Paddy Power Gold Cup – 2.20 Cheltenham – Saturday 14th November

The market for the Paddy Power Gold Cup Handicap Chase at 2.20 at Cheltenham on Saturday, the first big ante-post betting race of the jumps season, has firmly taken shape. The likes of Meetmebythesea, Quebecois, Madara and Blueking D’Oroux have a;; met with notable support or movement at various times.

Last season’s Festival winners Meetmebythesea and Madara were always going to be popular, while Blueking D’Oroux is interesting on his first start for Dan Skelton, and Quebecois has been rightfully popular since Paul Nicholls began a positive surge in the last few weeks.

However, there are noises about ground issues for Madara, the trail on Blueking D’Oroux has gone a little cold and Quebecois has fluffed his lines late on more than once and needs to prove to me that he’s not a little ‘soft’ when it matters.

Meetmebythesea had the perfect position in the run for his Festival win, and while the form looks strong, it would be an excellent piece of training for a yard whose runners have perhaps just been slightly better for their initial runs. However, no stone will have been left unturned I’m sure and the yard have produced Vanderpoel and Taurus Bay to win first time up, so he’ll be ready, but he’s priced accordingly now.

At this stage, the one horse who has flown massively under the radar and could be the late shortener is July Flower for Henry De Bromhead. Available widely at 10/1 each-way for 4 places, though if you were of the inclination to plump for win only or lesser place terms, then 12/1 with Ladbrokes or Coral is also available for 3 places.

Winner of the Arkle Trial last season, which was the race before Panic Attack won the Paddy Power Gold Cup itself, it was a notable feature of July Flower’s win that her final circuit time was much quicker than Panic Attack et al. That owed much to a mid-race injection of pace from July Flower and Be Aware, and even still she was able to run a slightly faster sectional from the second last to the line, compared with Panic Attack. Some effort.

I do think this year’s renewal is a bit stronger than the one Panic Attack won, and so July Flower will have to be slightly better than that perhaps, but if you watch back her Grade 1 3m novice chase run at the Punchestown Festival in April and see her canter all over some proven Grade 1 novices off a strong pace, then there’s every reason to suggest that 2m4f on decent ground will improve her, and she’s trained by a genius at getting them ready for early autumn and spring targets.