Turkey will need to be aggressive to disrupt Italy’s rhythm. Over 3.5 cards in the match is worth a look.

Correct Score Prediction

Italy ran out 4-1 winners last week, but home comforts and a slightly more measured approach against a depleted opponent could see a tidier scoreline this time. A 2-0 home win feels like the most likely outcome, with Italy controlling the game without necessarily going into full attack mode in the second half once the points look safe.

First Goalscorer Prediction

Pio Esposito is the standout shout here. He has been one of the brightest sparks of Mancini’s second spell, scoring at a rate of one goal every two games for the national side. He got on the scoresheet in Bursa against this very Turkey defence, and he looks sharp, hungry, and confident enough to test an undermanned Turkish back line early doors.

Bet Builder Tip

Italy winning to nil with at least two goals fits perfectly with the form, the team news, and the manner of the previous meeting between these two sides.

Final Match Prediction

Italy have found something under Mancini again, and this fixture suits them down to the ground. Hosting a Turkey side that cannot call on four of their most influential players, in a ground that gives the Azzurri a proper home advantage, the Italians should have far too much quality here. Expect them to take control early, score before halftime, and see the game out comfortably.

Montella needs a miracle, but right now his squad looks like it is missing the very players who might provide one. Another defeat looks inevitable, and with France visiting Milan next month and a trip to Brussels to follow, Italy will want the three points secured before the pressure really ramps up. Italy 2-0 Turkey.

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