Belarus vs San Marino Prediction, Betting Tips & Preview

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Belarus

vs

San Marino

KickoffSaturday 3 October 2026, 5:00pm

VenueIllovszky Rudolf Stadion

CompetitionUEFA Nations League

San Marino rocking up in Minsk. On paper this looks like the kind of fixture where you already know the result before a ball is kicked, but there are always questions worth asking. Can Belarus actually do a job here after a slow start to their Nations League campaign? And is there any universe in which San Marino avoid another hammering? Let us work through it properly.

Belarus vs San Marino Match Details

This fixture is part of Group 1 in League C of the 2026-27 UEFA Nations League, with Belarus hosting at home in Minsk. Both sides are looking to get something positive on the board after difficult starts to this campaign, though the contexts are very different. Belarus still have a realistic shot at pushing up the group, while San Marino are simply trying to find some dignity in what has been a brutal opening run.

Team News

Neither side is carrying too many selection worries heading into this one, which makes the team news relatively straightforward.

• Belarus gaffer Viktor Goncharenko has no fresh injury concerns to deal with and could name an unchanged starting eleven from their goalless draw with Finland.
• Vitaly Lisakovich leads the line for Belarus, a forward who has seven international goals to his name across 28 caps and will fancy his chances against this San Marino backline.
• Max Ebong is expected to keep his place in midfield for the home side.
• Alessandro Golinucci returns to the San Marino squad after sitting out through suspension, and the experienced 31 year old should slot straight back into the starting side.
• Nicola Nanni starts up front for Roberto Cevoli’s men, the 26 year old being one of the few San Marino players who can genuinely cause problems going forward, with five international goals from 57 caps.
• Gabriel Capicchioni is also expected to feature from kick off for the visitors.

Predicted Lineups

Goncharenko looks set to stick with what he knows. The shape that ground out a point against Finland showed some solidity, and with Lisakovich and Barkovskiy in the forward positions, there is enough quality to carve open a San Marino defence that has shipped ten goals in two games this campaign.

Belarus: Lapoukhov; Kalinin, Volkov, Gomanov, Pechenin; Lukashov, Selyava, Ebong, Shumansky; Barkovskiy, Lisakovich

For San Marino, Cevoli welcomes Golinucci back into the fold and that does at least add some experience in the middle of the park. Nanni and Gabriel Capicchioni will work hard up top, as they always do, but they will need a miracle performance from Colombo in goal if they are to keep the scoreline remotely respectable.

San Marino: Colombo; Benvenuti, Cevoli, Rossi, Giocondi; Mularoni, L Capicchioni, Golinucci, Pancotti; Nanni, G Capicchioni

Recent Form

Belarus have made a stuttering start to this Nations League cycle. The 2-0 defeat to Albania on matchday one was a poor result, but the point earned against Finland at least showed some defensive backbone and suggests Goncharenko has steadied the ship somewhat. In League C terms, they remain a team with genuine quality relative to the bottom feeders, and their overall Nations League record of eight wins from 25 games tells you they know how to get over the line at this level.

San Marino, bless them, are in dire straits. A 7-0 battering at the hands of Finland followed by a 3-0 defeat to Albania means they have conceded ten goals and scored precisely none in their opening two games. Sixteen losses from their last 17 matches in all competitions is a brutal run by any measure, and their last victory came against Liechtenstein back in November 2024. That is a long time without a win.

What makes it even tougher to argue for San Marino here is that their Nations League record overall reads two wins, three draws and fourteen defeats from nineteen games, with just five goals scored across that entire span. They are not a team that suddenly clicks into gear on the road. The improvement needed to take anything from this game would be enormous.

Head-to-Head Record

These two sides have only ever met twice before, and both occasions came during the 2018-19 Nations League. Belarus won 5-0 in one meeting and 2-0 in the other. That is a pretty emphatic statement of the gap between these two nations at international level, and there is very little in the current form of either side to suggest the story will be dramatically different this time around.

San Marino have never taken a point off Belarus, and with the home side having home advantage in Minsk this weekend, Cevoli’s men will need something very special to avoid adding another defeat to that head to head record.

Key Stats

• San Marino have conceded 10 goals in just two Nations League games this campaign, an average of five per match.
• Belarus have kept a clean sheet in their last outing, suggesting some defensive organisation, while San Marino are yet to score in this Nations League campaign.
• San Marino have scored in only five of their nineteen Nations League games, making BTTS an extremely tough sell when they are involved.

Belarus vs San Marino Betting Tips

This is one of those fixtures where the betting angle is less about finding value in the result market and more about picking the right corners, goals and scoreline markets. Belarus should win comfortably. The question is really about the margin and whether San Marino can get a consolation on the board. Given their record, the smart money is on a clean sheet for the home side.

Corners Prediction

Belarus will be on the front foot for long stretches of this game and should rack up a healthy corner count. San Marino will spend much of the match defending deep, which tends to generate corners rather than concede them back. Expect a lopsided tally heavily in Belarus’s favour, and the overall corners total should comfortably clear the ten mark. Back over 9.5 corners.

Cards Prediction

San Marino will have to foul their way out of trouble at various points as Belarus press forward, which should see a few bookings for the visitors. This is not the kind of heated derby that generates red cards, but a couple of yellows for San Marino as they try to disrupt the home side’s rhythm feels very likely. Under 4.5 cards is a reasonable call, with perhaps two or three bookings across the ninety minutes.

Correct Score Prediction

Given that Belarus won 5-0 and 2-0 in the two previous meetings and San Marino have not found the net in any of their last two Nations League outings, a 3-0 home win looks the most sensible call. Belarus have enough firepower to put three past this side without being at their absolute best, and a clean sheet feels well within reach for Goncharenko’s back four.

Over and Under Goals Prediction

San Marino have been leaking goals at an alarming rate this campaign, and Belarus have the attacking players to expose a very limited defensive unit. Over 2.5 goals looks like it should be nailed on in this one. The bigger question is whether it goes even higher, but three or four goals for Belarus and a clean sheet feels the most likely scenario. Over 2.5 goals is the call.

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) Prediction

San Marino have scored in only five of their nineteen Nations League matches ever played, and they have yet to register a single goal in this campaign. Belarus kept a clean sheet against Finland last time out and will be well organised at the back. BTTS No is the only sensible pick here, and it looks like very good value given San Marino’s chronic inability to find the net.

First Goalscorer Prediction

Vitaly Lisakovich is the standout pick here. Seven goals in 28 caps for Belarus is a solid return at international level, and he will be leading the line against a San Marino defence that has been carved apart repeatedly in this campaign. With Belarus likely to dominate possession and create plenty of chances early on, Lisakovich as first goalscorer looks a very attractive option.

Bet Builder Tip

Belarus winning, keeping a clean sheet and hitting over 2.5 goals all point in exactly the same direction given the quality gap and San Marino’s inability to score in this competition.

Final Match Prediction

There is really no way to talk yourself into a San Marino result here. They have been hammered in both of their previous meetings with Belarus, they have not scored once in this Nations League campaign, and they have lost sixteen of their last seventeen games across all competitions. Belarus are not a great side by any stretch, but they are streets ahead of their opponents on Saturday and they will know it.

A 3-0 home win is the prediction. Lisakovich to get on the scoresheet, Belarus to control proceedings from start to finish, and San Marino to head home with nothing to show for their efforts. Harsh but fair on La Serenissima, who will have a tough trip to Albania to look forward to next.

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