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What Factors Influence a Bookie’s Odds?

What Factors Influence a Bookie’s Odds?

When it comes to calculating the odds a bookie provides, many factors come into play. Part of it is down to form, and other changes in the price will depend on variable factors within the sport itself. As a better, it can help to know what they are so you can spot favourable odds and influences that may have been overlooked. Below, we dive into what factors influence a bookie’s odds.  

Who Sets the Odds? 

The bookmakers themselves set the odds for any wagers. A certain level of watching the market is involved, combined with knowing the sports, what is going on behind the scenes and how the markets are changing. In the past, this would have been the main way bets were set.  

Today, a high level of API and automated statistical data can also help a bookmaker. These will take data from statistics and convert them to percentages predicting certain outcomes, which will help a bookmaker set odds. However, punters can also use them to find a good bet. One such service for football fans is KickForm, which provides data and outcomes based on science for matches across the globe.  

Historical Data and Form 

One of the key statistics that will help determine form is the historical data provided on the team or player, or more recently, their current form. Historical data will include statistics based on everything from how the team has performed in certain tournaments or leagues to how they may have done at this point in a season.  

Form is a more current analysis, showing how the team or player has performed in their recent few games. Perhaps in a league, a team may be on a great run racking up wins, or even bettering their results away from home. It will also include any injuries or suspensions for certain players. Not only can taking key players away from the game leave a hole in a squad, but it can also negatively influence team morale.  

There will also be environmental factors taken into account. Home advantage is the most obvious, but even weather can influence a game. For example, Brazil is more likely to struggle to play in the wet February London weather than England, who are used to the conditions. 

Markets and Public Opinion 

betting markets

The way the betting market changes can also impact price. Like any industry, bookmakers need to stay competitive. Therefore, if others offer more favourable odds they will have to change to stay in line with the market. Large sums of money going on a bet can also impact the possible price given.  

Finally, bookmakers listen to what fans and pundits are saying. This is perhaps the most important job of a bookmaker today, as it is something that algorithms and statistical data can not quantify. It could be the possible impact of a new big signing at a club or the fierce rivalry between local teams.  Always be aware that these prices change, often by the hour. If you are trying to juggle all these factors to look for good bets, it can be impossible. Use statistics to help, check what the markets are saying, and then look at a range of bookmakers. Crucially, remember to gamble responsibly.  

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