With the advancement of data collection in sport, it seems as though there are new betting markets popping up on bookmakers websites every week. Gone are the days of only being able to bet on the Match Result or Goalscorers. Punters can now choose between often hundreds of betting markets including the number of passes a player will make in a game, certain players to score with a specific part of their body, and one of the newest betting markets – which area of the goal a penalty will be scored in.
We’ll be taking a closer look at the ‘Which Way?’ penalty betting market, and showing you how it works, and how the bookies determine what counts as a specific area of the goal.
Betting on penalties in a football match isn’t anything new. Bookmakers have allowed punters to bet on penalties for years with more and more betting options becoming available.
Some options for betting on penalties include:
A Penalty Kick to be Awarded – A wager on a penalty to be awarded to either team in a specific football match. This bet is valid within normal time of the game, and doesn’t include a penalty shootout.
Team to Score a Penalty – A bet on a specific team to be awarded and score a penalty within normal time of the game.
Team to Miss a Penalty – Similar to above but for the team to miss a penalty within normal time.
Method of Victory (Penalties) – This market is available in tournament fixtures where penalties are an option to determine a winner. You’re betting on the game to go to penalties and have the additional option of selecting a team to win on penalties.
In 2024, a new penalty betting market was introduced named ‘Which Way?’. With the Which Way? market, punters can place a bet on the area of the goal a penalty will be scored by a specific player.
Some examples of the Which Way? penalty market can be seen below.
It seems like a pretty simple market but one that has raised questions.
Bookmakers are under constant and increased scrutiny with some types of bets. Every week there are several punters expressing their frustration around bets that have been settled as losers because of players not registering a shot on target, or similar, when it appears they have done.
However, the responsibility of determining whether or not these statistical bets have come in or not, are generally out of the bookmakers hands. The majority of betting sites offering these type of bets use Opta data, and so it is Opta who determine the outcome, often controversially.
Opta have a set of rules that determine whether a shot was on target, whether a tackle was made, or whether a goalkeeper made a save. Some of these events are clear. However, in some instances, a shot on target, or other, can divide opinion.
So, back to betting on which way a penalty will be scored…
The main question from football punters is how to bookmakers determine whether a penalty was scored in the top left, bottom right, down the middle, or anywhere else?
The coordinates at which the ball enters the goal are adjudicated on by Opta who have the following rules:
Opta divide the goal into six equal sections:
A bet on ‘Middle’ includes both the Top Middle and Bottom Middle sections.
By dividing the goal into equal sections, Opta are able to determine which area the penalty was scored much easier. Of course, there will still be instances that divide opinion, but at the end of the day, the outcome will be determined by Opta.
Save and Miss, including hitting the woodwork, can also be backed in this market. If the penalty is saved or missed, any bet on the correct area of the goal will be classed as a losing bet.
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