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Wigan Athletic
Mansfield TownWigan Athletic are in genuine trouble. Three points from their last four League One fixtures before Friday’s win over Bromley, a goal difference of minus eleven, and only three clubs sitting below them in the table. Gary Caldwell’s side needed that victory badly, but context matters here: Bromley are rooted in the bottom four, and a 3-2 home win against them is not the kind of result that sends shockwaves through a division. Mansfield Town, meanwhile, had put together four unbeaten league games before Notts County ended that run on the same night. The Stags are not in crisis, they are mid-table and scoring goals freely. This fixture has the look of a dangerous away day for a Wigan side that is still finding its feet.
Nigel Clough’s men have scored twenty league goals in twelve games this season. Wigan have conceded twenty-two in thirteen. You do not need to be a statistician to see where the threat is coming from in this one.
This League One fixture takes place at Brick Community Stadium, the home of Wigan Athletic. Wigan sit twenty-first in the table heading into this one, while Mansfield arrive in twelfth, making this a meeting between a side battling to drag itself clear of the relegation zone and one that has genuine ambitions of pushing further up the standings before the season turns.
Caldwell has a few things to sort through ahead of this one. The Bromley win gave some players minutes, but the squad still has gaps that are hard to paper over.
For Mansfield, Clough is dealing with a growing injury list at a frustrating time. David McGoldrick has not played since mid-September and is still about three weeks away from fitness with a knee problem. Lucas Akins damaged his hamstring during the international break with no return date in sight. Liam Thompson, who had started every league game since signing, came off at half-time at Blackpool with what Clough called a significant calf injury, which is a real blow to their midfield engine. Baily Cargill remains a doubt, and George Abbott is uncertain after picking up a knock at Blackpool, which means Regan Hendry, who stepped in and then started against Notts County, is likely to keep that midfield berth.
Caldwell will likely line up in a shape similar to what worked against Bromley. Murray slots straight back into the picture after his suspension, which gives Caldwell an extra option in the middle of the park. Saydee may again be managed in terms of minutes, with Hogan expected to come on and close out the game if needed. Max Power and Gray provide some experience in the engine room.
Wigan probable XI: Whitworth; Barrett, Carragher, Burns, Weir, Miller; Gray, Power, Murray; Burrowes, Saydee
Clough will have to reshuffle slightly without Thompson, but Mansfield have enough in the tank to cope. Hendry keeps his place, with Russell and Moriah-Welsh providing legs and craft either side. Smith leads the line with McGoldrick still out.
Mansfield probable XI: Roberts; Bowery, Oshilaja, Sweeney; Reed; Moriah-Welsh, Hendry, Russell, McLaughlin; Smith
Wigan’s October was a horror show. A 1-0 defeat at Stevenage kicked things off, then a home win over Reading offered a brief lift, but defeats at Oxford, Huddersfield and then a 3-0 hammering at Leicester City followed in quick succession. That Leicester defeat was particularly ugly in the context of a League One season, conceding three without reply against a Championship outfit is one thing, but the manner of the previous two league defeats showed a back line that is leaking goals at a worrying rate. The win over Bromley on the final day of October was necessary, but Caldwell will know his side are still operating below the level needed to avoid a genuine relegation fight.
Mansfield’s form tells a different story. They beat Bromley 2-1, drew 1-1 with Oxford, then went to AFC Wimbledon and won 3-0, followed that up with a 4-1 thumping of Blackpool, and only hit a wall when Notts County came to the One Call Stadium and left with a 2-0 win. That derby defeat stings, but the underlying numbers are solid. Twenty goals scored in twelve league games at an average of nearly two per match, and a positive goal difference of plus two. They are a team that creates and scores, even if they have not always been entirely watertight at the back.
The contrast in trajectories is stark. Wigan are fighting for confidence and consistency, while Mansfield arrive having briefly lost their footing but with genuine momentum behind them across the wider body of work this season. Away from home, Clough’s side have shown they can perform, picking up that 3-0 win at Wimbledon and the big result at Blackpool in their most recent road trips.
These two clubs have met regularly enough in the lower leagues, and meetings between them tend to be competitive affairs without huge margins separating the sides. Wigan have historically had the advantage of playing at home in these encounters, and Brick Community Stadium can be a fortress when the crowd gets behind the team, but with Caldwell’s side sitting in the bottom four and confidence still fragile, the home advantage may count for less than usual here. Mansfield have shown this season that they are comfortable travelling and picking up points on the road, which adds to the case for backing them here.
Wigan’s morale will have had a shot in the arm from beating Bromley, but Tuesday night at home against a side with Mansfield’s firepower is a very different proposition. The numbers point in one direction and one direction only here, which is towards goals and towards Mansfield making the most of a Wigan defensive unit that has been porous all season. There are a few angles worth exploring across the markets.
With Wigan averaging close to 1.7 goals conceded per game and Mansfield averaging nearly 1.7 scored per game going forward, the case for over 2.5 goals is straightforward. Add in the fact that Wigan have shown attacking intent even in defeats, and there is every reason to expect this one to produce goals at both ends. Back over 2.5 goals.
Mansfield have the quality to edge this one, but Wigan have enough threat going forward, particularly with Murray back in the team, to get on the scoresheet. A 1-2 scoreline in favour of the visitors feels like the most likely outcome, reflecting the overall pattern of a Wigan side that scores occasionally but cannot stop the other end from leaking.
Wigan have already had Murray sent off this season and have shown a tendency to get into trouble when the pressure is on. A Tuesday night League One fixture with relegation nerves starting to bite for the home side is the kind of game where tackles fly in. Back over three cards in this one, with the home side likely to provide the bulk of them as frustration builds if things go against them.
With McGoldrick and Akins both absent for Mansfield, the focal point of their attack falls to Smith leading the line. He offers a direct threat and has a Mansfield side behind him that creates chances regularly. Smith to score first is worth a look at what should be a generous price given the absentees ahead of him in the pecking order.
Mansfield play a direct, forward-thinking style that tends to generate set piece opportunities. Wigan, when chasing games or under pressure, tend to push players forward and invite the opposition to hit them on the break, which in turn produces corners at both ends. Back over nine corners in this one.
| Market | Selection |
|---|---|
| Match Result | Mansfield Town to Win |
| Both Teams to Score | Yes |
| Over 2.5 Goals | Over 2.5 |
Mansfield’s attacking output and Wigan’s defensive vulnerability make all three of these selections point in the same direction, giving the bet builder a solid foundation built on genuine statistical evidence rather than hope.
Wigan needed the Bromley win and they got it, but three points against a bottom-four side should not mask the scale of the problems Caldwell is dealing with. A defence that has conceded twenty-two goals in thirteen games is going to find Mansfield’s attack a serious handful, and with the Stags’ only real blip being a derby defeat that every neutral understands carries its own unique pressure, there is nothing here to suggest they cannot bounce back on the road.
Mansfield arrive with better numbers, more firepower, and a manager in Clough who knows exactly what his side need to do to win football matches at this level. Wigan will give it a go, particularly with home support behind them and Murray back to add energy in the middle, but the most likely outcome is a narrow away win. Wigan Athletic 1-2 Mansfield Town.
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