Porto vs Napoli Prediction, Betting Tips & Preview
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Lens
ComoLens find themselves at a crossroads in this Champions League campaign, sitting below the playoff zone with just three points from three games and a defensive record that frankly does not bear much scrutiny. They started with a brilliant comeback win over Slavia Prague and have gone backwards ever since, conceding five in their next two without scoring a single reply. Como, meanwhile, are strutting around Europe like they have been here before, which is remarkable given where this club was just a few years ago. Cesc Fabregas has them playing with a confidence and a cutting edge that most clubs would envy, and they arrive at Stade Bollaert having already dispatched Manchester United in a manner that turned heads right across the continent.
The contrast in momentum could not be starker. Lens lost the Derby du Nord to Lille at the weekend, a late Olivier Giroud goal doing the damage and leaving them ninth in Ligue 1. Como, by contrast, are fourth in Serie A with a club record 23 points from their opening ten games and have won five on the bounce across all competitions. Cahuzac is under real pressure to get a result here. His opposite number Fabregas looks like a man who has already figured the game out.
This Champions League league phase fixture takes place at Stade Bollaert-Delelis in Lens, a ground with genuine European history and an atmosphere that can be ferocious when things are going well for the home side. The problem for Lens is that things are very much not going well right now, and Como are exactly the kind of side capable of exploiting that. With five games still to play in the league phase, both sides know where they stand. Como need two more wins to feel comfortable about the knockout rounds. Lens almost certainly need the same just to stay alive in the competition.
Lens have a genuinely threadbare squad to pick from going into this one, with key figures missing in multiple positions. Cahuzac has some serious gaps to fill, particularly in attack where his most clinical options are unavailable.
Como are not at full strength either, but the depth Fabregas has at his disposal softens the blow considerably.
Cahuzac will likely set Lens up in a shape designed to stay compact and frustrate, with Florian Thauvin asked to carry the creative burden from a deeper position. The veteran playmaker has actually been one of the standout chance creators in the entire Champions League this season with 15 chances created across the first three matchdays, so he carries a real threat even if the end product has been lacking. Ivanovic up top is a gamble as a focal point, but there is not much choice.
Lens expected lineup: Risser; Aguilar, Baidoo, Todibo; Abdulhamid, Cuisance, Haidara, Udol; Thauvin, Sotoca; Ivanovic
Fabregas will trust his best players to do the damage. Paz and Douvikas have been sensational in both Serie A and in Europe, and Da Cunha comes in having scored the only goal at the weekend from the spot. Butez gets the nod in goal ahead of Robert Sanchez.
Como expected lineup: Butez; Smolcic, Kempf, Ramon, Valle; Perrone, Ricci; Da Cunha, Paz, Baturina; Douvikas
Lens started this Champions League campaign with real promise. Coming back from two goals down to beat Slavia Prague 3 to 2 was exactly the kind of result that gets a fanbase dreaming, and the atmosphere at Bollaert that night must have been special. But since then it has been two straight defeats, a 2 to 0 loss at home to Sporting Lisbon followed by a 3 to 0 hammering away at Club Brugge. That is five goals conceded and none scored across two games, and a clean sheet record in the Champions League that stretches back 28 years. In Ligue 1, losing the Derby du Nord at the death to a Giroud header is exactly the kind of result that can knock the stuffing out of a changing room.
Como are going in the opposite direction at considerable pace. The 4 to 1 win over Manchester United was the headline, but the five game winning run across all competitions since losing to Feyenoord on matchday two tells the fuller story. Thirteen goals scored and only three conceded during that run, with every single Champions League goal coming from open play. That is a team playing with freedom, quality and tactical discipline all at once. The 1 to 0 win over Venezia at the weekend was more controlled than spectacular, but winning ugly is a sign of a mature side.
Ten goals in three Champions League outings is the best debut haul by any side in the competition since 1973. That statistic says everything you need to know about the kind of threat Fabregas has built. This is not a team riding its luck. They are genuinely good.
These two clubs have never met before in European competition, and their paths have never crossed in any meaningful context given the different leagues and the difference in their recent histories. Como were in Serie D as recently as 2019, so a head to head section for this fixture is essentially starting from scratch. What we can say is that Lens have Champions League experience that Como lack, but experience counts for very little when you are this short of confidence and this depleted in personnel. First meetings can go either way, but the form book and the squad quality point firmly in one direction.
This feels like one of those games where the story writes itself. Lens are short on personnel, short on form and short on confidence after back to back heavy European defeats. Como are in the form of their lives, led by two of the most dangerous attackers in this season’s Champions League, and they have a habit of getting on the scoresheet early. The smart money looks to be firmly in the visitors’ corner, and there are several markets that stand out as a result.
Lens will need to be physically committed to have any chance of keeping Como quiet, and with the home side under pressure and likely chasing the game at some point, expect a booking or two on the Lens side. A match with three to five cards feels about right for a competitive European fixture where one side is desperate for points.
Lens did manage to score in their opening Champions League win and they have Thauvin in creative form, so they carry a threat going forward even against a sturdy Como backline. But Lens cannot keep a clean sheet in this competition and Como are far too dangerous to be shut out. Both teams to score looks a solid call here.
Como like to press and attack in numbers, and Lens will need to get bodies forward as the game goes on if they are chasing the game. That combination tends to produce a decent corners count. Over eight and a half corners in the match looks a reasonable angle.
With Como averaging over three goals per Champions League game this season and Lens shipping five across their last two European outings, the over two and a half goals line is almost irresistible. Both managers will be setting up to influence the game rather than park the bus, and the firepower Como carry up front makes goals extremely likely.
Tasos Douvikas has scored in all three of Como’s Champions League games this season, and he is the kind of centre forward who thrives against a back four under pressure. With Como likely to start on the front foot and create early chances, Douvikas to open the scoring is the pick here.
| Market | Selection |
|---|---|
| Match Result | Como to Win |
| Both Teams To Score | Yes |
| First Goalscorer | Tasos Douvikas |
Como’s attacking quality points strongly to a win, Lens have enough going forward to get on the scoresheet even in defeat, and Douvikas scoring first in all three Champions League games this season makes him the logical pick to open the scoring.
Lens need this result badly but the tools available to Cahuzac right now simply do not match up against what Fabregas has at his disposal. A depleted back line, no Edouard, and a psychological hangover from losing the Derby du Nord is a rough combination heading into a home European fixture. Como will come here and play without fear, because that is what this side does.
Expect Como to take an early lead, Lens to briefly threaten a response, and the Italian side to ultimately pull away. A 1 to 3 scoreline with Douvikas among the goals feels about right, and Como will move up to nine points and leave Lens stranded and staring at a very early Champions League exit.
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