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Falmouth Stakes – Newmarket – Friday 12th July

Friday 12th July 15:35

Horse Racing analyst Will Smith previews Friday's Group 1 Falmouth Stakes at Newmarket's July meeting, and finds a 12/1 each-way selection.

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Bookie Selection Best Odds Market Bet
Sirona 12/112/1 EW 3 places 1/5
Falmouth Stakes - 3.35 Newmarket - Fri 12 Jul
Place BetPlace Bet

Date of Tips: 07/07/2024

Disclaimer The odds for these selections were correct at the time of publishing (12:44 07/07/2024) but may have changed since. Please check the latest price before placing your bet.

Newmarket’s July meeting ranges into view, and with Royal Ascot and the Irish Derby meeting fading well into the rear-view mirrors, it is a time of year and a meeting which can throw up occasional results which go a little against the recent formbook.

Chief among the reasons for why is the recency of Royal Ascot mainly, as so many horses’ season’s will have been geared around those 5 days in Berkshire, and the Newmarket July meeting can be something of an afterthought for those that fare well at Royal Ascot.

This may be perhaps why out of the last 10 runnings of Friday’s Group 1 Tattersalls Falmouth Stakes at 3.35, there have been 7 beaten favourites, and all bar one of them had run at Royal Ascot. Not only that, they had all run huge races at the Royal meeting, with all 6 of them finishing in the first 3 in either the Coronations Stakes or the Duke of Cambridge Stakes. The one exception was Via Sistina, who was beaten as even money favourite in 2022, having won the Pretty Polly Stakes at the Curragh two weekends previously.

With just 9 confirmations at the 5-day stage, and the ante-post market headed by Coronation Stakes winner Porta Fortuna and Duke of Cambridge Stakes winner Running Lion, it is an excellent opportunity to find an each-way alternative with plenty of firms still offering 3 places.

With the ground potentially also going to be against those two Royal Ascot winners, it wouldn’t be beyond the realms of possibility that one or both of them don’t end up running, as there will be plenty of fast ground opportunities as the summer draws on.

Next in is Irish 1,000 Guineas runner-up A Lilac Rolla, and at 5/1 each-way with Ladbrokes or Coral for those 3 places, I could see the case for backing her now. I don’t know if she is a definite runner or not, but it would seem likely and she will be fresher than most.

However, without doubt the bet in the race right now is David Menuisier’s Sirona, at 12/1 each-way with Betfred, Ladbrokes or Coral for 3 places. She looks to be a confirmed runner as Rossa Ryan is jocked up on her, and she wouldn’t have anywhere near as much to find with the market principles as the prices suggest.

It definitely doesn’t look like a vintage Falmouth Stakes and this could be a wise and opportunistic bit of placing by Menuisier, in order to pick up some Group 1 black-type, and who knows, maybe even go and win the race.

Her two runs for Menuisier over 7f have been excellent, suggesting that she has improved markedly for the stable switch, and staying-on efforts in Group 3’s at Lingfield Park and Haydock Park strongly suggest that going back up to 1m will suit her.

Sirona’s best form for her previous trainer was also on softish ground, so she won’t mind the showery forecast this week one bit, and looks an excellent bet to me at 12/1 each-way with Betfred, Coral or Ladbrokes right now for 3 places. I’d be amazed if both the combination of price and place terms are available as we get nearer the day.

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