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Alanyaspor
TrabzonsporThere is a decent tension to this one. Trabzonspor roll into the Alanya Oba Stadium riding a five-match winning streak in the Super Lig, genuine title contenders breathing down Galatasaray’s neck. And yet Alanyaspor have a history of making life difficult for the Black Sea Storm at this ground, something that gives this fixture a bit more bite than the league positions alone might suggest. Throw in a Trabzonspor side that just took a dent in European competition and a home outfit desperately searching for a way to stop the rot, and you have got a fixture with genuine intrigue beyond the obvious form narrative.
The question is whether Alanyaspor can tap into that historical resilience against this opponent, or whether a defence that shipped five goals last time out simply has too many cracks in it to hold back a Trabzonspor attack that has been purring in recent weeks.
This Turkish Super Lig clash takes place at the Alanya Oba Stadium, with Alanyaspor desperate to arrest a troubling slide down the table while Trabzonspor aim to keep the pressure on leaders Galatasaray and consolidate their grip on third place.
Alanyaspor have a couple of significant concerns heading into this one, and given how badly their defensive structure fell apart against Genclerbirligi, the injury news could not come at a worse time.
Trabzonspor have a lengthier injury list of their own, though the depth in Thomas Reis’s squad softens the blow considerably.
Joao Pereira looks set to persist with the back three setup that was exposed so badly in Ankara, with Ozyurt likely to continue in the absence of Aksoy. The wing-backs in Hadergjonaj and Ruan will need to offer more defensive cover than they have recently, because leaving gaps against Ernest Muci and Mohamed Salah would be an absolute disaster. Up front, Kaya and Cedric will need to work tirelessly if Alanyaspor are going to get anything out of this.
Trabzonspor are expected to line up with Onana in goal, a back four of Pina, Savic, Nwaiwu and the returning Lopes Cabral, Fabinho and Kabasakal anchoring the midfield, and the creative force of Saviolo and Muci supporting Salah from wide, with Onuachu leading the line. Reis may well rotate given the European exertions midweek, but the core of this side has enough quality to handle most things the Super Lig throws at it.
Alanyaspor’s form has completely unravelled over the past few weeks. What looked like a solid mid-table outfit during a four-game unbeaten run, two wins, two draws, conceding just three goals, has suddenly turned into a side that cannot keep anyone out. Three consecutive league defeats, 10 goals conceded, and a 5-0 hammering in Ankara that will have left Pereira staring at his tactics board in disbelief. The only flicker of positivity came in the Turkish Cup with a 4-1 win over Bingol, but that feels like a footnote against the broader picture of a side that has completely lost its defensive shape.
Their home form in the league is also a concern worth noting. Alanyaspor have not won any of their last three league games at the Alanya Oba Stadium, drawing twice and losing one. Their solitary home league win this season came against Besiktas, so the idea of this venue being some kind of fortress right now simply does not hold up to scrutiny.
Trabzonspor, by contrast, are the form team of the division. Five straight league wins, more points collected than anyone else across the last five matchdays, and a seven-game winning run across all competitions before Thursday’s 1-0 home defeat to Freiburg brought it to an end. Victories over Galatasaray, Besiktas and Samsunspor along the way tell you this is not a soft run of fixtures they have been padding their record against. Their away form has also clicked into gear after a slow start on the road, with three consecutive wins away from home across all competitions suggesting they have sorted out whatever early travel sickness they had.
This is where it gets genuinely interesting. Despite Trabzonspor’s obvious superiority in current form, Alanyaspor have an unusually good record against them in this fixture. The hosts have gone unbeaten in their last three competitive meetings with Trabzonspor, winning one and drawing two. At the Alanya Oba Stadium specifically, they have not lost in four consecutive home fixtures against the Black Sea Storm, winning three and drawing one. Go back further and Alanyaspor have lost just twice in their last 10 home meetings with Trabzonspor, winning five and drawing three. That is the kind of record that makes you think twice before writing the home side off entirely, regardless of what their current league form looks like.
The historical record between these sides gives you pause, but the current state of Alanyaspor’s defence makes it very hard to trust them against an attack as potent as Trabzonspor’s. The European defeat to Freiburg is a minor consideration, but Reis’s side have too much quality and momentum for one midweek wobble to derail their domestic campaign. The angle here is leaning toward Trabzonspor to get the job done, with goals very much on the menu given how exposed Alanyaspor’s back line has been.
Trabzonspor like to control games through territorial dominance, and against a side under pressure at home they are likely to generate a healthy volume of set-piece opportunities. Alanyaspor will also need to push forward if they go behind, which should open space for Trabzonspor to win corners on the break. Backing over 10 corners looks like a sensible call here.
Alanyaspor are likely to be chasing the game and their frustration could boil over, particularly with a depleted defence under sustained pressure. Games where one side is clearly on the back foot and needs to foul to disrupt tend to generate a decent card count. Over 3.5 cards feels achievable in this one.
Alanyaspor’s recent head-to-head record means they should not be completely written off, and they will carry a threat going forward. But Trabzonspor’s firepower and momentum points to a 1-2 away win, with the home side grabbing one to make it interesting before the visitors seal it.
With Alanyaspor conceding freely and Trabzonspor’s attack featuring Salah, Muci and Onuachu, over 2.5 goals feels like a very reasonable expectation. The last time these sides met there was plenty of action, and the current form book on both sides of the ball suggests goals will not be hard to come by here.
Alanyaspor have enough going forward to nick one, and even in their worst defensive display of the season they were still creating chances at the other end. Trabzonspor’s defence is solid but not impenetrable, as Freiburg showed. BTTS yes feels right given the attacking quality available and Alanyaspor’s tendency to stay in games at home against this opponent.
| Market | Selection |
|---|---|
| Match Result | Trabzonspor to Win |
| Both Teams To Score | Yes |
| Total Corners | Over 10 |
Trabzonspor winning while both sides score fits the narrative of a game where the visitors have the firepower to take control but Alanyaspor’s historical record in this fixture suggests they will not go down without leaving a mark.
Trabzonspor are the better side right now, full stop. Their five-game winning streak in the league is built on results against quality opposition, and their attack has the tools to hurt any defence in Turkey, let alone one that has been as shaky as Alanyaspor’s recently. The European defeat to Freiburg might knock a fraction of confidence, but Reis’s squad is well-drilled enough to compartmentalise that and refocus on domestic matters.
That said, Alanyaspor’s home record in this specific fixture is too strong to ignore completely, and they will fancy their chances of at least contributing to the game. A 1-2 Trabzonspor win feels like the most likely outcome, with the visitors doing enough to claim three points that keep them right in the title conversation.
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