Argentina vs Benin Prediction, Betting Tips & Preview

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Argentina

vs

Benin

KickoffWednesday 7 October 2026, 12:00am

VenueEstadio Mâs Monumental

CompetitionInternational Friendlies

How do you even begin to preview a match like this? On one level, Argentina vs Benin is a friendly between a world champion and a side ranked 87 places below them in the FIFA standings. On another level entirely, it is one of the most emotionally loaded nights in the history of international football. Lionel Messi, 39 years old, 207 caps, 125 goals, two Copa Americas, a Finalissima and a World Cup winner’s medal in his back pocket, is walking out one final time for the nation he has defined for nearly two decades. This is not really a preview about who wins. It is about bearing witness.

That said, there are still bets to be had, and Argentina are heavy favourites for obvious reasons. Let us break it all down properly.

Argentina vs Benin Match Details

The match takes place at the Estadio Monumental in Buenos Aires, one of the great stages in world football and a ground where Messi has represented his country 28 times. It is the perfect venue for a farewell of this magnitude, and the atmosphere inside that stadium is going to be something to behold. This is an international friendly, Argentina’s third of the October window, and Benin’s first trip to South America for what will be the first ever meeting between these two nations.

Team News

Argentina have a couple of absentees and doubts to navigate, though Scaloni has enough quality in reserve that it barely registers. Benin have their own selection headaches, with travel and administrative issues disrupting their preparations.

• Lionel Messi starts. That is confirmed. This is his farewell appearance and he will be in the XI from the first whistle.
• Nicolas Otamendi is also set to play his final international, having come out of retirement specifically to be part of this occasion.
• Nicolas Tagliafico is a doubt after missing the wins over Bolivia and Burkina Faso through injury.
• Juan Foyth and Thiago Almada both withdrew from the original squad with injury.
• Rodrigo De Paul and Giovani Lo Celso could come back into the starting lineup after being rested for the previous two friendlies.
• Lautaro Martinez is likely to drop to the bench to make room for Messi in attack.
• For Benin, right back Abdoul Rachid Moumini cannot travel due to administrative problems.
• Dokou Dodo has returned to his club after making substitute appearances earlier in the window.
• Forward Sahid Ngobi has been added to the travelling squad and could feature.

Predicted Lineups

Scaloni will want to give Messi the best possible platform for his send off, and bringing De Paul and Lo Celso back into the engine room makes sense. Both are experienced operators who know how to get the best out of Messi, and this occasion demands that kind of familiarity around him. Julian Alvarez alongside Messi in attack is the natural call given Martinez stepping aside.

Argentina likely XI: Martinez; Giay, Otamendi, Romero, Medina; De Paul, Mac Allister, Lo Celso, Paz; Messi, Alvarez. Benin will likely line up in a structured shape designed to limit space, with Aloko the focal point up front after his brace against Mauritania. Their XI: Djandjinou; Azongnitode, Roche, Tijani, Ourou; Hassane, D’Almeida; Aloko, Olaitan, Ourorou; Tosin.

Recent Form

Argentina have been absolutely ruthless in this window. A 4-0 dismantling of Bolivia was followed by a staggering 7-0 thumping of Burkina Faso, and while the latter was aided by Burkina Faso travelling with an inexperienced group, you still have to put the ball in the net. Scaloni used the two games to rotate and experiment, which means some of Argentina’s more established names are fresh and ready for this one. Messi himself has been in the kind of form that makes you forget he is 39, scoring in each of his last four appearances for Inter Miami and netting 12 goals in 13 club outings since the World Cup final.

Benin arrive in better shape than you might expect. They lost 5-1 to Togo in June, which was a chastening result, but they have bounced back well in their Africa Cup of Nations qualification campaign. A 1-1 draw with Burkina Faso was followed by a 2-1 home win against Mauritania, with Rodolfo Aloko grabbing both goals. That Mauritania result was notable because it was the first time Benin had scored more than once in a game since beating Lesotho 4-0 in September 2025. They have also kept it tight defensively, conceding more than one goal in just one of their last six matches.

The issue, of course, is that none of that defensive solidity has been tested against anything remotely close to an Argentina attack with Messi in it. Burkina Faso just shipped seven here. Benin’s back line will be in for a long evening.

Head-to-Head Record

There is no head to head record to speak of because this is the first time these two nations have ever met. That in itself adds something to the occasion. Messi has scored against 63 different nations throughout his international career, and Benin have the unfortunate distinction of being invited to become number 64. Argentina at home in a farewell match for their greatest ever player, with the whole country behind them and the Estadio Monumental packed to the rafters, is about as daunting a debut fixture as Benin could have drawn.

Key Stats

• Messi has scored 125 goals in 207 international appearances, including 21 in 34 World Cup games. He has scored against 63 different nations.
• Argentina have scored 11 goals without reply in their two previous matches this window.
• Benin have conceded more than one goal in just one of their last six games, though they are about to face a step up in quality that makes that run largely irrelevant as a reference point.

Argentina vs Benin Betting Tips

This is as straightforward a betting landscape as you will find. Argentina are going to win, they are going to score several goals, and the crowd is going to will Messi onto the scoresheet all night long. The value is not in the result market but in picking the right angles around how the game will play out. Here are the markets that stand out.

Over and Under Goals Prediction

Argentina put seven past Burkina Faso and four past Bolivia without Messi. Now he arrives for his farewell, the crowd will be electric, and Scaloni’s side will be desperate to send him off in style. Benin have kept it tight recently but this is a completely different level of opposition. Over 3.5 goals looks like the play here, and over 4.5 is not without appeal either.

Cards Prediction

This is a friendly with low competitive stakes, which usually keeps the card count down. Benin will defend hard and there may be some cynical fouls as Argentina cut through them, but neither side has reason to go over the top. Under 3.5 cards feels right for a game that should be played in a celebratory spirit rather than a combative one.

Corners Prediction

Argentina dominated territory against their last two opponents and generated corners at a high rate. Benin are likely to defend deep and invite pressure, which means Argentina will be probing wide and delivering into the box repeatedly. Over 9.5 corners looks well within reach given the expected pattern of play, with Argentina contributing the vast majority of them.

First Goalscorer Prediction

It has to be Messi, does it not? He is in the form of his life, his teammates will be feeding him all night, 80,000 Argentinians will be screaming his name from the first whistle, and every player on that pitch will want to give him the perfect send off. At the prices available he may not represent outright value, but emotionally and analytically, he is the only name worth writing down here.

Bet Builder Tip

A dominant Argentina performance with Messi on the scoresheet early sets up all three of these selections to land together in what should be a one sided and high volume attacking display.

Final Match Prediction

Messi scores, the Estadio Monumental loses its mind, and Argentina run out comfortable winners. Benin will give everything they have and they deserve credit for travelling and competing, but the gulf in class is simply too wide to bridge. This is a night for celebration rather than contest.

Predicted score: Argentina 5-0 Benin.

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