With the 2020/21 Premier League season officially wrapped up, WhichBookie footy tipster Matt Le Tissier looks ahead to the all-English Champions League final taking place on Saturday as well as giving his initial thoughts on the upcoming Euro 2020 tournament next month.
Champions League Final
Chelsea v Manchester City (20:00 Saturday)
This could be a fascinating game considering what Chelsea have done to City the last two times they have played them. I watched the league game when Chelsea did a bit of a ‘smash ‘n grab’ late on with the winning goal from Marcos Alonso but it would have been out of sight if Aguero had decided to take his penalty properly instead of chip it down the middle. That would have made it 2-0 at half time and it would have been a very different game. Based on that, I’m not sure we can take too much from that league game but the FA Cup semi-final was an interesting one. Tactically, I thought Tuchel was very very good and between these two managers, I think it will be fascinating to see if there will be any changes that they’ll implement heading into this match. Guardiola will be smarting a little bit having lost the last two but if you look at the quality of the players in the two teams, it’s hard to look anywhere else than City winning this game. If Tuchel does pull this off and beats City three times in a row, he’ll be hailed as an absolute tactical genius.
I would back City here just because they have been so much better than any other club in the Premier League this season. It’s just how they cope with being in their first Champions League final I guess. As a club, it’s a huge step and what they have been investing in this past decade. It was for this moment. I’m not sure if that puts an added pressure on the players but you would like to think that they have been through enough now and have won enough Premier League titles that it shouldn’t weigh too heavily on their minds.
What I do hope is that there is an early goal in the game as that should open it up a little bit and then we could see a real toe-to-toe game. We know City won’t hold back and will keep pressing and if they get the first goal, it may open the floodgates for a 3-2 or similar but if there’s not an early goal, it could turn into a tactical battle and end up in a 1-0 which is probably the way Tuchel would prefer it.
|Chelsea v Man City
Man City to win the Champions League 30/1
Man City to win the Champions League
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Chelsea to win the Champions League 40/1
Chelsea to win the Champions League
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I’m going for Spain to win Euro 2020. I think they’re overpriced and even with an each way bet at 9/1, you’d get a good bit of profit back if they reached the final. I just think that they’ve got a good style of play that suits tournament football. They keep possession really well, they conserve energy which I think is quite important and obviously have a fantastic amount of very good footballers who have a lot of big tournament experience amongst them.
There are some very good teams in the tournament and I think will go very close to winning it, but on the odds that are currently available, I think Spain are better value. They’ve got a very solid defence and a good all-round team. Their biggest weakness is probably with de Gea and it will be interesting to see what happens with their goalkeeping situation as they also have Robert Sanchez who has had a terrific season for Brighton and Unai Simon from Athletic Bilbao. That’s probably their weakest position but even that’s not that weak.
Matt le Tissier Euro 2020 Predictions
(Click to enlarge)
|Euro 2020 Winner
Based on the players Gareth has picked for the squad, I was very surprised to see Danny Ings not in it. That’s not just me wearing my Southampton hat as although his niggling injuries this season may not have helped his cause, his goalscoring record the past two seasons have beaten the forwards named in the squad. However, that’s not to say that there are players named in the provisional squad that don’t deserve to be there. Ollie Watkins has had a good season, Mason Greenwood is obviously a very good player and Rashford hasn’t had his best of seasons but we know Gareth will be loyal to those players who have done well for England and you can understand that. Calvert Lewin has gone off the boil a little bit after a very good start to the season but Ings is the one name that stood out for me that wasn’t in the squad. Eric Dyer was perhaps another one given how loyal Southgate has been to him over the years but he has had a very poor season. Danny Ings is a very good footballer and I would have like to have seen him in a team like England with more support as the chances that have been created for him recently at Southampton have been very few and far between. It would have been nice for him to have played in a team that would have created more chances for him and allowed him to get involved in the game a bit more.
The reason I am only going for England to reach the quarter-finals is that I think France are a much stronger squad and I think our weakness is going to be at the back. If there is a team that will expose a weak back-line, it will be France’s forwards. They have so much to choose from in terms of an attacking line-up. They have Benzema, Coman, Giroud, Griezmann and Mbappé which is more than enough to cause problems to England’s weakest areas.
|England to reach QF||8/13||Visit
Euro 2020 Outsider
In my chart above, I’ve backed Turkey to make it to the quarter-finals which would be a pretty good achievement for them. In qualifying, they had one of the most solid defences and if you head into a tournament like this and you have a team that doesn’t concede a lot of goals, then you always have a chance of sneaking through even if it’s on penalties. They have some good players in their squad and are very well organised so they’re my outsider bet. They’re 60/1 to win it with Betfair but you can get 13/5 for them to reach the quarter-finals which I’ve predicted in my chart above.
|Turkey to reach QF||13/5||Visit
Euro 2020 Top Goalscorer
I’m backing Romelu Lukaku to be the Euro 2020 top scorer as he has the players behind him of such great quality who should create plenty of chances for him. I also think Belgium will get quite far in the tournament which will increase his chances.
For an outsider bet, as I think Spain will get to the final, I’d go for Gerard Moreno who has bagged 30 goals for Villarreal this season. You can get a massive 80/1 on him to be the Euro 2020 top scorer with SpreadEx and most other bookies are offering odds of around 50/1. If Spain can get to the final, an each way bet on him may not be a bad shout.
|Euro 2020 Top Scorer
Other Betting Markets
One other Euro 2020 market that caught my eye is ‘To Win All Group Games’. I noticed that you can get over 3/1 on Belgium to win their three group games which I think is a good bet. The only concern is that if they win their first two group games, which may guarantee that they progress, what will they change with their team for their third game? However, their final group stage match is against Finland who they should beat with half a team. I think over 3/1 in this market is a good shout.
|To Win All Group Games