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July Cup – Newmarket – Saturday 13th July

Saturday 13th July 16:35

Horse Racing expert Will Smith provides his second ante-post bet of the week for Newmarket's July meeting, recommending a 25/1 EW chance in Saturday's Group 1 July Cup.

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Bookie Selection Best Odds Market Bet
Swingalong 33/133/1 EW 3 places 1/5
July Cup - 4.35 Newmarket - Sat 13 Jul
Place BetPlace Bet

Date of Tips: 08/07/2024

Disclaimer The odds for these selections were correct at the time of publishing (15:02 08/07/2024) but may have changed since. Please check the latest price before placing your bet.

Group 1 sprints are hard to win, and unless you have a clear sprinting superstar, then the factors that define sprint races on the day can often lend themselves to horses getting their opportunity, and then perhaps not having the same kind of set up the next time.

Saturday’s Group 1 My Pension Expert July Cup at 4.35 on Newmarket’s July course is one such example of a Group 1 sprint that has only ever seen 5 back-to-back winners of the race, and not since 1958/59 has that feat been achieved.

A large reason for that may be that it is the perfect time for a young sprinter to peak, and then be whisked off to stud. But equally, the nuanced nature of sprint races could hopefully wind back around to give Karl Burke’s 4-year-old filly Swingalong a chance to win the big one she perhaps deserves.

When seeing her confirmed as Karl Burke’s only representative for the race, among a current field of 13, I nearly choked on my late morning coffee to see that she was readily available at 25/1 each-way for the July Cup.

This is a horse who was denied just ½ length by a dual Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes winner in that race at Royal Ascot 3 weeks ago. As the week went on at Ascot, the wind turned around and by the last two days, it was into the faces of the runners on the straight course, as evidenced by a number of winners being covered up.

Swingalong, as is her won’t, certainly wasn’t covered up and if you look at the other 4 horses who either led or raced prominently, then she has fared best in a close runner-up spot by a country mile.

Shartash was beaten 5¼ lengths into 8th (and has since run a cracker in a Group 3 at Deauville), Washington Heights was 6¼ lengths back in 10th (having won the Abernant and finished a close 3rd in the Duke of York Stakes), Quinault was a further ¼ length back in 11th and Champions Sprint winner Art Power just behind him in 12th.

Swingalong has not only run a massive career best, but she has done so against the grain quite significantly. Newmarket’s July course could quite conceivably suit her much better than Ascot, and so the general 25/1 each-way on offer is quite simply ludicrous in my eyes.

The market has jumped to the assumption that the 3-year-olds are the generation to focus on, with 4 of the 5 quoted in single figures. Yes, 3-year-olds do win the July Cup, but so too do improving 4-year-old fillies (Alcohol Free in 2022).

As I can see it, she may only have competition on the front end from Inisherin and Art Power, but she is tough, improving and won’t mind which way the ground goes, and so could easily go very, very close to landing Karl Burke his first ever July Cup.

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