Adrian Mannarino vs Alejandro Tabilo Prediction, ATP Chengdu Day 3 Betting Tips

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Day three of the ATP Chengdu Open brings us the round of 16, and there is plenty to get stuck into. Four matches are on the card, headlined by defending champion Alejandro Tabilo taking on the wily Adrian Mannarino in what should be a fascinating clash of lefties and styles. Here is how I see all four playing out.

Jenson Brooksby vs Lorenzo Sonego

Brooksby got his Chengdu campaign off to a decent start, finally getting one over Sebastian Baez after losing their first two encounters. The American edged it 7-5 7-5, which is exactly the kind of tight, gritty win that suits his game. He now faces Lorenzo Sonego for the first time at tour level, with the Italian having looked comfortable enough in his own opener, dismissing James Duckworth 6-4 6-4 without too much fuss.

This is genuinely difficult to call. Sonego at his best is capable of overpowering just about anyone, while Brooksby makes life deeply uncomfortable with his unorthodox patterns and ability to disrupt opponents’ timing. Neither player gives you much of a template to work from, which makes this one of those matches where you just have to pick a side and commit. I am going with the Italian to get through, though it will not be straightforward.

Prediction: Sonego in 3

Denis Shapovalov vs Vit Kopriva

Shapovalov comes into this one seeded seventh and carrying a score to settle. The only previous meeting between these two came at Gstaad in 2021, when Kopriva, ranked somewhere around 249 at the time, pulled off one of the more memorable upsets of his career to claim his first top ten win. Shapovalov has not had the most consistent season, sitting at 17-18 for the year, though a final in Los Cabos showed the quality is still there. He looked properly sharp in round one, putting up 11 aces and 32 winners in a clean 6-4 7-6(3) win over Tallon Griekspoor.

Kopriva is not someone to dismiss lightly. The Czech is 25-26 on the season and world number 71, and he came through his opener against Jia Hu in straight sets without dropping a set either. His best chance here is to slow things down, keep the ball in play, and make Shapovalov work for every single point. The problem is that when the Canadian’s serve is humming and his forehand is loaded, that kind of defensive strategy tends to get punished heavily. Kopriva might make it uncomfortable early on, but the weight of Shapovalov’s striking should eventually take over.

Prediction: Shapovalov in 2

Botic van de Zandschulp vs Nikoloz Basilashvili

Basilashvili’s win in the previous round genuinely turned a few heads. The Georgian qualifier, who is a rare sight on the main tour at this stage of his career, swatted aside Miomir Kecmanovic with big hitting and a real freedom in his game. It was a proper throwback performance, and you could see why the old Basilashvili at his peak was such a handful. Credit where it is due, that was a quality result.

Van de Zandschulp is a very different proposition though. The Dutchman rolls into Chengdu off a run to the US Open quarterfinals and has won 11 of his last 15 matches. That is serious form, and he brings a level of consistency and efficiency that Basilashvili will find hard to match. The Georgian will probably crack some big forehands and keep things interesting, but if Van de Zandschulp plays anything close to the level he showed in New York, he should have enough to see this one through.

Prediction: Van de Zandschulp in 3

Adrian Mannarino vs Alejandro Tabilo

Mannarino did exactly what experienced campaigners know how to do, walking into a stadium full of Chinese supporters backing wildcard Juncheng Shang and completely suffocating the occasion. It was a cool, professional job from the Frenchman, who has built an entire career on making opponents feel like they are playing against something they cannot quite get hold of. His low, flat game and left-handed angles create problems for virtually everyone on his day.

The issue is that his opponent here is Alejandro Tabilo, the defending champion and third seed, who arrives in outstanding form this season. This is their first meeting, and on paper the Chilean’s firepower should be the decisive factor. When Tabilo’s serve is running hot and his forehand is working, he can dismantle players before they get a foothold in the match. Mannarino will look to keep the ball low and draw Tabilo into longer exchanges, but I think the seed has too many weapons for that to work consistently across two sets. Tabilo advances.

Prediction: Tabilo in 2

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